CC BY
1Hydrometeorology and ecology №4 2024
UDC 556.536
IRSTI 37.27.17
IMPACT OF THE ZHAIYK RIVER ON CASPIAN SEA LEVEL
A.Yeltay PhD, G. Shishkina, N. Zhagparova, L. Bazarbay*
RSE «Kazhydromet», Astana, Kazakhstan
E-mail: [email protected]
The Caspian Sea is subject to multi-year, seasonal and short-period changes in level, especially
due to the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors. The conducted correlation and
regression analysis of water level data of the river Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city and the Caspian Sea Peshnoy Station showed a fairly high linear relationship (r=0,93, R2=0,87) between the long-term
average daily values of characteristics for 2006...2023. Rise in the Zhaiyk river - Atyrau city in
the period of low water is directly reflected in the sea level rise at the sea Peshnoy Station, which
was clearly seen in the current year. Thus, space images of Sentinel-2 L2A satellite for April-May
2024 recorded the inflow of river water into the Caspian Sea. The assessment of the relationship
between the characteristics under consideration showed that high correlations are not the main
factor in determining the impact of the Zhaiyk river flow of the sea, for its northeastern part, other
factors of level change (storm winds, tidal events and others) should be considered in particular.
Keywords: level, correlation, regression, change, northeast section.
Accepted: 06.06.2024 y.
DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-115-4-7-14
INTRODUCTION
The coastal zones of seas and oceans are
key to ecosystems and human activities, including
for the 700 million people living in low-lying
coastal and island regions below 10 meters above
sea level (UN Chronicle, 2024; Sea Level Rise
and Coastal Inundation, 2024). These areas are
exposed to significant risks, including sea level
fluctuations, storm surges and coastal erosion.
As the largest body of water in
Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea has a significant
impact on the coastal regions of the country’s
west. The hydrometeorological regime of the
Caspian Sea is influenced by a range of factors,
including climate and human activity in the basin
main rivers. The observed climatic changes in the
sea area are characterised by an increase in mean
annual and seasonal surface air temperatures,
an increase in the frequency of extremely high
daily temperatures, the duration of heat waves
and changes in the precipitation regime. The
rate of increase of average annual temperatures
in the Caspian region ranges from 0,24 °C to
0,43 °C per 10 years, which confirms the high
rate of climate change. The maximum warming
is observed in the winter-spring period, which
may negatively affect the hydrological regime
of rivers such as the Zhaiyk, which is a key
source of water inflow to the Caspian Sea. During
the conditionally natural period, the average
annual flow was 327 m³/s, while in subsequent
years this indicator decreased to 279 m³/s and
294 m³/s, respectively (Dolgikh, 2021). Until
now, about 19 large reservoirs have been built,
which regulate the flow of the main rivers of the
Caspian Sea basin (Mitina, Malashenkov, 2013).
It’s notable that Caspian Sea main sources
of nutrition are the Volga, Terek, Zhaiyk (Ural),
Kura and other rivers, as well as precipitation
falling over the sea area (Caspian Sea, 2024). For
the observed Kazakhstan part of the Caspian Sea,
the Zhaiyk (Ural) is the main river flowing into
it, which occur between April and June, and a
decreasing trend in flow over recent decades.
The region has seen the number of days
with temperatures above 30 °C increase by 1...8
days every 10 years, and days with minimum
temperatures below 0 °C decrease by 2...5 days.
Positive changes of annual precipitation are also
observed at Peshnoy Station. (Ivkina et al., 2020;
Davletgaliev, 2015). In recent years (2020 to
2023) an increase in rainfall has been recorded,
especially in 2023 the rainfall totaled 214,6 mm.
Before that it was: 2020...89,4 mm, 2021...77,1,
2022...166,2 mm. (Data from the website CliWare
2.1.02)
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Scientific article
The northeastern part of the Caspian Sea is
included in the state protected zone in the northern
part of the Caspian Sea (Environmental Code of the
Republic of Kazakhstan, 2021), which establishes a
certain regime to preserve the ecological balance of
the region.
The present study examines the impact of the
Zhaiyk river (Ural) on the level of the Caspian Sea
in its shallow northeastern part during the 2024 flood
period.
Yeltay et al. Impact of the Zhaiyk river...
where, xi is the value of the actual variable, x - the
mean or norm of the actual variable, yi is the value
of the variable being compared, (y) – the mean or
norm of the variable being compared;
Regression analysis was used to determine
the nature of the relationship between the
characteristics and to construct a regression
relationship.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Because of its shallowness, the northeastern part of the sea is subject to frequent
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In this paper the dependence between the changes in sea level, both perennial and seasonal,
level of the Caspian Sea in its northeastern part as well as short-term changes under the influence
near the Peshnoy Station and the water level on the of strong winds and tides.
During the period of systematic
Zhaiyk river– Atyrau city with the use of data from
observations at the Peshnoy Station for
RSE «Kazhydromet» (Annual data on the regime and
1929...2023, the sea level fluctuated around minus
resources of surface waters of land...rivers Ural, 2023;
27,67 m (BS – Baltic system), with a maximum
Annual data on the regime of the Caspian Sea, 2022)
of -26,04 m (BS) and a minimum of -28,86 m
based on correlation and regression analysis of data
(BS) (Figure 1). The sea level data at Peshnoy
for the period 2006...2023.
Station were taken from the General Catalogue of
The Pearson correlation coefficient is one of the Caspian Sea Level available at the official site
the main tools for assessing the linear relationship of CASPCOM (http://www.caspcom.com/index.
between river levels and sea levels. The correlation php?razd=sess&lang=1&sess=17&podsess=61).
between the levels of the Zhaiyk river and the level of Since 2006 the sea level at Peshnoy Station has
the Caspian Sea shows peculiarities depending on the been on a downward trend and by 2023 it has
season. Summer months are characterised by a lower decreased by 1,67 m compared to 2006 to minus
correlation, which is explained by a decrease in river -28,72 m (BS).
flow due to evaporation and lower precipitation.
Therefore, further calculations were made
Correlation analysis makes it possible to for the current period of sea level fall (2006...2023).
determine whether there is a relationship between
In turn, the intra-annual variation of sea
the characteristics under consideration, as well as to level showed that over the multi-year period, the
identify the degree of association between them:
maximum is observed in May-June (39 % and
31 %, respectively) and the minimum in November∑(xi − x̅)(yi − y̅)
(1)
rxy =
December (25 % and 19 %, respectively) (Fig. 2).
√(∑(xi − x̅)2 )(∑(yi − y̅)2 )
8
Hydrometeorology and ecology №4 2024
-25,5
historical maximum -26.03 m (1929)
sea level, m BS
-26
-26,5
-27
-27,5
-28
-28,5
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
-29
historical minimum -28.86 m (1977)
Fig. 1. Graph of changes in mean sea level at Peshnoy Station for 1929 to 2023
The location of the Peshnoy Station near river, which is noted by its influence on sea
the mouth of the Zhaiyk river (Ural) results in level, temperature regime and salinity values
the fact that the hydrological characteristics (Yeltay, Galayeva, 2020; Ivkina et al., 2020).
of the sea in this area are affected by the
-27,40
sea level, m BS
-27,45
-27,50
-27,55
-27,60
-27,65
-27,70
-27,75
-27,80
-27,85
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Fig. 2. Intra-annual variation of mean sea level at Peshnoy Station for the period 1929...2023
The correlation between the average daily
values of the considered characteristics for AprilJune separately for each year showed that the
closeness of the relationship between the data on
average for the period 2006...2023 amounted to
0,54, in some years it ranged from 0,03 (2014) to
0,96 (2023). Looking at the correlation coefficients
for individual months, they ranged from -0,11 to
0,92 in April, -0,55 to 0,79 in May, and 0,17 to
0,92 in June.
The conducted correlation analysis of
average daily data for 2006...2023 showed that
sea level variability near Peshnoy Station is not in
direct dependence on the level of the Zhaiyk river
(Ural) near Atyrau city.
In this regard, for further assessment of
the impact of river runoff on the sea, the data
of multiyear (2006...2023) average daily values
of the characteristics under consideration were
applied. Analysis of long-term average water
levels on the river and in the sea showed that
the levels have a fairly high level of correlation,
r=0,93. Regression analysis showed that the
coefficient of determination is equal to 0,87
or 87 %, indicating that the data of water level
in the river by 87 % explain the relationship
between them and sea level data (Figure 3).
9
Yeltay et al. Impact of the Zhaiyk river...
Scientific article
Caspian Sea - Peshnoy Station
70
y = 0,2503x - 44,738
R² = 0,87
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
200
250
300
350
400
450
Zhaiyk river - Atyrau city
Fig. 3. Graph of relationship between the water level of the Zhaiyk river - Atyrau city and the Caspian Sea near
Peshnoy Station
500
80
450
60
400
40
350
20
300
0
250
-20
200
-40
150
-60
100
-80
50
-100
0
-120
Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city
2021_river
2023_sea
2020_sea
Date
2023_river
2020_river
2022_sea
sea level, cm
changes near Peshnoy Station. This highlights
the significant impact of river runoff on water
exchange and sea level changes in the northeastern Caspian Sea. It is essential to consider this
when assessing the water balance and forecasting
hydrological processes in the region.
1,04
4,04
7,04
10,04
13,04
16,04
19,04
22,04
25,04
28,04
1,05
4,05
7,05
10,05
13,05
16,05
19,05
22,05
25,05
28,05
31,05
3,06
6,06
9,06
12,06
15,06
18,06
21,06
24,06
27,06
30,06
water level, cm
Figure 4 shows a graph of the course of
multiyear average values of water levels and
for individual years, which shows that the daily
course of levels is generally similar. Thus, increase
of the level on the Zhaiyk river near Atyrau city
during flood period directly reflected on sea level
2022_river
Caspian Sea - Peshnoy Station
2021_sea
Fig. 4. Graph of level progress on the Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city and Caspian Sea - Peshnoy Station
In the current year, between 11 April
and 10 May, a gradual increase in sea level was
observed in the Peshnoy Station data, reaching
a maximum of 125 cm (from -28,72 m (BS) to
-27,47 m (BS)). From 11 May to 27 June, there was
no further increase in sea level, with the level in
the Peshnoy area averaging around -27,29 m (BS)
(or 71 cm). However, despite the observed sea
10
Hydrometeorology and ecology №4 2024
level rise in Peshnoy by 1.25 m, no significant for April-May 2024 (Figure 5) show the spread
sea level change was noted at other sea stations of river water on the northeastern part of the
along the Kazakhstan coastline during this period. Caspian Sea (Copernicus browser, 2024).
Sentinel-2 L2A satellite space images
April 7, 2024
April 29, 2024
May 9, 2024
May 22, 2024
Fig. 5. Space images of the Caspian Sea water areas in April-May 2024
(Copernicus browser, 2024)
In April-May of the current year, the analysis, the data of the Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city
relationship between the water level on the river on 97 % explain the relationship between them
and Peshnoy Station have a very high correlation and sea level data (Figure 6).
coefficient (r=0,99), according to regression
700
100
50
Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city
300
200
100
100 y = 0,4816x - 204,74
R² = 0,9786
50
-50
0
-50
-100
-150
150
250
350
450
550
650
31,05
28,05
25,05
22,05
19,05
16,05
13,05
10,05
Date
7,05
4,05
1,05
28,04
25,04
22,04
19,04
16,04
13,04
10,04
7,04
Caspian Sea - Peshnoy Station
4,04
0
0
150
400
sea level, cm
500
1,04
water level, cm
600
-100
-150
Fig. 6. Graph of level progress on the Zhaiyk river – Atyrau city and Caspian Sea - Peshnoy Station
for April-May 2024
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Scientific article
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, it should be noted that sea
level changes in the Caspian Sea are the result of a
complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic
factors. Observations carried out during the
2024 flood period showed that the increase in
water level in the Zhaiyk river caused a localized
increase in sea level in the vicinity of the Peshnoy
Station settlement.
Analyses of the relationship between
water level data in the Zhaiyk river and sea level at
Peshnoy Station settlement revealed a significant
straight-line relationship with a high correlation
coefficient based on multi-year averages (r=0,93).
However, despite the detected correlation, the
results of the regression analysis do not allow
reliable forecasting of future sea level changes.
This is due to the fact that in the area under
consideration the sea level is subject to shortterm and periodic fluctuations caused by wind and
other local factors.
In the current year, the change of water
level on the Zhaiyk River in the first decade of
April by 131 cm and its further increase during the
flood period resulted in sea level rise in the area of
Peshnoy station by 125 cm (from 11 April to 10
May). It is also worth noting that rainfall during
this period was 0,4 mm in April and 27,7 mm in
May.
Sea level rise during the flood period may
exacerbate the impact of surge events, which may
lead to increased wave heights and other negative
impacts on coastal areas. Thus, for a more
accurate risk assessment and the development of
effective measures to protect coastal zones, it is
necessary to conduct continuous monitoring and
comprehensive analysis of sea level in the area
where the Zhaiyk river flows into the Caspian Sea,
taking into account both natural fluctuations and
the impact of anthropogenic factors.
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ЖАЙЫҚ ӨЗЕНІНІҢ КАСПИЙ ТЕҢІЗІ ДЕҢГЕЙІНЕ ӘСЕРІ
А.Г. Елтай PhD, Г.М. Шишкина , Н.Н. Жагпарова , Л.Б. Базарбай*
«Қазгидромет» РМК, Астана, Казахстан
E-mail: [email protected]
Каспий теңізі деңгейінің ұзақ мерзімді, маусымдық және қысқа мерзімді өзгерістерге ұшырауы, әсіресе антропогендік және климаттық факторларға байланысты болады.
2006...2023 жылдарға арналған сипаттамаларға сәйкес Жайық өзені – Атырау қаласы
мен Каспий теңізі – Пешной станциясы су деңгейі деректерінің корреляциялық және регрессиялық талдауы көпжылдық орташа тәуліктік мәндер арасында айтарлықтай жоғары
сызықтық байланысты (r=0,93, R2=0,87) көрсетті. Су тасқыны кезеңінде Жайық өзені –
Атырау қаласы суының көтерілуі биылғы жылы Пешной теңіздік станциясындағы теңіз
деңгейінің көтерілуінен айқын көрініс тапты. Осылайша, 2024 жылдың сәуір-мамыр айларына арналған Sentinel-2 L2A спутнигінің ғарыштық суреттері өзен суының Каспий
теңізіне құйылуын тіркеді. Қарастырылып отырған сипаттамалар арасындағы байланысты бағалау Жайық өзені ағынының теңізге әсерін анықтауда жоғары корреляцияның
негізгі фактор болып табылмайтынын көрсетті. Каспий теңізінің солтүстік-шығыс бөлігі
үшін теңіз деңгейінің өзгеруіне басқа факторлардың әсерін (дауыл желдері, толқындық
құбылыстар және т.б.) ерекше ескеру қажет.
Түйін сөздер: деңгей, корреляция, регрессия, өзгерістер, солтүстік-шығыс бөлігі.
ВЛИЯНИЕ РЕКИ ЖАЙЫК НА УРОВЕНЬ КАСПИЙСКОГО МОРЯ
А.Г. Елтай PhD, Г.М. Шишкина, Н.Н. Жагпарова, Л.Б. Базарбай*
РГП «Казгидромет», Астана, Казахстан
E-mail: [email protected]
Каспийское море подвержено многлетним, сезонным и коротко- периодичным изменениям уровня, в особенности из за влияния антропогенных и климатических факторов.
Проведенный кореляционный и регрессионный анализ данных уровня воды реки Жайык
– г. Атырау и Каспийское море – станция Пешной показал достаточно высокую прямолинеймую связь (r=0,93, R2=0,87) между многолетними средними суточными значениями характеристик за 2006...2023 гг. Повышение на реке Жайык – г. Атырау в период
половолья непосредственно отражается на повышений уровня моря у морской станции
Пешной, что отчетливо было видно в текущем году. Так космические снимки спутника Sentinel-2 L2A за апрель-май 2024 года зафиксировали поступление речной воды в
Каспийское море. Проведенная оценка связи между рассматриваемыми характеристиками показала, что высокие корреляционные связи не являются основным фактором определения влияния стока реки Жайык на море, для северо-восточной его части в особенности должны рассматриваться другие факторы изменения уровня (штормовые ветра,
приливные явления и другие).
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Yeltay et al. Impact of the Zhaiyk river...
Ключевые слова: уровень, корреляция, регрессия, изменения, северо-восточная часть.
Information about authors/ Авторлар туралы мәліметтер/ Сведения об авторах:
Yeltay A.– PhD, Head of the Caspian Sea hydrometeorological research department of the Scientific-research center,
RSE “Kazhydromet”, Astana, Kazakhstan, Mangilik el 11/1, [email protected]
Bazarbay L.– Master of Natural Sciences, Leading Researcher of the Caspian Sea hydrometeorological research department
of the Scientific-research center, RSE “Kazhydromet”, Astana, Kazakhstan, Mangilik el 11/1, [email protected]
Zhagparova N.– Master of Natural Sciences, Leading Engineer of the Caspian Sea hydrometeorological research
department of the Scientific-research center, RSE “Kazhydromet”, Astana, Kazakhstan, Mangilik el 11/1,
Shishkina G. - Leading Researcher of the Caspian Sea hydrometeorological research department of the Scientific-research
center, RSE “Kazhydromet”, Astana, Kazakhstan, Mangilik el 11/1, [email protected]
Елтай Айзат Галикызы – PhD, Ғылыми-зерттеу орталығы Каспий теңізін гидрометеорологиялық зерттеулер
басқармасының бастығы, «Казгидромет» РМК, Астана, Қазақстан, Мәңгілік ел 11/1, [email protected]
Базарбай Лаура Бекзаткызы – Жаратылыстану ғылымдарының магистрі, Ғылыми-зерттеу орталығы Каспий
теңізін гидрометеорологиялық зерттеулер басқармасының жетекші ғылыми қызметкері, «Казгидромет» РМК,
Астана, Қазақстан, Мәңгілік ел 11/1, [email protected]
Жағпарова Нұрғаным Нұрғисақызы – Жаратылыстану ғылымдарының магистрі, Ғылыми-зерттеу орталығы Каспий теңізін гидрометеорологиялық зерттеулер басқармасының жетекші инженері, «Казгидромет» РМК, Астана,
Қазақстан, Мәңгілік ел 11/1, [email protected]
Шишкина Галина Михайловна – Ғылыми-зерттеу орталығы Каспий теңізін гидрометеорологиялық зерттеулер басқармасының жетекші ғылыми қызметкері, «Казгидромет» РМК, Астана, Қазақстан, Мәңгілік ел 11/1,
Елтай Айзат Галикызы – PhD, начальник управления гидрометеорологических исследований Каспийского моря
Научно-исследовательского центра, РГП «Казгидромет», Астана, Казахстан, Мангилик ел 11/1, [email protected]
Базарбай Лаура Бекзаткызы – Магистр естественных наук, Ведущий научный сотрудник управления гидрометеорологических исследований Каспийского моря Научно-исследовательского центра, РГП «Казгидромет», Астана,
Казахстан, Мангилик ел 11/1, [email protected]
Жағпарова Нұрғаным Нұрғисақызы – Магистр естественных наук, Ведущий инженер управления гидрометеорологических исследований Каспийского моря Научно-исследовательского центра, РГП «Казгидромет», Астана,
Казахстан, Мангилик ел 11/1, [email protected]
Шишкина Галина Михайловна – Ведущий научный сотрудник управления гидрометеорологических исследований Каспийского моря Научно-исследовательского центра, РГП «Казгидромет», Астана, Казахстан, Мангилик ел
11/1, [email protected]
Authors’ contribution/ Авторлардың қосқан үлесі/ Вклад авторов:
Елтай А. Г. – разработка концепции, проведение статистического анализа, разработка методологии, ресурсы
Базарбай Л. Б. – проведение статистического анализа, подготовка текста, визуализация
Жағпарова Н. Н. – подготовка текста, визуализация
Шишкина Г. М. – подготовка текста, визуализация, проведение статистического анализа
Елтай А. Г. – тұжырымдаманы әзірлеу, әдіснаманы әзірлеу, статистикалық талдау, ресурстар
Базарбай Л. Б. – статистикалық талдау, мәтінді дайындау, көрнекілік
Жағпарова Н. Н. – мәтінді дайындау, көрнекілік
Шишкина Г. М.– статистикалық талдау, мәтінді дайындау, көрнекілік
Yeltay A.– conceptualization, resources, development of methodology, statistical analysis
Bazarbay L.– statistical analysis, text preparation, visualization
Zhagparova N.– text preparation, visualization
Shishkina G. – statistical analysis, text preparation, visualization
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