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NIYAZI AZIZ. RUSSIA - CENTRAL ASIA: QUALITY OF LIFE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. TO THE ISSUE OF INTEGRATION // The article was specially written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: Central Asia, United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Index, Economic sustainability, Social sustainability, economic structure, integration.
Niyazi Aziz,
PhD ( Hist.), Senior Researcher, Centre for the Study of Central Asia, Caucasus and the Urals-Volga region, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
In 2016 it was submitted one more Human Development Report in 188 counties of the world by the United Nations Development Programme. It's given the recent data about the Human Development Index (HDI) which traditionally unites its three basic investigations. Life expectancy at birth reflects the ability to lead a long and happy life. Average time of education and its expected duration demonstrate the capability of obtaining knowledge, and gross national income per capita presents the opportunity to achieve an adequate standard of living. These three measurements are standardized by means of number values from 0 to 1 geometric mean of which is an aggregate measure of the HDI ranging from 0 to 1. Then states are ranked on the ground of this characteristic1. The HDI shows an aggregate measure of level of human development in the country, because it is sometimes used as a synonym for "quality of life."
1 Classification by the level of human development is based on fixed particulate points of this index corresponding to quartiles of allocation of component indicators. There are following particulate points: for a low level of human development - HDI less then 0,550, for an average level of human development - 0,550-0,699, for a high level of human development - 0,7000,799 and for a very high level of human development - from 0,800 and higher.
With the aim of more sophisticated measurements of human development in the report for 2016 there are delivered four composite indexes. The HDI corrected for inequality emends the HDI in view of inequality level. Gender development index compares values of the HDI for men and women. The gender inequality index shows an amount of empowerment for women and the multi-dimensional poverty index reflects measuring poverty, not related directly with income. In estimation of country's rating there are also taken into account such factors as: the situation of human rights and civil liberties, possibility for citizens to participate in public life, social security, measure of territorial and social mobility of the population, rate of cultural development, access to information, unemployment rate, criminality, protection of the environment by index of ecological efficiency (EEI)1 and others.
It should be noted that the report serves as a supplement to the sustainable development agenda for the period up to 2030 and it's also based on 17 goals accepted under the United Nations auspicesl. These mutually aiding international documents reveal the most serious problems of modernity, put forward conceptional and practical tasks to overcome global systemic crisis - critical interconnected problems of the world financial system, economy, energy, trade, environmental degradation, depletion of natural resources, social protection.
The main emphasis in the concept of human development is placed on gorgeousness of human lives, and not just richness of economies it's broader than an approach in terms of human resource satisfying people's main material requirements. The conception supposes empowerment of human choice, the extension of their influence on potential for development and well-
1 The data on Index of environmental performance in Russia and Central Asian countries are presented in the article: Aziz Niyazi. Russia - Central Asia in environmental dimensions / / Russia and Moslem world. Scientific Information bulletin /RAS Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences. Oriental Institute. Centre of scientific information researches of global and regional problems. - M., 2017. №7. P. 20-26.
being. Nonetheless economic growth is considered to be as an important mean of human progress but not as the overall goal.
It's important that the HDI report 2016 provides ecological and socio-economic indicators of sustainable development for the studied countries. Its developers note the need for an integrated approach to the concept of sustainable development. It cannot be limited only by protection of the natural resources and the environment-they suppose-because ecological decay exercises prepotent and unequal influence upon the poor, disenfranchised and vulnerable people and climate change affects the most those countries and nations which contributed to it least of all. This way from the point of view of human development, sustainable development embodies social justice.
Authors note that in the Human Development Report 2011 sustainable human development is determined as "extension of substantive liberties of fellow men with the simultaneous efforts for prevention of serious violation of such freedoms towards the future generations." This definition - they write - is similar to many simple notions of environmental sustainability. But it also reflects a deeper conception of generality in which life experience of all individuals within one generation and between generations is equally important.1
The following are some comprehensive and selected indicators representing quality of life of Russian citizens and countries of Central Asia and key markers of sustainable development. They permit to conclude the way people's life changed after the collapse of the USSR, trace the dynamics of developments, and elicit difficulties on the way of sustainable development. The tables and explanations are prepared by the author on the ground of a small part of extensive material of Human Development Report 2016 r.2
1 Human development report 2016. P. 93.
2 Human development report 2016. P.194-268. Full version of the Report in Russian is at: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr_2016_report_ russian_web.pdf (Reference date: 14.06.2017.)
In the tables a dash between two years, for example, 20052014 indicates that information is shown for the most recent year of this period. A slash between years, for example, 2005/2014, means that there is an average index for these years. Growth rate usually constitute average annual growth rate for the period between the first and the last year of the period. In the tables there are used notationkeys: ... - no data; 0 or 0,0 - zero or a number which can be rounded to zero; — not used.
Table 11
Human Development Index and its components
HDI country rating Human development index (HDI) Life expectancy at birth Expected duration of education Average duration of education Gross national income (GNI) per capita Rating by GNI per capita minus rating by HDI Rating by HDI
Value of 2015 (in years) 2015 (in years) 2015a (in years) 2015 a (in USD 2011. by PPP) 2015 2015 2014
49. Russia 0,804 70,3 15,0 12,0 23286 1 48
56. Kazakhstan 0,794 69,6 15.0 11,7 22093 -3 56
105. Uzbekistan 0,701 69,4 12,2 12,0 5748 21 108
111. Turkmenistan 0,691 65,7 10,8 9,9 14026 -32 111
120. Kyrgyzstan 0,664 70,8 13,0 10,8 3097 32 120
129. Tajikistan 0,627 69,6 11,3 10,4 2601 30 129
World in general 0,717 71,6 12,3 8,3 14447 - -
1 In the table 1 "Human development index and its components" the countries are ranged in accordance with values of HDI 2015 and values for three HDI components are detailed for each country: longevity, education (characterized by two indicators) and income. Furthermore the table presents differences between HDI and gross national income per capita ratings and also HDI 2014 ratings calculated by available in 2016 historical data with newest adjustments.
Notation keys: a-data belongs to 2015 or the last year with available information.
Definitions:
Human development index (HDI): a combined index measuring mean achievements in three basic explorations of human development: health and longevity, knowledge and decent living conditions. More details about the
process of calculating HDI values see technical note 1 on the Internet at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/ hdr2016_technical_notes.pdf/
Average duration of education: an average number of education years obtained by people at the age of 25 and older, recalculated from educational characteristic of population taking into account official duration of each level of education.
Expected duration of education: the number of education years which as it's expected can get a child who reached formal age for school enrolment, if during his life prevailing trends in the area of age indicators of education coverage indicators will be saved.
Gross national income (GNI) per capita: total return of economy from production and ownership of factors of it, minus usage charge of economic resources, belonging to the rest of the world converted into international dollars using purchasing power parity rates (PPP) and divided into mid-year population.
GNI rating per capita minus HDI rating: a difference of GNI rating per capita and HDI rating. Negative exponent means that GNI rating is higher than HDI rating.
HDI rating 2014: value of HDI rating 2014 calculated with consistent data available at the moment of HDI 2015 calculation.
Table 22
Tendencies regarding human development index 1990-2015
HDI Rank Country Human development index (HDI) Changes in rating by HDI HDI annual average growth
Value %
1990 2000 2010 2015 20102015 a 19902000 19902015
49 Russian Federation 0,733 0,720 0,785 0,804 5 -0,18 0,37
56 Kazakhstan 0,690 0,685 0,766 0,794 7 -0,07 0,56
105 Uzbekistan 0,594 0,664 0,701 6
111 Turkmenistan 0,665 0,691 2
120 Kyrgyzstan 0,615 0,593 0,632 0,664 3 -0,37 0,30
129 Tajikistan 0,616 0,535 0,608 0,627 2 -1,39 0,08
World in general 0,597 0,641 0,696 0,717 - 0,71 0,74
2 In the table 2 "Tendencies regarding human development index 19902015" there are time-series of HDI values making it possible to compare HDI 2015 values with ones of previous years. The table presents the newest corrections of historical data available in 2016 and it's used the same methodology as for HDI 2015 rating calculation. The table includes changes in rating of the countries by HDI over the past five years and average annual growth rate of HDI for four time intervals: 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2015 and 1990-2015.
Remarks: a- positive value is indicative of rating enhancing.
Definitions:
HDI average annual growth: antialiased growth of HDI year-on-year in a given time calculated as annual growth compound coefficient.
Table 3 (1)
Sustainable development3
Environmental sustainability Countries groups (tertiles)
Upper third*
Middle third*
Lower third*
Use of the symbol * ( *** ** *) for coding allows show graphically a fractional classification of countries by indicators. Countries by each index are divided in three approximately equal groups (tertiles): upper third (***), middle third (**) and lower third (*). See note to the table.
K Renewable energy sources consumption Carbon dioxide emissions Forest area Freshwater consumption Natural resource depletion
« 1—1 § ■fc n s o u (% of final energy consumption ) 2012 d Per capita (tons) 2013 Average annual change (%) 1990/2013 (%total land area) 2015 General change (%) 1990-2015 (% of total volume of renewable water resource 2005-2014 c (% GNI 2010-2014 c)
49 Russian Federation 3,2* 12,5* 49,8 0,8** 1 4*** 9,5*
56 Kazakhstan 1,4* 15,4* 1,2 -3,3** 18,4* 13,7*
105 Uzbekistan 2,4* 3,4** 7,6 5 7 *** 100,6* 9,0*
111 Turkmenistan 12,8* 8,8 0,0 35,7*
120 Kyrgyzstan 22,5** 1,7** 3,3 -23,8* 32,6* 6,1**
129 Tajikistan 58,0*** 0,4 *** 2,9 1 0** 51,1* 1 1**
World in general 17,4 4,7 0,0 30,8 -3,2 6,9 2 2**
3 Remarks: Ecological indicators introduce a set of measures of level and fluctuating data of energy consumption from renewable sources, blowout volume of carbonic oxide, forest area and freshwater use. Indicators of economic sustainability show the degradation of natural resources, national savings rate,
external debt, and volume of state research and development expenditures and an extent of economic diversification. Three-colored coding gives the possibility to present a partial classification of the countries by indicators. The countries are divided in three approximately equal groups for each indicator (tertiles): upper third, middle third, lower third.
The drafters of the table don't intentionally offer threshold requirement or target value for these indicators. Secondary correlation of genders numbers is an exception: the countries are divided in 2 groups-natural, with range of values from 1,04 to 1,07(inclusive) and tendentious in gender respect (if a value exceeds the limits an the natural diapason). Details of the partial classification in this table see technical note 7 on the Internet at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/ default / files/hdr2016_technical_notes. pdf/
a - this column isn't intentionally coloured as it was meant to provide a context for fluctuating data of forest area.
b - the data refer to 2012 or the last year of the period for which statistics are available.
c - data belong to the last year of the period for which there is a statistics. d - the projections based on average option of dynamics of birth rate. e -data refer to 2011. Definitions:
Renewable energy sources consumption: a share of renewable energy sources in bulk of final energy input. Renewable energy sources include hydroelectric, geothermic, solar power, tidal energy resources, wind, biomass and biofuel.
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita: anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result from fossil fuel combustion, flaring and cement production divided into mid-year population base. Include carbon dioxide emitted by forest biomass with depletion of forests.
Forest area: the land area stretching more than for 0,5 hectares with trees more than 5 m high and vegetation cover occupying more than 10% of this space or trees capable to reach these threshold values in vivo. This indicator doesn't include the lands being mainly in agricultural or city land use, the lots occupied with trees in agricultural production systems (for example, on fruit plantations or in agroforestry systems) and trees in city parks and gardens. This indicator involves territories, averted for reafforestation which didn't , but as it's expected , must reach 10% level of vegetational cover and 5meters height of trees also temporally deforested territories in the result of natural causes or human interference in which reafforestation will be realized as it's expected.
Fresh water consumption: complex selection of fresh water to total volume of renewable water resources.
Natural-resource depletion: depletion of energy, mineral and forest resources in monetary terms, as a percentage of overall gross national income (GNI).
Adjusted net savings are equal to net national savings plus expenses for education and minus exhaustion of energy, mineral substances, exhaustion of the woods and damage from emissions of carbon dioxide and firm particles. Net
national savings are equal to gross national savings minus value of consumption of fixed capital.
External debt: debt for non-residents repayable in foreign currency, goods and services, in percentage terms to gross national income (GNI).
Research and development expenditure: current and capital expenses (state and private) on creative work systematically implemented with a view to increase knowledge, including of knowing human sciences, culture and society and their use in new spheres. Research study and development whelm definitive study, applied research and experimental development.
Export concentration index: indicator of concentration level of a product in the export from the country. Index value close to 1 shows that export from the country focuses largely on narrow range of products. On the contrary indexes closer to 0 reflect more homogenous distribution of export volumes among several items indicating a high level of economic diversification.
Quintillion income coefficient (average annual change): change in attitude of median income of 20% of the richest to average income of the poorest 20% of population for the period 2000-2014 divided in correspondent number of years.
Gender inequality index (average annual change): gender inequality index change for the period 2005-2015 divided in correspondent number of years.
Population living in multidimensional poverty (average annual change): percentage change of population living in conditions of multidimensional poverty for the period 2005-2014 divided in correspondent number of years.
The average demographic burden of older people: projected ratio of population aged 65 and over to people aged 15-64 represented as dependency ratios per 100 people of working age (15-64 years).
Table 3 (2)
Sustainable development
Economic sustainability
HDI Rank Country Adjusted net savings External debdt Research-and-development expenditure Export concentration index
(% CHI) 2005-2014c (% GNI) 2005-2014c (% GNI) 2005-2014c Value 2014
Russian
49 Federation 11 9** 1,2*** 0,370**
56 Kazakhstan 3,0* 83,3* 0,2* 0,668*
105 Uzbekistan 20 4*** 0,2* 0,281**
111 Turkmenistan 1 0*** 0,756*
120 Kyrgyzstan -5,8* 101,1* 0,1* 0,175***
129 Tajikistan 14 3*** 44,3** 0,1* 0,406*
World
in general 13,0 21,4 2,0* -
Table 3 (3)
Sustainable development
Social sustainability
Quintillion income coefficient Gender inequality index Population living in poverty Dependency ratios
HDI Rank Country Average annual change (%) 2000/2014 Average annual change (%) 2005/2015 Average Annual change (%) 2005/2014 The aged (65 years old and older) per 100 people aged 15-64 2030 d
Russian
49 Federation 1,6* 2 3*** 29,5*
56 Kazakhstan 2 5*** 4 5*** 9 9*** 15,6**
105 Uzbekistan 11 9**
111 Turkmenistan 11,0**
120 Kyrgyzstan 1 3** 4 2*** -5,5** 121**
129 Tajikistan 01** 1 2** -8,6*** 91**
World in general - - - -
As it can be seen in the table № 1 in the list of 188 countries Russia belongs to the group of countries with a very high level human development. But in this group consisting of 51 countries it occupies 49th not very honorable place. Since 2014 Russia shifted on it from 48thplace that is connected with economic difficulties. Kazakhstan is on the 56th position in the group of states with high level of HDI. Uzbekistan is the last in this group occupying 105thplace rising from 108 th one in 2014. Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan form part of the group with average level consequently taking the 111th, 120th and 129th places. Compared with 2014 HDI rating didn't change in these three republics and Kazakhstan that reflects socio-economic stagnation.
Generally it's possible to state a big gap in the quality of life of Russian and Kazakh people on the one hand and the four
remaining republics in Central Asia from the other one. Their HDI is lower above the global average and Russia's and Kazakhstan's is higher. Similarly gross national income (GNI) per capita in differs significantly, in Russia and Kazakhstan it's noticeably higher above the global average, in Turkmenistan it's almost the same as the global one, in other three republics of Central Asia it's notably lower. At the same time negative exponents of Kazakhstan and particularly Turkmenistan by GNI rating per capita minus HDI rating show frequent situation when the quality of life falls behind and sometimes significantly from economy growth with resource orientation and focus on heavy industry. Turkmenistan furthermore demonstrates the worst rate for life expectancy, and all studied countries fall short below the global average. It also has the lowest indexes of expected duration of training and its mean time. Note that by the latter figure Russia and all Central Asian countries surpass the averaged global level. However the quality of education generates a question what and how do they teach?
The table № 2 reflecting the tendencies in the sphere of HDI since 1990 to 2015 clearly demonstrates a serious declining of quality of life in the studied countries after the collapse of the USSR and its long-term slight increase, being in arrears of worldwide average index. In this context it is apparent that human development is not always connected directly with gross national income, enhanced economic growth and type of government. For example Kyrgyzstan is the first country in Central Asia which put radically in place economic, political and legal reforms following the neoliberal form shows serious slowdown of human development potential in the first two decades of independence and its low growth. According to the values of HDI it hardly gets ahead of war-torn and slowly recovering Tajikistan with pseudo-democratic and obviously clannish regime. In both cases economic growth is insignificant, but political and economic freedoms differ greatly.
Sustainable development ecological indices of the table № 3 demonstrate prominent discrepancies in the studied countries on consumption of renewable sources of energy. High indexes of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan surpass average ones around the world, related to the extensive use of hydropower because of natural and geographical conditions. In all the remaining countries they are low and keep up considerably with the global indicators. Primarily it's connected to traditional consumption of own hydrocarbons and weak developing alternate energy sources policy. Consequently the indices of carbon dioxide emissions vary. Diverse situation is observed with forest conservation. The most favorable situation is in Uzbekistan due to state programme of their extension. The worst one is in Kyrgyzstan. In all republics of Central Asia it's noted a stringent situation with fresh water use. Furthermore Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and particularly Turkmenistan demonstrate disturbing rate of environmental depletion. Precarious situation in this sphere is seen also in Russia.
Upon indications of economic security the Russian Federation takes the lead among the reviewed countries. Let's turn attention to expenses of Russia and Central Asian countries with regard to scientific researches and developments. Although Russia remains short of the global reach even so they are satisfying while in the countries of Central Asia they are very low. In all countries except for Kyrgyzstan it is observed high dependence on the export especially in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. At the same time Kyrgyzstan outruns other states in Central Asia on the external debt, it exceeds universal level in Kazakhstan, but it's extremely low in Turkmenistan.
Available data on social sustainability for all countries is in general satisfactory. Attention should be drawn to problem dependency ratios in Russia. It significantly surpasses indexes in Central Asian countries.
Since the preparation of the recent Human Development Report 2016 the situation in the countries under review hasn't fundamentally changed. In the meantime in the framework of the
Eurasian Economic Union it was continued the development of integration among Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, at the bilateral level with Uzbekistan. Tajikistan which earlier established strategic partnership with the RF prepares to get an observer status with the Eurasian Economic Union. Friendly business relations are maintained with Turkmenistan.
From now forward preserving congregative tendency Russia can become a driving force of technology breakthrough towards priority development approval in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union of a single scientific and technical, industrial and agricultural policy. Multispeed and split-level integration supposes division of labor among republics on sectors. Such a successful experience took place in the USSR. It should be used. However distribution of productive capacities claims scrutinous revision depending on environmental conditions, economic structure, correlation of rural and urban population, population process in diverse republics. We have to go take into account the quality of employee's work of different specialties and also traditional values of Russian and Central Asian nations. Advanced social and environmental technologies may successfully steer to matrix of developed for centuries social interactions, building them in life arrangement.
There is reason to believe that when developing integration processes in Central Asia in the coming decades it will be possible to overcome serious economic, environmental and cultural problems of the region, enhance remarkably the quality of people's life.
