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L. Khoperskaya,
MONITORING OF THE ETHNO-POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE CIS COUNTRIES. KYRGYZSTAN
The annual report of the Network of Ethnological Monitoring for 2009 made the conclusion that the world financial crisis did not bring about "essential collisions in the socio-political spheres of most postSoviet states. Tension has increased in individual cases, particularly in Kyrgyzstan. It could be asserted that during the period of revolutionary changes in that country high tension acquired a systemic character there.
The noticeable manifestations of the crisis of power and its relations with citizens were expressed in the inability of the central authorities to control the regional elites, and in the actual merger of state administrative bodies and law-enforcement agencies with organized crime. The conflict between the president and parliament was augmented by inner-parliamentary confrontation, and apart from that a constant struggle was going on between the opposition and the authorities. Ethnic tension was also on an increase in the republic.
In June 2010 a new Constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic was adopted at a referendum. It proclaimed, among other things, the status of the "titular nation", and ethnocratic nationalism with a tint of aggressive anti-Uzbek and anti-Russian feelings.
The medium and resources. After the overthrow of President K. Bakiyev a harsh struggle began for control over drug trafficking and drug trade, as well as for material and power resources. In the past two years the volumes of drug production and trafficking have grown considerably, and today Kyrgyzstan can be compared with Afghanistan in this respect. The incomes from drug production and trafficking are estimated at $20 billion.
Seizure of land and water resources is also a source of constant conflicts between representatives of the titular nation and migrants, which acquire an inter-ethnic character.
Demography and migration. Mass migration from the Kyrgyz Republic grew noticeably in 2010-2011. It concerns mainly representatives of national minorities. According to certain data, the number of residents of the Kyrgyz Republic who left the country for good reached 548,000 in 2010. They included mostly Russian-speaking people and Uzbeks. In the nine months of 2011 the number of migrants amounted to 37, 365.
Economy and social sphere. First of all, it should be noted that the direct economic damage caused by the April revolution and the inter-ethnic conflict in the South of the republic, summer of 2010, amounted to one billion 56 million som in that part of the republic alone.
The post-revolutionary period was also characterized by speedy and illegitimate nationalization. The provisional government decreed the nationalization of forty companies without any legal basis. In all, more than five hundred objects, above all, mining and processing enterprises, were nationalized. The investment losses comprised approximately $1 billion. The volumes of foreign investments decreased by fifty percent, and new investments projects were suspended at both the republican and regional levels.
The main instrument of property redistribution in the Kyrgyz Republic were forcible takeovers of property belonging quite often to foreign entrepreneurs from Kazakhstan and Russia, including the owners of boarding houses and rest & recreation centers on Lake Issyk Kul.
Special mention should be made of property redistribution of Uzbek owners. Their belongings were openly confiscated and turned over to the state, or arbitrarily appropriated by representatives of the powers that be.
Property redistribution and nationalization policy have shocked the business community and investors who began to withdraw their capital from Kyrgyzstan. Naturally, this increased the budget deficit considerably. In 2011 the total foreign debt of the Kyrgyz Republic comprised $3 billion 325 million, or 55 percent of the GDP, and basic inflation was 17.6 percent.
Power, the state, politics. One of the most acute post-revolutionary problems was that of ethnic representation. The political elite demands that representatives of the "non-titular" ethnic groups be deprived of all types of political activity. Speeches and statements in Russian (which is still considered the official language) are negatively received.
In 2010-2011 two variants of the state concept of nationalities policy began to be evolved and discussed. The first was based on the idea of a civic poly-ethnic nation.
The other, put forward by the Ata-Zhurt party, had an openly nationalistic character. It emphasized the special role of the "titular nation" in the Kyrgyz Republic. This variant declared the purposeful development of the Kyrgyz nation as the integrating and consolidating nucleus of Kyrgyz society and as the basic element of nationalities policy.
Education, culture, the mass media. Quite a few public organizations, the mass media and the Internet give numerous examples of violations of human rights on the ethnic principle, especially in the sphere of legal procedures, unlawful arrests, torture, and raider-related crime. Human rights organizations voice concern over the policy of genocide against the Uzbek population and negligence of the authorities with regard to manifestations of nationalism. On the contrary, the authorities crack down on human rights activists and the independent
press which raise their voice against these manifestations and inactivity of the powers that be.
According to some local experts, nationalism has become an idea ardently supported by the state and government, which means "to take away everything from the aliens" and distribute it among "our own."
Contacts and stereotypes. According to the conclusions made by the special representative of the OSCE on the basis of many interviews with local people, 750 eyewitness accounts, documents, photos and video recordings, the situation in Kyrgyzstan is characterized as "political fanaticism with numerous cases of ethnic abuse with tragic consequences."
The head of the State Committee for national security of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sh. Atakhanov, reported at the end of December 2011 that there were 147 seats of interethnic tension, 29 of which require urgent reaction.
Foreign conditions. The position of Kyrgyzstan in the sphere of "many-vector policy" and the presence of foreign military bases on the country's territory in the post-revolutionary period has not changed. In the first "revolutionary days" the temporary President R. Otunbayeva asked the leadership of Russia for support, but at the same time stated that the "new leaders of the country would prolong the treaty with the United States on the lease of the "Manas" military base. At present the base serves as a transit center and will continue to function up to the year 2014. Strategic military projects started with Russia have not materialized. Yet, during her visit to the United States Rosa Otunbayeva was awarded the international woman's prize for valor and discussed the question on the opening of an American military training center in the south of the Kyrgyz Republic.
An important consequence of the "many-vector policy" was the fact that Islamization of the country has ceased to be under control.
Islamic countries increase their influence in the Kyrgyz Republic through the opening of Islamic centers, creation of Islamic foundation and associations, and construction of mosques and prayer houses. Turkey is especially active in this respect. Foreign organizations finance nine Islamic higher educational institutions and about 60 madrasahs. The number of people supporting the ideas and program of the "Hizb-ut-Tahrir" party exceeds 100,000. In their work with the population they use the tactic of missionaries, tackle everyday-life and social problems, and distribute money for food, etc., as well as help with getting interest-free credits. At the same time they try to penetrate governmental bodies, drawing government officials, businessmen, parliamentarians, etc. in their ranks. Thus they prepare foundations for the creation of an Islamic state.
A special field is the development of Islamic bank system. In June 2011 the share of Islamic financing from all bank credit resources of the republic amounted to five percent, and it is planned to increase it to 10-12 percent by 2015. The task is to draw investments to Kyrgyzstan's economy from the rich countries of the Arabian Peninsula, Malaysia, and other states of the Muslim world.
The nationalistically-minded local elite is dissatisfied with the assessments of international experts of the June events in the South of the Kyrgyz Republic. It also criticizes the Russian leaders V. Putin and D. Medvedev, the Russian Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, as well as some Russian journalists and experts for their attitude to certain developments in the republic.
As to the further development of the situation in Kyrgyzstan, it can be determined by the following factors:
Contradictions are growing between the president with rather limited powers by the new Constitution, the incapable parliament, the
corrupt government, and the gangs of criminals controlling drug production and trafficking.
People have a great many arms on their hands, and political leaders boast their own armed units ready to support them at any moment.
The South of the Kyrgyz Republic is virtually self-governed.
The military presence of the United States is expanding; more military training centers are set up in the South of the republic.
Turkey is engaged in an active religious expansion, and also creates a military educational institution with a considerable ideological tint.
There are no prospects for a constructive dialogue with the Uzbek community, because no real Uzbek leader is in sight, who could agree to talks with the Kyrgyz side, which, in its turn, searches for and sees "Uzbek traces" in every negative phenomenon.
The Kyrgyz authorities are unable to give the Russian Federation firm guarantees to fulfill their obligations as a strategic partner.
"Etnopoliticheskaya situatsiya v Rossii i sopredelnykh gosudarstvakh v 2011 g." Moscow, 2012, pp. 587-595.
THE ROLES AND ACTORS WILL CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL"KABUKI THEATER" (Conversation which Dina Malysheva,
D. Sc. (Hist.), had with Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Naumkin, Director of the Institute for Oriental Studies RAS)
D. Malysheva. Many experts, here and in the West, predict a shift of the centers of global dynamics from Europe and the Atlantic
