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intentions actual on diversification of the feedstock delivery routes and confirms advisability of the potential projects for gas pipeline building from the Caspian region.
"Rossia I novye gosudarstva Evrazii", M, 2010, NII, p. 93-100.
Nurbek Atakanov, cand. of sciences (economy) WATER AND ENERGETIC PROBLEMS IN CENTRAL ASIA
There are two states in Central Asia - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan being in the zone of water river flowing forming and transit where almost 85% of water resources of Central Asia are concentrated but the other states - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are located in the zone of river flowing dispersing and transit. This location causes many discussions concerning this flowing use in two aspects - as watering and hydropower resource. During the soviet time when there was a single energetic system of Central Asia this problem was centralized; during a vegetation period a priority was for water as a watering resource under conditions of risky agriculture to the detriment of generation of electricity with subsequent compensation of potential losses by the other types of energy sources (coal, gas and others). Uzbekistan and Tajikistan supplied hydrocarbon fuel (coal, gas, fuel oil and etc.) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan incurring losses because of routine outflow of water for irrigation during the vegetation period without the volume of water piling up for the winter regime of hydroelectric power plant operation.
Since the states of the region have become independent this problem solving is "a sticking point" in the relations between the neighbors. It's clear that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan demand from the neighbors adequate recouping their losses because of water outflow to irrigate - according to the volume and the price of alternative types of energy resources laying special stress on economic criteria of resource rating. To their mind the compensation must include losses according to water storage, water infrastructure keeping, flood prevention and also electricity received less. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan where there are mainly thermal power plants insist on water considering as a limited resource being very important for a life, development and environment appealing to the international law having a common recommended character and many contradictions. In winter these states suffer from their territory flood because of water outflow from reservoirs for electricity generation in order to remove critical loads on networks.
Time and market relationships in the countries of the region caused many intergovernmental agreements on one hand but on the other hand - admitted their discrepancy to time and conditions. So, the countries of the region didn't come to common consensus for the present continuing consulting and exchanging opinions on this urgent problem where the main point is price parity on energy resource exchange and some technological points. In future Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are going to develop a network of hydroelectric power plants on transboundary river arteries, large and small; being planned as early as during the soviet period and it worsens the situation. According to the different estimations a hydroelectric potential of Kyrgyzstan is fluctuating within the limits of 140-160 milliards kW/hour in a year and 500-550 milliards kW/hour of Tajikistan; it allows these states adhering to this line of their strategy without having enough hydrocarbon raw
materials. As a result the problem isn't solved cardinally; on the one hand agricultural commodity producers suffer but on the other hand, -power engineering specialists - one can observe it especially during water-short and dry years, for example, 2000-2008 years. But intergovernmental negotiations between the countries of Central Asia and Russia having become more active within the bounds of the regional associations give hopes to solve problems as soon as possible.
The Central-Asian states together with Russia within the bounds of EAEU agreed to solve water and energetic problems of the region in common where Russia is the investor, supplier of special production and importer of electricity. Taking into consideration Russia's role in these agreements the problem on investment activity synchronization was coordinated with. It concerns not only large-scale plans of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but also investments in thermal power plants and electric mains being constructed at the territory of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. VB, ABR, IBR, EBRR and also China being interested in electricity import for it's the northern-western territories and Iran finance these projects besides Russia. The Eurasian bank of development established in 2006 by Russia and Kazakhstan is also inclined to take part in the projects. According to some agreements within the bounds of the CIS countries electricity trade isn't imposed duty on. At present Kyrgyzstan exports electricity in Russia via Kazakhstan and in China. One plans to improve a system of energy exchange in the region and increase a volume and geography of electricity export for the account of Russia, China and the South Africa so electric main "the North-the South" is planned. A common energetic system in the region will allow solving the economic, social and even political problems and it can be a base for the peace and harmony in the region.
The important key factor is intergovernmental relations in Central Asia concerning water and energetic problems. The above-mentioned brief information concerning energetic resources of the region states shows that the confrontation between the countries located in the zone of water flow forming and the countries located in the zone of flow dispersing has a political character. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan having no alternative sources of energy resources will develop hydropower engineering in any case: whether small or transboundary rivers. Electricity will be necessary both for internal consumption and export.
Water must be the subject for the subsequent negotiations by virtue of that there are no other alternatives in the region. Kyrgyzstan has such problem with the countries being differed by energy and raw materials orientation of economics. It's difficult to predict a course of subsequent events in this situation against a background of the world hydrocarbon supply reducing. It allows considering the problems of intergovernmental relations in Central Asia as a key uncertainty and also the perspectives to renew uranium production in Kyrgyzstan.
"Gosudarstvennoe strategicheskoe upravlenie: Stsenarii dlya Rossii", M., 2009, p. 276-293.
Sulaimon Shokhzoda,
Political scientist
SECURITY MECHANISMS IN THE CENTRAL ASIA
By decline of bipolar world it became clear that it was a less expensive and more efficient affair to ensure security of the local space - of the regions. After 1991, the world with gradual acceleration was transforming into the ploy-centric system of relations with the
