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METHODOLOGICAL APPARATUS OF AN INTEGRATED EXPERT ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INFOCOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES APPLICATION
Alexander D. Kuzovkov,
MTUCI, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]
Keywords: infocommunication technologies; Socio-economic efficiency; Integral-expert method, methodical apparatus.
The article reveals the essence and methodology of application of the integrated expert method to the assessment of socio-economic efficiency of infocommunication technologies (ICT) application taking into account a multitude of display of the effect and consequences. The methodological mechanism of an integrated expert assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application is based on the principles of construction of complex indicators and application of the expert-quali-metric method (ECM), which consists of obtaining quantitative assessments of efficiency by means of expert evaluation of its significant parameters. To substantiate the most important indicators of an integrated assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT use, as well as to assess the comparative significance of private indicators in aggregated indicators for specific areas of economic and social efficiency, taking into account positive and negative effects, the expert evaluation method (the Delphi method) that enables to generalize the individual experts opinions into the agreed group opinion and on the basis of the mathematical and statistical methanism to justify the reliability of the results received. The integral indicator of the effectiveness of ICT use is calculated in the form of a relative coefficient as the ratio of integrated efficient and cost indicators, weighted by the weight of the economic and social component of efficiency, the aggregate partial indicators quantitatively measured by experts (in points).
Practical use of the integrated expert method for a comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application provides the formation of parameters for assessing effectiveness, scales for measuring them, and assessing their significance while maintaining a common approach to ECM indicators. The algorithm includes a sequence of stages of information analysis on the nature of effects and consequences of economic and social nature, expert evaluation of the importance of private indicators and immediate evaluation by experts of the effectiveness, processing and analysis of the results of expert evaluation. The proposed methodological apparatus for socio-economic assessment of the effectiveness of ICT applications allows us to obtain fairly reliable results on the basis of an expert poll and apply them to regulate the processes of creating an information society, taking into account the real state and potential level in the prospective period.
Information about author:
Kuzovkov Alexander Dmitrievich, Post-graduate student of the Department of Communication Economics of the Moscow Technical University of Communications and Informatics, Moscow, Russia
Для цитирования:
Кузовков А.Д. Методический аппарат интегрально-экспертной оценки социально-экономической эффективности применения инфокоммуникационных технологий // T-Comm: Телекоммуникации и транспорт. 2017. Том 11. №8. С. 59-62.
For citation:
Kuzovkov A.D. (2017). Methodological apparatus of an integrated expert assessment of socio-economic efficiency of infocommunication technologies application. T-Comm, vol. 11, no.8, рр. 59-62.
f I Л
The application of the expert-qualimetric approach, the methods of calculating complex indicators and the technology of expert questioning of the effectiveness of 1CT application with an assessment of the significance of generalizing indicators and the advisability of introducing private indicators into the model, taking into account the positive and negative effects of informatization and the use of ICT, have provided the basis for the formation of ail integrated indicator of the effectiveness of ICT applications [2-4]. The integral indicator of the effectiveness of ICT application is calculated in the form of a relative coefficient as the ratio of the integrated performance and cost indicators weighted by the weight of the economic and social component efficiency, based on a set of partial indicators quantitatively measured by experts (in points).
Based on the analysis of international and national indicators that assess the movement towards the information society, the evolution of the parameters of the development of infocommunications and the nature of the manifestation of the effects of ICT use in economic and social life, a list of indicators of the socioeconomic efficiency of ICT application in relation to the formation of the information society was developed, in connection with the formation of a system of partial parameters of a model for the integrated assessment of the effectiveness of ICT applications [6, 7].
An integrated system for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application in connection with the formation of the information society has a hierarchical system and includes two blocks of integrated assessments reflecting the positive effects and negative consequences of the use of ICT and informatization processes (Figure 1), Integral and cost-effective indicators of the effectiveness of the usage of ICT are based on a system of generalizing and particular indicators of economic and social efficiency [2-4].
in developing a comprehensive system of integrated expert evaluation of the effectiveness of ICT application, it is important to select key private performance indicators that, on the one hand, reflect the social and economic consequences of informatization, on the other hand, the extent of coverage of economic activities, social groups and territories of consumption of info-communication technologies and services. The integrated system for assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application includes: integrated performance indicators: efficiency and cost, summarizing the resultant and cost-effective indicators of economic and social efficiency, calculated on the basis of the aggregate of the most significant private indicators for research clusters.
The formation of a model for an integrated assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT applications, taking into account the multitude of influencing factors, the synergetic effect and the negative consequences of informatization, is based on scientific approaches to the formation of integrated indicators, the selection of methods most appropriate to the task and the development of a methodological tool for provision of the expert evaluation of the effectiveness of ICT application in interrelation with the formation of an information society.
The use of expert-qualimetric approach, methods of calculation of complex parameters and technology of the expert survey the effectiveness of ICT application with the assessment of the significance of general indicators and the feasibility of the introduction of a model of private indicators, taking into account the
positive and negative ICT information and application of the consequences of effects give rise to the formation of the model of integral index of the effectiveness of the use of ICT in the form of relative efficiency coefficient as a ratio of integral resulting and cost indicators, weighted by the weight of the economic and social components of efficiency.
Forming a group of experts according lo the spheres of economic activity, social groups and territories of consumption of infocom muni cation technologies and services
Self-assessment of the competence of experts on the level of awareness and reasoning and evaluation of the quality of experts
Expert assessment of the feasibility of including and adding private indicators of ICT performance
Formation of the final list of private indicators
Expert evaluation of the importance of private indicators in the context of generalizing the productive and cost indicators of the economic and social effectiveness of ICTs
Direct expert evaluation of the effectiveness of ICT: actual - as of the current period and potential for the long-term period
Calculation oi summarizing effective and cost indicators of the economic and social efficiency of ICT and the coefficient of integrated ICT efficiency
Analysis of the results obtained and development of measures to increase the efficiency of ICT, accelerate the development of infocommunications and the formation of an information society
Figure 1. Integrated system for assessing the effectiveness of ICT applications in the relationship with the formation of the information
society
Integral and summarizing effective and cost effectiveness indicators, in their turn, can be calculated based on the results of expert evaluation of the individual indicators based on the arithmetic mean (simple, weighted) in absolute terms (in points) or calculated indices in relative terms using the method of normalized deviations or normalized values. To confirm the validity of the results of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the development of infocommunications and the information society, a comparison can be made with the results of a comprehensive evaluation of the positive and negative effects using the distance method [1, 5].
The model of the integral coefficient of social and economic efficiency of the application of ICT on the basis of points in the absolute dimension has the form:
ff.
wr utim.pet.
n„.
il * fi + /7 *d
otî.p.ik. " ff.if;. oô.fKcoif. ^ fT.coif. '
FI * d + [J * ci
- I-U' fJÔ.IXtni. IXOif,
n^t^d,
(l)
wlicre K^p,p - integral coefficient of socio-economic efficiency of using ICT and development of i n foe om muni cations (relative unit); nmmpc„ n,mmlomp - effective and costs integrated indicators of the effectiveness of the application of ICT and the development of infocommunications; niX-,p7K: no6jDK - generalizing the resultant and cost-effective indicators of economic efficiency; n,,6.p.anr n<>6.3jvif ^ generalizing the productive and cost indicators of social efficiency; /7, — I-th partial indicator in the context of generalizing indicators; d, - the significance oT the i-th partial indicator; n - number of i's partial indicators.
Based on the analysis of international and national indicators that assess the movement towards the information society, the evolution of the parameters of the development of infocommunications and the nature of the manifestation of the effects of ICT in economic and social life, we identified a list of indicators of the socio-economic effectiveness of ICT in relation to the formation of the information society {Figure 2).
Indicators of the effectiveness of the application of ICT in the relationship with the formation or the information society
T
I* Economic growth through innovative development and the introduction of ICT % Saving of time, labor and material resources
y Increase in the share of information resources in the structure of production resources
4. Reduction of technological risks
5. Increase of the efficiency of management
1. The new quality of the productive forces - the intellectuality of labor
2. Mobility of labor resources
3. The possibility of remote electronic services
4. Increase in the proportion of free lime
5. Automation and robotization of housing
1. Expenditures for the development of inlbcommunicatio n infrastructure
2. Costs for information training and information security
3. The costs of suppression of cybcr-terrorism
4. Risks (information, cybernetic)
5. Information asymmetry
Visualization of values, ethics, morality - the inability to real life
2, Impairment of physical and mental health
3, Formation of clip-art thinking
4, The electronic inequality
Figure 2. Set of indicators and factors of the effectiveness of ICT in the formation of the information society
For justification of the most important indicators of an integrated assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application, as well as to assess the comparative significance of private indicators in generalizing indicators for specific areas of economic and social efficiency, taking into account positive and negative effects, the expert evaluation method (the Delphi method) is used that enables to generalize the opinions of individual experts into the united group opinion and on the basis of the mathematical and statistical apparatus to justify the reliability of the results obtained [1, 2,4, 5].
When developing a comprehensive system for assessing the effectiveness of ICT in the formation of the information society, it is important to select key private performance indicators that, on the one hand, reflect the socio-economic consequences of informatization, on the other hand, the extent of coverage of economic activities, social groups and areas of consumption by infocommunication technologies and services - the electronic environment of social and economic life.
Practical use of the integral-expert method for a comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of ICT application provides the formation of parameters for assessing effectiveness, scales for their measurements, and assessment of their significance while maintaining a common approach to ECM indicators [1, 2, 5].
The algorithm of the procedure for expert evaluation of the effectiveness of ICT application on the basis of an integrated expert method is presented in Figure 3. The algorithm includes a sequence of stages of information analyisys of the nature of effects and consequences of an economic and social nature, expert evaluation of the importance of private indicators and immediate expert evaluation of the effectiveness, processing and analysis of the results of expert evaluation [2, 4],
Comprehensive assessment or the effectiveness of ICT application in connection w ith the formation of an information society
Integral Efficiency Score (positive effect)
Integral Efficiency Score (negative effect)
Generalizing effective indicator of economic efficicncy
Generalizing effective indicator of social efficiency
Generalizing cost indicator of economic efficiency
Generalizing cost indicator of social efficiency
Informational and analytical apparatus for justification of the factors and parameters of the integrated assessment of the efficiency of ICT application is realized on the basis of the collection of expert data on the appropriateness of including of certain particular indicators in the generalizing and integral indicator; of the value of the importance of particular indicators in the composition of the integrative components of the integrated assessment of economic and social efficiency in the context of positive and negative effects (costs, consequences); statistical processing of information obtained through the expert survey, including analysis of the variation of expert opinions on a set of private indicators and an assessment of the consistency of the views of the members of the expert group; and interpretation of the results of the effectiveness evaluation.
J.
Spheres of economic Social groups Area of ICT consumption
activity and services
Figure 3. The algorithm of the procedure for expert evaluation of the effectiveness of ICT applications in the relationship with the formation of the information society based on the integrated expert method
The objective of the expert survey is to justify the parameters of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of ICT applications in relation to the formation of the information society on the basis of the scoring method of peer review and conduction of a direct assessment of the effectiveness of ICT application in a system of private indicators of the productive and cost compo-
7TT
nenls of economic and social efficiency with die aim of regulating the processes of informatization of society [2, 6, 7|.
This questionnaire is completed by the expert taking into account the positive and negative effects/barriers of economic and social nature that accompany the development of infocommuni-cations and the formation of the information society. After getting acquainted with the private indicators of the effectiveness of the application of ICT, the expert assesses the points about the advisability of including in the model an integral evaluation of the effectiveness of the private performance indicators in accordance with the three-point scale of assessment, their significance — on a 100% scale and the efficiency level for each private indicator in the context of the generalized five-point scale.
Self-assessment of the expert is made on a five-point scale. For each indicator, only one score is taken from the three/five positions pf the rating scale. When determining the significance of particular indicators in the composition of the aggregate performance indicators, the sum of the weights of all particular indicators should be equal to 100% and this should be taken into account.
Based on the results of the assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of the use of ICT, reserves for its growth are established and measures arc being developed to accelerate the creation of an information society based on deeper and more comprehensive use of ICT in the economy and society,
МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ АППАРАТ ИНТЕГРАЛЬНО-ЭКСПЕРТНОЙ ОЦЕНКИ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ИНФОКОММУНИКАЦИОННЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ
Кузовков Александр Дмитриевич, МТУСИ, Москва, Россия, [email protected]
Дннотация
Раскрывается сущность и методика применения интегрально-экспертного метода к оценке социально-экономической эффективности применения ин-фокоммуникационных технологий (ИКТ) с учетом множества проявлений эффекта и последствий. Методический аппарат интегрально-экспертной оценки социально-экономической эффективности применения ИКТ основан на принципах построения комплексных показателей и применении экс-пертно-квалиметрического метода (ЭКМ), состоящего в получении количественных оценок эффективности посредством экспертного оценивания ее значимых параметров. Для обоснования наиболее важных показателей интегральной оценки социально-экономической эффективности применения ИКТ, а также оценки сопоставительной значимости частных показателей в обобщающих показателях по конкретным направлениям экономической и социальной эффективности с учетом положительных и отрицательных эффектов применен метод экспертных оценок (метод "Дельфи"), позволяющий обобщать мнения отдельных экспертов в согласованное групповое мнение и на основе математико-статистического аппарата обосновать достоверность полученных результатов. Интегральный показатель эффективности применения ИКТ рассчитывается в форме относительного коэффициента как соотношения интегральных результативных и затратных показателей, взвешенных по весу экономической и социальной компонент эффективности, по совокупности частных показателей, количественно измеренных экспертами (в баллах). Практическое использование интегрально-экспертного метода к комплексной оценке социально-экономической эффективности применения ИКТ предусматривает формирование параметров оценки эффективности, шкал их измерения и оценку их значимости с сохранением общего подхода к индикаторам по ЭКМ. Алгоритм включает последовательность этапов анализа информации о характере эффектов и последствий экономического и социального характера, экспертной оценки значимости частных показателей и непосредственной оценки экспертами эффективности, обработки и анализа результатов экспертного оценивания. Предлагаемый методический аппарат социально-экономической оценки эффективности применения ИКТ позволяет на основе экспертного опроса получить достаточно достоверные результаты и применить их для регулирования процессов создания информационного общества с учетом реального состояния и потенциального уровня в перспективном периоде.
Ключевые слова: инфокоммуникационные технологии, социально-экономическая эффективность, интегрально-экспертный метод, методический аппарат. Литература
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Информация об авторе: Кузовков Александр Дмитриевич, аспирант кафедры "Экономика связи" МТУСИ, Россия, Москва
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