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МИРОВАЯ, НАЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ И РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ
ЭКОНОМИКА WORLD, NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMY
Вестник Челябинского государственного университета. 2019. № 7 (429). Экономические науки. Вып. 65. С. 30—35.
УДК 338.1 ББК 65.9(2Рос)
10.24411/1994-2796-2019-10704
THE STABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF RUSSIA
IN MODERN CONDITIONS1
V. I. Barkhatov
Chelyabinsk State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia
In the paper under study, the author's vision is presented of some factors and the nature of modern Russian economy's stable development; some major contradictions defined; an interrelation of the stable development of global economy and national economy shown; a similarity of problems arising in them validated. A special attention is paid to factors influencing the stable development of Russian economy in a medium-term perspective, and a role of transnational corporations as subjects of stable development shown.
Keywords: stable development, Russian economy, development factors.
Modern world economy is in a state of high vulnerability and "fragility" (in the words of N. Taleb [17]). Capitalist principles of the organisation of economic life have failed to give a fitting reply to modern challenges, and primarily — an answer as to how to minimise negative consequences of economic crises. In conditions of a search for a new socio-economic paradigm of development, a concept of "stable development" is taking on particular significance. It combines two points of attraction, two desirable conditions of humanity, in its name: on the one hand — development, that is to say progression; on the other — stability, that is an ability to "absorb" external shocks.
The present paper expounds the author's view on the nature and factors of the stable development of national economy in the globalising world.
In scientific literature, no consensus exists yet regarding the interpretation of this concept. For the first time, the term "stable development" with respect to socio-economic phenomena and processes appeared in 1987. It was introduced by the International Commission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Commission) [6]. One should consider a process to be stable, under which a mode of using (consuming) resources can satisfy requirements of society in a given period and simultaneously future needs of future generations.
1 Перевод статьи В. И. Бархатова «Устойчивое развитие национальной экономики России в современных условиях» (Вестн. Челяб. гос. ун-та. 2014. № 9).
A fairly large number of authors deal with issues of stable development and a study of its various aspects. Many works are devoted to the theoretical conceptualisation of the phenomenon of stable development [3; 5; 10; 11; 18; 19; 21]. A topic of the stable development of a municipality is popular [1; 4; 8; 9]. A special attention is being given to solving environmental problems [15].
There is a number of critical works (for example [14]) in which stable development is considered as a form of world capital's controlling national economies and companies. International organisations and funds are constantly monitoring the state of things concerning stable development [6; 7; 20]. A number of works are devoted to Russian realities of stable development [13]. Some authors consider this problem at a level of individual economic entities [16]; at the same time, it is most commonly studied as "a superstructure" over the existing model of capitalist relations, beyond the tying-up of its causes with the very nature of capitalism as such.
Stable development is a contradictory unity. It represents the interdependence and interdetermination of need satisfaction and constraints, which depend on the development of a technological mode of production. This technological mode of production determines an amount and qualitative composition of resources available to society at every instant. The main strategic goal of stable development is nothing else than the satisfaction of human needs, owing to which the motivation of employees for productive work becomes possible, which factor will
result in an increase of the effectiveness of economic activity as a whole. Stable development must guarantee an equal satisfaction of the most important needs of all people, not only those of selected social groups.
An economic system can develop steadily and satisfy needs of people. The problem is that really functioning economies can be both of an open and a closed type. Likewise, there is a certain gradation within these types. To what extent is the statement about a possibility of the stable development of an economic system universal? To what extent is an economic system connected with its supersystems; and is a lack of stable development in a subsystem not a condition for the stable development of the system itself? Is it the question of boundaries of national economy or that of global economy on a global scale?
World economy has become an integrated economic system. National economy must become an organic part of world economy in order to fulfill the task of meeting the needs of population. The distribution of national and global resources is increasingly influenced by global centres of capital.
What is meant here is a global spread of the model of imperialism with its centre in the United States of America and "branches" in practically all corners of this planet. A continuous transfer of resources directed from "poor" to "rich" countries is being carried out. A metropolis arises, that accumulates resources, consumes them and provides a local stability of its system of management. At the other end, there appear peripheral economies in which, on the contrary, stability declines, primarily due to a lack of resources for supporting it (Fig. 1). It should be noted that risks move in a direction op-
posite to resources — from a metropolis to a periphery, which go "below" through a system of transmission mechanisms which will be discussed in what follows.
National economy also operates according to an analogous scheme, which repeats, on a smaller scale, the mechanism of the redistribution of resources in favour of "a metropolis" (a capital city) from "a periphery" (a province or regions) (Fig. 2).
In this regard, some semblance of the stability of the entire global system remains on a global scale: there are no kinds of global wars, mass poverty, epidemics, technogenic and natural disasters with consequences of which humanity would not be able to cope through joint efforts. An impression of the "correctness" of the existing world order is being created.
However, this impression is deceptive. On the contrary, there arises and grows a trend in the global hierarchy of states, under which stability is directly proportional to a degree of a superiority in administering resources. A stability of some entities is achieved through an instability of other ones.
One of the main mechanisms enabling to redistribute stability is a system of risks. Risks of a metropolis are externalised and transferred to a periphery. An example of this is the global financial crisis, when "a fall" of markets of capital in developed countries was "cushioned" at the expense of developing markets, including the Russian one. Similarly, risks of a reversal of trade are minimised by transferring production sites to developing countries, and environmental risks are reduced to a minimum by a geographical shift of hazardous industries away from a metropolis. However, processes taking place in this sphere are not so unambiguous. An increase of risks in
Fig. 1. The movement of resources and risks between a metropolis and a periphery within the frame- Fig■ 2 The movement of resources and risks
work of world economy within the framework of n^wnd economy
peripheral economies has a negative impact on those of a metropolis. A situation originates, when some resources become scarce in a metropolis itself.
And this is one of the reasons why a unipolar world that emerged after the collapse of the USSR could not become stable. Contradictions between a metropolis and a periphery have worsened, acquired new forms and still continue to define "the identity" of modern economy. An increase of the stability of global economy is possible today, no matter how paradoxically it may sound, only subject to a transition to a multipolar world. This will ensure a more uniform allocation of resources and partly remove contradictions between a centre and a periphery. A transition to a multipolar model may contribute to a dissolution of an objective reason for the division of countries into "a metropolis" and "a periphery". In this connection, an availability of a bigger number of poles positively affects the uniformity of the allocation of resources between countries. It is in these conditions that the realisation of all numerous advantages of the globalisation of world economy is possible, not the utilisation of its capabilities by "selected" countries.
Yet, it would be wrong to say about an absolute vi-ciousness of the existing practices aimed at ensuring global stability. Even today, national economies harmonise interaction within global economy to some extent, while integrating into international organisations and unions.
Transnational corporations (TCs) not only derive resources from their peripheral economies, but also may concentrate them on a specific territory. Such a territory gets a powerful boost to growth. A struggle for the environment, carried out in countries of a metropolis and in favour of these countries, may have a beneficial effect on the emergence of "green" technologies on a world-wide scale. Trade liberalisation, the reduction or elimination of customs duties and quantitative restrictions imposed on the entry of merchandise results in an easier access to imported goods that are in relatively short supply in a country of a periphery. At a level of phenomena, one may observe numerous examples of a positive impact of the development of metropolises on the growth (a quantitative growth is meant) of peripheral economies.
At the same time, if one looks at the situation as a whole, the current model of globalisation has a negative impact on the stability of both national economies and the entire global economic system. Most commonly, globalisation leads to an increase in social differentiation, to a division of society into the rich and the poor. A solution of this problem is impossible without the redistribution of resources in favour of the poor, none saving this will reduce the severity of a conflict of
interests and prevent a scenario of a turbulent, unpredictable development of events, up to military conflicts.
A number of factors can reduce an impact of globalisation on the formation of a stable system. In the short term, one of them is the growth of the competitiveness of national economy and its individual economic entities. And this is a multifactorial process. Major factors of the growth of competitiveness should be: a quality of labour force, the latter's compliance with tasks being solved in economy, an adequate price of labour force, permitting to compete with other national economies, a developed infrastructure that reduces transaction costs on a national scale, a set of social guarantees, corresponding to available resources. Also, a positive effect is associated with the growing diversification of the structure of industrial production, with the increasing of a degree of the protection of national economy from swings in demand. Thus, the inclusion of national economy in various international structures creates prerequisites for improving the competitiveness of national economy, thereby increasing its stability.
An impact of globalisation on the stability of Russian economy may be described through a set of factors. A level of the development of Russian economy should be mentioned first among them. It may be described using rates of Russian economy's growth, available resources and an inventory of "insider" TCs in Russian economy.
Growth rates of Russian economy in the post-crisis period keep as on the whole within a range of those values that characterise major groups of countries. The biggest growth is shown by traditionally developing countries headed by China, whereas the Eurozone cannot yet recover from the crisis (see Fig. 3). As can be seen from the graph, Russia for one retains a certain margin of stability, having the same rate of economic growth as a group of developed countries.
As for reserves of resources, according to various estimates, Russia can provide itself with discovered reserves alone of all main minerals for 35-45 years. At the same time, the main energy resources — natural gas and coal — will last for 80-100 years with the existing level of consumption. Russia is a world leader in fresh water reserves and forest resources. Labour force is also of quite a good "quality". Thus, one can say about a good resource base for ensuring the stable development of national economy.
Separately, it has to be said about TCs. Their existence testifies to an ability of national elites to unite capitals represented in the form of industrial capitals, banks, "social" and "political" capital with the aim of creating competitive entities in world economy. Transnational corporations accumulate resources and maximise pos-
Fig. 3. Rates of the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) relating to a group of countries as compared with Russia (sources: a Report of World Bank [7]; the website of Rosstat [Russian Federal State of Statistics Service] [12]
sibilities of their use. Let us consider the largest Russian corporations in terms of their competitiveness in global economy.
A table below presents Russian TCs ordered by their places in a rating with respect to a volume of foreign assets in 2012. It is obvious that expanding to foreign markets and gaining a firm footing on them are not a priority for Russian companies.
A volume of activities abroad rarely exceeds 10 % of all activities. Also, a direction of investment is
an interesting trend: metallurgical corporations acquire specialised plants which go bankrupt and which do not generate a profit after their purchase, while telecommunications corporations mainly develop markets of the former USSR and its other traditional partners, occupying a relatively free niche. It should be also noted that the above rating is adduced only for developing and transforming economies, whereas in the overall rating Russia's positions would start at the fifth dozen.
Ranking positions of Russian and transnational corporations with respect to the volume of foreign assets in the year 2012
Company Branch Ranking position as per volume of foreign assets Indices of activities abroad
Assets, mn USD Sales, mn USD Number of workers, thous. people
LukOil oil and gas 9 23 317 71 631 19 607
Evraz metallurgy 39 9356 8702 24 251
Severstal metallurgy 42 8701 7370 14 100
Vympelkom telecommunications 50 7123 2398 6699
Joint-Stock Financial Corporation "Sistema" telecommunications 53 6151 2 983 18 563
Mechel metallurgy 56 5768 4927 9149
RusAl metallurgy 70 4483 8696 8932
Norilsk Nikel metallurgy 71 4166 11 713 2307
Mobile TeleSystems telecommunications 83 3120 1906 6385
Pipe Metallurgical Company metallurgy 96 2383 2093 4855
A source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2012 [22].
The stability of Russian economy also depends on a number of specific factors that are strongly influenced by globalisation.
Firstly, what this means is a degree of openness of Russian economy. For open economies, one of determinants of national prices are world prices. Their influence may be both direct and indirect. Realising this, national producers experience a need to take this factor into account and orient themselves not only to improving a quality of products, but also to reducing costs in order to insure against a risk of a fall of world prices. As a result, new risks arise — technological, environmental, social — because benefits produced in a country do not appear to be of a high enough quality. As a result, the stability of national economy is falling.
Secondly, the geographical location of Russian economy may act as a factor of its stability. Remaining the largest country in the world, Russia does not yet sufficiently use its potential in the development of resources of the global ocean, in the transportation of goods from Asia to Europe and farther. It is this direction that seems to be promising for eliminating an image and signs of peripheral economy and for acquiring a status of an economic superpower.
Thirdly, the stability of Russian economy is influenced by such factors as a decrease in volumes of firms' demand for investments and households' demand for consumer goods. The crisis of 2008-2009 and the ongoing recession contributed to the fact that re-orientation to outer markets became a condition of survival for many industrial companies. This trend is typical not only of individual economic entities, but also of entire industries (specifically metallurgy). Industrial production is stabilising at the expense of penetration into or gaining a footing in outer markets, which exerts a significant influence on the increasing of the stability of the national economy of Russia. In modern conditions, when foreign policy and foreign economy risks increase, it is necessary to re-ori-
ent industrial production to a domestic market in order to smooth out negative tendencies of modern and future restrictions imposed on activities of Russian companies and entrepreneurs. At the same time, an emergence of new prospects should be noted as well, of cooperation with countries which had previously not been significant trade-and-economic partners for many companies. This refers to countries of the Islamic world, including those of South-East Asia and Latin America.
In recent years, such a factor as a growth of exports to Russian economy also became particularly significant. This process is under way simultaneously with a growth of direct foreign investments. The strongest TCs consider Russia as the largest sales market for their products, there appear many connections between these companies and enterprises resident in Russian economy. These ties which exist both in the sphere of production and in that of circulation increase the stability of national economy and turn TCs into significant stakeholders of Russian economy. It is becoming especially salient today, when political forces in the West seek to isolate Russia and cause an economic damage to it, while economic forces, on the contrary, advocate the preservation of parity in the sphere of economic management.
Besides, the presence of TCs in Russia makes it possible "to teach" Russian producers and sellers standards of production organisation and ways of improving competitiveness, as well to adopt successful practices and, if necessary, methods of protection against them.
Thus, the formation of stable national economy in Russia depends on a variety of internal and external factors, as well as on increasing political, economic and financial risks. The aim of the state and national corporations consists in minimising these risks, considering them while elaborating state and corporative strategies. And this is the only way to achieve a stable growth of Russian economy.
Сведения об авторе
Бархатов Виктор Иванович — доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой экономики отраслей и рынков Челябинского государственного университета, Челябинск, Россия. [email protected]
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