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Украшський державний лкотехшчний унiверситет
фактично е повноцiнною частиною мiсцевоï влади i адмiнiстрацiï - з вЫма випливаючи - ми наслiдками. У той же час, лiсiвники е професюналами у сферi проблем лiсу, що робить ïx не лише експертами в люовому господар-CTBi, але також iстотно рiзнить ïx вщ тих же службовцiв, вiдповiдальниx за надання населенню комунальних послуг.
Мюцева влада
Населения/елек торат (штереси, голоси)
Мiськi служби пов'язанi i3 зеленим господарством
Рис. 2. Модель структури штереЫв стосовно MicbKux лшв
Для мюьких територш характерний високий piBeHb конфлiктностi стосовно використання природшх територiй. Схематичний огляд конфлж™ на прикладi мiст Свропи дозволяе видiлити такi 1х типи: (1) конфлжти мiж люо-вим господарством та шшими землевласниками; (2) конфлжти мiж видами користуваннями лiсом; (3) конфлжт у межах певного користування люом; (4) конфлiкт з принципами планування i управлiння, методами створення лiсiв; (5) конфлiкти внутршньо! адмшютративно! оргашзаци та форм власностi.
У цшому ж забезпечення суспiльного консенсусу i3 залученням усiх зацiкавлених сторш шляхом балансування ix iнтересiв з метою сталого використання мюьких лiсовиx екосистем та пiдтримання 1х життездатностi е основною цшлю лiсовоi полiтики стосовно урбанiзованиx територш.
Лггература
1. Krott, M, Nillson, K. Urban Forestry Multiple - Use of Town Forests in International Comparison: Gottingen, August 1998.
€жи Боричка, Мар 'я Стопа-Боричка - Варшавський уншкрситет ЗМ1НИ КЛ1МАТУ ВАРШАВИ У 18-21 СТОЛ1ТТЯХ
У попередшх публiкацiяx (Kaczorowska, 1962; Boryczka, 1998; Boryczka, Stopa-Boryczka et al., 1992, 1999; Michalska, 1998; Zmudzka, 1998), тдготовлених кафедрою кшматологп Уиiверситету м. Варшави, представлеиi загальш особливостi перюдич-иостi клiмату Варшави порiвняно з iишими мiстами Свропи.
Jerzy Boryczka, Maria Stopa-Boryczka - Department of Climatology University of Warsaw Changes of the climate of Warsaw in 18th-21st centuries
The general features of periodicity of climate in Warsaw as seen against other cities of Europe were presented in the earlier publications having been prepared at the Department of Climatology of the University of Warsaw (Kaczorowska, 1962; Boryczka, 1998; Boryczka, Stopa-Boryczka et al., 1992, 1999; Michalska, 1998; Zmudzka, 1998).
246
Проблеми урбоекологп та ф^омелюраци
The studies to date of the long-term measurement series suggest that in Warsaw, similarly as in other towns of Poland (Cracow, 1826-1980, Wroclaw, 1851-1980), and in Europe (England, 1659-1773; Prague, 1771-1980; Geneva, 1826-1990; Zurich, 1864-1980; Potsdam, 1893-1992) several cycles of air temperature, featuring significant amplitudes, appear. These are the cycles of roughly 35, 7-8, 10-13, 73-113 years, and the planetary cycle of 178.9 years.
Their presence in almost all of the chronological series (of the monthly and seasonal values) witnesses to the fact that this periodicity is the property of the temperature field in Europe and in Poland.
The spectra and the cycles of air temperature in Warsaw, of the NAO indicator, and of solar activity were determined with the J. Boryczka method of the "regression sinusoids":
y = f (t) = a0 + ¿sin (2nt/0 + c),
where 0 is the period, b is the amplitude, c is the phase delay, and t is time. In this method the period 0 of the sinusoid was being changed with the step of 0.1 of a year. The series of the rest variance values, s , corresponding to the assumed periods 0, form the spectrum of the variable y. The obtained periods 0 correspond to
the local minima of the rest variance s (the local maximums of the correlation co-
2 2 1/2 2
efficient, R = (1-s
/s ) , where
s is the variance of the variable y). These latter periods are the periods in statistical sense, f (t+0) = f (ti)+si, where s, is the random rest. The method of "regression sinusoids" leads to the mean cycles present in the measurement series - the mean values of the parameters of the cycles, i.e. 0, b, c.
The cyclical nature of the monthly, seasonal, half-year and annual precipitation sums in the years 1813-1980 was presented in the 7th volume of the Atlas... (Boryczka, Stopa-Boryczka, Kicinska, Zmudzka, 1992). The periods of the cycles of monthly precipitation sums in Warsaw are contained in the following intervals: 3-6, 9-13, 15-23, 30-44, 51-67, 74-100, and 113-129 years. The periodicity of the seasonal precipitation sums in other localities of Poland (Koszalin, Bydgoszcz, Poznan, Wroclaw, Cracow) in the years 1861-1990 was studied by A. Michalska in her Ph.D. dissertation entitled "Long-term variations of precipitation in Poland" (in Polish). Earlier, the variability of precipitation in Poland was studied by Z. Kaczo-rowska (1962), who applied harmonic analysis.
A novelty is constituted by the demonstrated synchronicity of the eight-year cycle of air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation indicator (NAO), and of the astronomical variables: solar activity and the parameters of the solar system (acceleration of the Sun). The winters in Warsaw in the years 1825-2000 depended mainly upon the NAO indicator.
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
0 2.9 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.4
AT 2.2 1.3 1.9 1.1 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 2.5 3.4
R 0.22 0.13 0.32 0.36 0.05 0.35 0.45 0.46 0.36 0.26 0.48 0.51
Further, the cycles and the trends in air temperature in Warsaw in the 30-year period of 1966-1995 were compared with the two-century (1779-1998) cycles and the
2. ypSoeKo^oria
247
yKpaÏHCbKHH icp^aBMMM ^ÍCOTCXHÍHHHH yHÏBepcHTeT
trend. The purpose was to determine the dispersion of the cycles of air temperature and the upward trend during the three last decades of the global climate warming.
Thus, for instance, in December, in the 4.4-year cycle air temperature fluctuates by 3.4°C, while the correlation coefficient amounts to 0.51.
The biggest amplitudes in the three-to-four year cycles are displayed by the extreme values of air temperature, mainly by the absolute minima. The range of fluctuations of TMIN in the 3.1-year cycle is as big as 7.6°C.
Synchronicity of the cycles of air temperature, precipitation,
atmospheric circulation and solar activity in Poland
The scientific dispute as to whether the climatic rhythms are real, has been lasting already almost 100 years, since the appearance of the publication by E. Brückner (1890) on the 35-year climatic rhythm. E. Brückner demonstrated that there exists one rhythm, whose length has Gaussian distribution with the mean of 35 years. It turned out later on that the spectra determined with statistical methods contain more of climatic rhythms.
In the studies of the contemporary climate changes an essential problem is constituted by the uncovering of the true, natural climatic, astronomical and geological periods. The analogous periodicity of the "effects" and the supposed "causes" makes it possible to identify the natural factors bringing about - under the presence of the random component (atmospheric circulation) - the primary coolings and warmings of the climate of the Earth.
The close to four year periodicity of the air temperature,
precipitation and atmospheric circulation
The time series of air temperature in Europe are characterised by the close to four year periodicity, with the range of fluctuations AT=2b as shown in the table below:
Locality Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT
Warsaw 3.5 1.18 4.0 0.75 3.9 0.78 4.7 0.66 4.7 0.51
Prague 3.5 1.21 4.4 0.55 3.9 0.61 4.7 0.66 4.7 0.41
Geneva 3.8 0.65 3.9 0.48 3.9 0.53 3.7 0.47 3.9 0.29
England 3.8 0.48 3.7 0.29 3.1 0.36 4.3 0.29 5.2 0.21
An analogous 3.0-4.8-year periodicity appears in the seasonal and annual atmospheric precipitation series:
Locality Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 AP 0 AP 0 AP 0 AP 0 AP
Warsaw 4.8 21.0 3.6 25.0 3.4 40.0 2.6 21.8 3.6 68.6
Cracow 4.0 16.4 3.5 35.0 2.9 54.8 3.4 36.4 3.4 61.2
Wroclaw 3.5 15.8 3.0 24.0 3.2 38.0 3.7 27.4 3.3 65.6
The range of changes with respect to the seasonal sums in, for instance, Warsaw, is in winter equal P=98 mm, AP/P=21.4 %, and in summer, P=216 mm, AP/P=11.6 %.
The same periodicity is displayed by the atmospheric circulation: macrotype E, meridional (according to the classification of Wangenheim-Girs, 17761891) and cyclonal (according to Osuchowska-Klein, 1901-1975). The periods (0) and the correlation coefficients (R) are as below:
Circulation Winter Spring Summer Autumn
0 R 0 R 0 R 0 R
Macro-type E 3.0 0.18 3.0 0.25 4.4 0.21 2.9 0.22
Meridional 3.0 0.28 3.3 0.32 4.3 0.29 2.8 0.32
Cyclonal 4.2 0.29 3.5 0.30 2.8 0.33 3.4 0.30
A similar periodicity of 3.1 and 5.5 years, with the amplitudes of, respectively, Ah = 2.2 and 2.9 cm, appears in the time series of the mean level of the Baltic Sea, and the 3.1-year cycle of the annual maximum levels has the biggest amplitude of Ahmax=12.6 cm (Kozuchowski, Boryczka, 1997).
The 3.4 to 5 year periodicity characterises also the discharges of the Gota-Alv river (1807-1779), the discharges of Vistula river (Jokiel, Kozuchowski, 1989; Gutry-Korycka, Boryczka, 1989), and the ice cover on the Baltic Sea (Kozuchowski, 1994). There exists also the 3-year cycle of the volcanic eruptions (DVI).
It should be noted that the cause of these close to 4 year long periods is most probably associated with the strongest four year period (R=0.37) of the planetary tidal forces on the Earth in the years 1700-2000, which sum up together with the much stronger tidal forces coming from the Moon and the Sun. The absence of this cycle in the spectrum of solar activity indicates that this one is the cycle of atmospheric tides.
The close-to-eight-years periodicity of air temperature, atmospheric
circulation and solar activity
Both in Europe and in Poland the close-to-eight-year long cycles of air temperature dominate, featuring large amplitudes AT:
Locality Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT
Warsaw 8.3 1.52 7.8 0.81 7.1 0.57 6.5 0.62 7.7 0.59
Prague 7.7 1.23 6.9 0.71 8.4 0.45 7.5 0.43 7.8 0.48
Geneva 8.5 0.68 7.8 0.53 7.8 0.41 6.8 0.47 7.4 0.40
England 7.7 0.49 6.9 0.31 8.3 0.29 7.3 0.36 7.4 0.26
Atmospheric circulation is characterised by a similar periodicity (see Table 5). The range of fluctuations of air temperature in, for instance, Warsaw in winter, in the 8.3-year cycle, amounts to A7=1.5oC, and of the annual mean (with the period of 7.7 years) - 0.6oC:
Circulation Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 R 0 R 0 R 0 R 0 R
Macro-type E 7.4 0.26 7.7 0.22 7.0 0.17 7.7 0.31 8.0 0.20
Macro-type W 7.6 0.20 9.0 0.27 6.3 0.28 7.6 0.32 9.4 0.26
Meridional C 5.6 0.32 8.9 0.30 6.9 0.21 6.5 0.25 7.8 0.26
Cyclonal 7.4 0.41 5.4 0.31 7.9 0.28 6.9 0.18 8.5 0.24
Zonal 7.8 0.28 8.3 0.29 8.9 0.16 7.7 0.21 8.9 0.19
The 7.7 to 8.3 years long cycles of air temperature in Europe (in winter) are mainly shaped by the similar 7.4-year periodicity of the cyclonal circulation types (R=0.41) and the 7.8-year meridional circulation (^=0.32).
The 7.7 years long periodicity of air temperature was also observed in the Alps (Lorenc, 1994), and earlier yet in several dozens of the European time series
yKpaiHCbKHÖ .icp^aBUMÜ .icoTexm^HMÖ ymBepcuTeT
(Malcher, Schonwiese, 1987). The 7.8-year cycle appears, as well, in the time series, extending since 1720, of the ice cover on the Baltic Sea (Kozuchowski, 1994).
In the time series of the Wolf numbers from the time intervals of 17481993 and 1700-1993 the periods of 8.1 and 8.5 years appear, having the amplitudes of, respectively, AW=2b=21.2 and 23.5. The indicator of the volcanic dust content in the atmosphere (DVI) has the period of 7.9 years.
The very same period was identified in the variability of the parameters of the solar system in the years 1700-2000, i.e. of the acceleration of the Sun (7.8 years) and of the planetary tidal forces on the Sun.
An essential influence might be exerted on the atmospheric circulation by the 8.84 years long period of revolution around the Moon's orbit of the line of perigee - apogee. The horizontal component of the resultant of the tidal forces originating from the Moon and the Sun is significant and it most probably brings about the close-to-eight-year periodicity of the atmospheric circulation.
The approximately 8 years long period of air temperature (atmospheric circulation) dominates in view of the fact that the effects from the planetary tidal forces on the Sun (by the intermediary of variability in solar activity - the solar constant) sum up with the much bigger tidal forces from the Moon and the Sun.
The tides of the Earth's atmosphere have been poorly cognised until now because of the complexity of the Moon's movement (its variable orbit). The vertical component of tidal forces from the Moon and the Sun is small in comparison with the Earth's acceleration and brings about limited changes in the thickness of the Earth's atmosphere (stretching out). On the other hand, the horizontal component, acting over a longer time period, plays supposedly an important role in the circulation of oceanic waters (ocean currents, including El Niño) and the movement of the high and low atmospheric pressure areas (Boryczka, 1998).
The close-to-eleven-year cycle of air temperature, precipitation and
solar activity
The cycle of air temperature of roughly 11 years, being associated with the 11-year cycle of the sunspots, has been known for a long time. The table below shows the 10 to 15 years long periods of air temperature (T, Tmax, Tmin), along with their amplitudes (in oC) in selected localities, for particular seasons of the year and the entire year:
Locality Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT 0 AT
Warsaw 10.2 0.7 11.2 0.7 10.4 0.2 10.6 0.4 10.5 0.2
11.9 0.5 12.1 0.4 11.3 0.3 11.4 0.2 11.1 0.3
12.9 1.0 12.9 0.8 13.3 0.3 11.8 0.2 12.9 0.4
Prague 10.1 1.0 11.2 0.6 9.7 0.4 10.4 0.5 10.3 0.4
11.8 0.5 12.1 0.3 11.7 0.2 11.1 0.2 11.4 0.2
12.9 0.8 13.0 0.6 12.8 0.4 11.9 0.2 12.9 0.4
Geneva 11.1 0.4 10.3 0.8 10.6 0.4 10.4 0.4 10.3 0.3
11.7 0.6 11.2 0.4 11.3 0.4 11.2 0.1 11.1 0.2
12.4 0.7 12.0 0.2 12.0 0.2 12.5 0.1 11.9 0.2
England 11.1 0.4 10.5 0.3 10.0 0.3 10.3 0.4 10.1 0.1
11.2 0.5 11.1 0.2 11.1 0.2 11.2 0.2 11.1 0.2
12.4 0.7 11.6 0.2 12.8 0.4 12.6 0.3 12.5 0.2
The range of fluctuations of air temperature in this approximately 11 years long cycle is usually more than two times bigger in winter (o.4-1.0oC) than in summer (0.1-0.4oC).
It also turned out that the close-to-eleven-year periodicity of seasonal precipitation sums in Poland is significant, as well, namely:
Locality Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Warsaw 10.1 25.9 12.0 23.7 11.2 13.8 10.2 10.6 11.3 9.5
Cracow 9.8 12.3 10.2 18.7 10.3 12.9 10.9 17.1 9.8 5.4
Wroclaw 9.9 17.4 10.2 27.4 9.7 16.7 9.9 13.2 9.8 13.9
The range of variability of the seasonal precipitation sums in the cycles of 9.8 to 12.0 years with respect to the mean values from the years 1861-1990 (P ) is bigger in winter, exceeding the quarter of the sum P. The relative amplitudes, (Pmax - Pmin)' P are usually bigger in winter than in summer, and in case of annual precipitation sums are contained in the interval 5.4-13.9 %.
The cause for the close-to-eleven-year periods of air temperature and precipitation lies beyond any doubt in the 11-year cycle of solar activity (and solar constant):
Wolf numbers Solar constant
0 AW 0 As/s, in %
10.0 48.3 10.1 0.35
10.5 44.7 10.5 0.51
11.0 60.1 11.1 0.94
12.0 32.2 11.9 0.29
The equation of the 11-year cycle (average for the years 1700-1993) of the
2 5
solar constant, featuring the minimum of the rest variance, s =7. 110-5, and the correlation coefficient R=0.609, is as follows:
5 = 1.9435 + 0.009163sin (2nt/11.1 - 1.9549)
The scope of changes of the solar constant in the 11-year cycle amounts to
-2
almost 1 % of the average value of 1.94 cal-cm" in the years 1700-1993. In the individual 11-year cycles of the sunspots the solar constant changes by at most 2.5 % (Kondratev, Nikolskii, 1970).
The nine to fourteen year periodicity of the solar activity is most probably associated with the period of 11.86 years of the revolution of the biggest planet (Jupiter) around the Sun. This period dominates in the time series of the resultant of the gravitational pull of the planets on the Sun (11.8 years, R=0.40), the total momentum of the planets (11.9 years, R=0.75), and the mass dispersion of the planets in the solar system (11.9 years, R=0.58).
It should also be emphasised that the close-to-eleven-year periodicity appears, as well, in the time series (1680-1980), related to the volcanic eruptions: of the dust content in the atmosphere indicator, logDVI, with 0=11.4 years and R=0.31, of the volcanic activity, logDVI/At, with 0=11.7 years and R=0.29, and of the time intervals between the consecutive explosive eruptions, At, with 0=12.1 and R=0.21.
The analogous periodicity of the geological, astronomical and climatologi-cal variables is an evidence for the gravitational conditioning of this periodicity.
yKpaÏHCbKHH icp^aBMMM ^ÍCOTCXHÍHHHH yHÏBepcHTeT
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) on the
climate of Warsaw
The dominating influence on the climate of central Europe - and of Poland - is exerted by two primary centres of the atmospheric pressure field: the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. These two pressure centres, associated with the difference of temperature between the waters of the North Atlantic and the continent, are negatively correlated with one another. When the pressure in the Azores High increases, then the pressure in the Icelandic Low decreases, and vice versa. This is the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO. In the situations of a high meridional pressure difference, that is - a significant gradient of pressure directed towards the North, the air from above the Atlantic moves along the parallels from the West to the East - over the territory of Poland. On the other hand, when there is a drop of pressure in the Azores High (and, simultaneously, an increase of pressure in the Icelandic Low), the horizontal pressure gradient may be oriented towards the East or towards the West. Then, the air moves along the meridians (meridional circulation) to the South or to the North. In such cases the air from the North or from the South flows over the territory of Poland. The direction and the velocity of the movement of the air results from the balancing of the following forces: the one of the pressure gradient, the Coriolis force, and the centrifugal force (as well as the force of friction against the bedding and the turbulent viscosity - in the direct vicinity of the Earth's surface). At the higher altitudes the direction of the gradient wind is deformed by the air temperature field - characterised by the horizontal gradient directed towards the North Pole - i.e. by the so-called thermal wind (which blows also from the West to the East).
The study referred to the NAO indicator as defined by P.D. Jones et al. (1997), that is - the standardised pressure difference at the sea level between Gibraltar and the South-West Iceland.
The following periods 0 are present in the spectrum of the NAO indicator determined for the years 1825-1997 (R denoting the correlation coefficient):
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
0 R 0 R 0 R 0 R
6.5 0.22 7.8 0.17 7.3 0.22 7.8 0.27
11.1 0.13 10.3 0.20 8.8 0.17 8.3 0.24
13.4 0.21 11.1 0.09 16.6 0.24 11.3 0.13
23.9 0.19 13.8 0.14 24.2 0.20 15.5 0.17
45.5 0.16 39.5 0.14 29.9 0.20 37.1 0.16
106.3 0.09 83.2 0.17 75.3 0.16 105.1 0.17
The spectrum of the NAO indicator in winter is dominated, similarly as the spectra of air temperature in Warsaw (1779-1990) and in Wroclaw (1851-1990), by the close to eight years long cycle. This is, at the same time, the cycle of solar activity (8.1 years) and of the solar acceleration (7.75 years). The maximums of these approximately eight-year cycles take place at about the same years.
The strength of the correlation between the winter air temperature in Warsaw (daily averages T, minima Tmin, maximums Tmax) and the NAO indicator, also in the recent years (1966-1995) is demonstrated by the comparison of their standar-
dised values - the "parallel" character of the respective curves (Fig. 1). The linear regression diagrams of the air temperature (T, Tmin, Tmax) and of the NAO indicator with respect to time t almost completely coincide.
The trends in the NAO indicator, defined through the linear regressions (NAO = A0 + At) are increasing in winter (A > 0) and decreasing in summer (A < 0). In other words, during winters the parallel transport of the air masses from above the Atlantic Ocean towards the East is on the increase. The progressing warming, especially in winter, is brought about by the intensification of the warming influence of the Atlantic Ocean. On the other hand, the slight increasing trend of air temperature during summer is caused by the disappearance of the cooling influence from the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of Poland.
Forecasts of climate change in Warsaw in the 21st century
The mechanisms responsible for the transfer of the changes in the solar system into the Earth-atmosphere system are not yet known (except for the solar constant). Despite this, the identified periodicity of the climatological variables, including the periods of about 100 and 200 years, may be used in the reconstruction of climate during the last centuries and in the forecasts for the 21st century. It is interesting to observe the diagrams of the temporal changes in solar activity (Wolf numbers), Fig. 2a, the North Atlantic Oscillation indicator, Fig. 2b, and the air temperature in Warsaw, Fig. 2c, in the years 1600-2100. These reconstructions and forecasts were obtained on the basis of interference of the identified cycles of the Wolf numbers, the NAO indicator, and air temperature:
y = ao + I/b/sin (2nt/0y + Cj),
where 0/, bj, Cj are the parameters of the statistically significant cycles (at the level of significance of 0.05).
It was assumed in the forecasts that the extremes of the cycles identified, featuring quite big (significant) amplitudes, will continue to repeat themselves as they had done in the 18th-20th centuries. The cycles were the deterministic components of the measurement series. One is justified in making such an assumption by the planetary cycle of 178.9 years. The values of the parameters of the solar system (the distance between the centre of mass of the solar system from the Sun, acceleration of the Sun, the resultant of the gravitational pull of the planets) are repeated with the delay of 178.9 years. The diagrams of changes of the Wolf numbers (and the solar constant) in the years 1700-1879 and then in 1880-2000, that is - delayed by 179 years, are almost congruent. The length of the time interval between the absolute maximums of the Wolf numbers (1778, 1957) is equal to 179 years. This periodicity is close to the precise mathematical one, f (t+178.9) = f (t). The temporal course of the Wolf numbers in the years 1700-2100 (with the primary maximums in the years 1778 and 1957) can be obtained by accounting for the mass moments of the four largest planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) - modulation of the mass moments of the closer planets by the farther ones. It can be supposed that solar activity (solar constant) is shaped by the gravitational fields of these planets. The cycle of about 180 years of length is present in the longest measurement series of air temperature and precipitation. The 180-year cycle is repeated many times
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over in the chronological series of palaeotemperature dating from more than ten thousand years ago.
The forecast of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winters of the 21st century was obtained on the basis of the identified periods from the years 18261997, namely the periods of 2.4, 5.0, 5.8, 7.8, 8.3, 15.5, 21.5, 37.1, 71.5 and 105.1 years. The superposition of these cycles indicates that we can expect during the winters of 2001-2100 the decrease of the NAO indicator, that is - the weakening of the warming influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of Europe (and Poland) in winter. The forecasts of the NAO indicator for the 21st century convince already of the approaching cooling of the climate of Europe.
An essential element in the results of these studies is constituted by the logical convergence of the downward tendencies forecasted for the 21st century, namely of the solar activity (solar constant), the NAO indicator, conditioning the mild or the frosty character of the winters in Poland, and the forecast of the very temperature (the cooling in the 21st century).
The frostiest winters, with the mean temperatures of -7oC, will take place in the middle of the current century, i.e. at around the year 2050. They will be somewhat milder than the winters of the beginning of the 19th century, in view of the increasing contribution of the man-made component. On the other hand, the cooler summers will occur earlier, during the first two decades of the 21st century.
The existence of the real (deterministic) periods in variability of air temperature, that is - the correctness of the statistical models - is demonstrated by the verifiability of the forecasts of changes in the climate of Poland during the 20th century. Thus, the forecasts of the tendencies in air temperature in Warsaw, elaborated for the years 1980-1996 on the basis of data from 1779-1979, presented in the publication on forecasts of changes in the climate of Warsaw (Boryczka, Stopa-Boryczka et al., 2000) were verified positively.
The minimum of temperature, forecasted for the year 1980, took in fact place in 1980. The average annual temperature for 1980, equal 6.6oC, according to the measurements from the weather station of Warsaw-Ok^cie, is the lowest value in the thirty-year period of 1966-1995. In 1991 the secondary forecasted minimum of temperature occurred, conform to the results of measurements from the years 1982-1992:
Year 1989 1990 1991 1992
oC 9.2 9.4 8.0 8.8
Likewise, the forecasts elaborated for the winters in Warsaw, according to the data from 1779-1990, and in Geneva, according to the data from 1768-1988 (Boryczka, 1993) proved to be true. Conform to this forecast, the year 1990 marked the end of a series of warmer winters in Warsaw. Winters in Warsaw are increasingly cold starting with the year 1991. The extrapolated values of the time trend in the years 1987-1996 correspond to the colder winters (at the weather station of Warsaw-Ok^cie):
Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
oC -4.2 0.6 2.4 2.1 -2.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.3 -1.3
HayK'OBiiii BicHHK, 2003, BHn. 13.5
The relatively good accordance of the forecasted air temperatures with the changed ones, outside of the approximation interval, constitutes the evidence that there exist the causal connections between the periods of the climatological and astronomical variables.
The methods of forecasting were tested, as well, on the example of a short, thirty-year long measurement series from Zamosc for the years 1951-1980 (Stopa-Boryczka, Boryczka, 1998). The extrapolation of the values of the time trend - the resultant of the cycles of 3.25, 7.75 and 12.6 years for the period 1981-1990 (i.e. outside of the interval of approximation of 1951-1980), brings the results close to the actual measurements of air temperature in the decade of 1981-1990. Attention should especially be paid to the synchronicity of the extremes of the smoothed temperature in Zamosc with the minima and maximums of solar activity in the 11-year cycle. The maximums of air temperature occur at the dates of maximums of the sunspots: 1957, 1968, 1979, and 1989.
The time series of air temperature in Europe during the recent centuries demonstrate that the current warming of climate may to a large extent result from the natural causes. The upward trend of air temperature, especially during winters, is simply the resultant of the superposition of natural cycles. Thus, for instance, the increasingly warm winters in Warsaw - by 1.03oC per 100 years in the period 1779-1990, are the effect of superposition of several cycles, whose periods are 3.5, 5.5, 8.3, 12.9, 18.0, 38.3, 66.7, 113.1 and 218.3 years. Their resultant, in the form of a linear regression, explains the increase of air temperature during winters by 0.93oC per 100 years. Thus, the man-made component of this variability would contribute only 0.1oC per 100 years. Analogously, the increasingly warm winters in Geneva by 0.05oC per 100 years, and in Prague by 0.25OC per 100 years, are the effect of superposition of the cyclical oscillations of air temperature.
References
1. Boryczka J., 1998, "Zmiany klimatu Ziemi" ("Changes in the climate of the Earth"; in Polish). Wyd. Akademickie "Dialog", Warszawa.
2. Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Kicinska B., Zmudzka E., 1992, "Zmiany wiekowe klimatu Polski" ("Secular changes of the climate in Poland"; in Polish), in: "Atlas wspolzaleznosci parametrow meteorologicznych i geograficznych w Polsce" ("Atlas of interdependencies of the meteorological and geographical parameters in Poland"; in Polish), part VII, Wyd. UW, Warszawa.
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Украшський державний лкотехшчний унiверситет
8. Jokiel P., Kozuchowski K., 1989, "Zmiany wybranych charakterystyk hydrologicznych Polski w biez^cym stuleciu" ("Changes in selected hydrological characteristics of Poland in the present century"; in Polish). "Dok. Geogr.", 6.
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УДК503:113 M.I. Сиротюк1, Л.Б. Быоус1, О.С. Сиротюк2 -
ЛНУ M. 1в. Франка; В.Л. Петрамвський3
ЗАБРУДНЕННЯ ПОВ1ТРЯНОГО БАСЕЙНУ М1СТА ЛЬВОВА ТА ЗАХОДИ ЩОДО ЙОГО ЗМЕНШЕННЯ
Проаналiзовано фактори забруднення пов^я в найнижчих шарах атмосфери. Найбшьшими забруднювачами пов^ря у Львовi е ТЕС (30%) i транспорт (50%). На даний процес впливають також ^c^^TOmi метеоролопчш умови, що негативно впливають на атмосферш потоки, мюький рельеф, а також структура планування. Представлеш шдекси забруднення повггря, i заходи щодо покращення екологiчного стану атмосфери.
M.I. Syrotyuk1, L.B. Bilous1, O.S. Syrotyuk2, V.L. Petranivskyi3 The air basin pollution of Lviv city and measures for its reduction
The factors of pollution in the lowest atmosphere layers have been analyzed. The most significant air pollutants in Lviv city are thermopower plants (30 %), motor transport (50 %), and some factors as unfavorable meteorological conditions, influencing the atmosphere scattering, the city relief, and the planning structure. The indices of the air pollution are presented, and conclusions on ecological air state improving have been made.
1 Кафедра рацюнального використання природних ресурав i охорони природи (Chair of rational use of natural resources and nature protection)
2 Кафедра економiчноi теорп (Chair of economy theory, Ivan Franko National University, Lviv)
3 Кафедра менеджменту i шдприемництва, Дрогобицький державний педагопчний ушверситет ím. 1.Я. Франка (Chair of management and enterprise, Ivan Franko Pedagogical State University, Drogobych)
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Проблеми урбоекологп та ф^омелюраци
