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5УДК: 330.113.4
LARGE AND MEDIUM-SIZED ORGANIZATIONS OF THE RUSSIA IN
2017-2019
Narinyan N.E.
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected] Narinyan T.K.
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. The paper provides an analytical review of the dynamics of the number and financial indicators of large and medium-sized organizations and enterprises of the Russian economics. Due to the fact, that recently there has been a significant number of bankruptcies and liquidations of enterprises and organizations in Russia, the indicator of the number of enterprises itself is becoming more important and significant than ever. The analysis offinancial stability and solvency of the aggregated economic entities by the main branches of economics is carried out and illustrated. In the work the level of profitability (loss) of goods, works, and services sold; the Autonomy Coefficient (The share of own funds in the balance sheet currency); Current liquidity Ratio are used. The statistical influence of the autonomy coefficient on the level of profitability is estimated. Correlation analysis methods in this work are used. Large and medium-sized organizations are the dominant component of the entire Russian economy, which determines the main development trends. The predominant number of industries are characterized by positive results that contribute to economic growth in the state as a whole.
Key words: the number of large and medium-sized organizations; the level ofprofitability of goods, works, services sold; the coefficient of autonomy by type of activity; the current liquidity ratio by type of activity; All-Russian classifier of economic activities - 2.
КРУПНЫЕ И СРЕДНИЕ ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ РОССИИ В 2017 - 2019 ГГ.
Наринян Н.Е.
Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН, Москва, Россия
E-mail: [email protected] Наринян Т.К.
Российский Университет Дружбы Народов, Москва, Россия E-mail: [email protected]
Аннотация. В работе осуществлён аналитический обзор динамики числа и финансовых индикаторов крупных и средних организаций и предприятий российской экономики. В связи с тем, что в последнее время происходит заметное число банкротств и ликвидаций предприятий и организаций в России, сам по себе показатель числа предприятий становится как никогда важным и значимым. Проведён и проиллюстрирован анализ финансовой устойчивости и платежеспособности агрегированных субъектов хозяйствования по основным отраслям экономики; при использовании уровня рентабельности, коэффициента автономии и коэффициента текущей ликвидности. Исследовано статистическое влияние коэффициента автономии на уровень рентабельности проданных товаров, работ, услуг по основным видам экономической деятельности. В работе применяются методы корреляционного анализа. Крупные и средние организации являются доминирующей составляющей всей российской экономики, определяющей основные тенденции развития. Преобладающее количество отраслей характеризуются позитивными результатами, способствующими экономическому росту в целом по государству.
Ключевые слова: число крупных и средних организаций; уровень рентабельности проданных товаров, работ, услуг; коэффициент автономии по видам деятельности; коэффициент текущей ликвидности по видам деятельности; Общероссийский классификатор видов экономической деятельности -2.
Due to the fact, that recently there has been a significant number of bankruptcies and liquidations of enterprises and organizations in Russia, the indicator of the number of enterprises itself is becoming more important and significant than ever, although it does
not reflect the profitability and capacity of production or services, the weight of the organization. However, the work will be based not only on the number of economic entities, but also on some of their financial and economic characteristics. Since large and
medium-sized enterprises and organizations clearly have a significant weight in the economy, monitoring their numbers and economic results in Russia is particularly important.
Large enterprises are currently characterized by an average number of employees over 250 people and revenue from the sale of goods, works, and services for the previous calendar year, excluding value-added tax, which is over 2 billion rubles. Medium-Sized enterprises have an average number of employees ranging from 101 to 250 people and revenue from the sale of goods, works, and services for the previous
calendar year, excluding value-added tax, which is from 800 million rubles to 2 billion rubles.
Since 2017, large and medium-sized organizations in the Russian Federation have had a relatively constant number. A feature of this milestone date is the transition of statistical aggregate data generation to the improved classifier of economic activities OKVED -2 (All-Russian classifier of economic activities - 2). Significant institutional and territorial changes also took place in the regions of the Russian Federation until 2017, therefore, earlier data in retrospect cannot be comparable.
Figure. 1. Large and medium-sized organizations and enterprises for OKVED - 2 in the first half of year, thou [1].
Symbols: A - agriculture, forestry and fishing. C - mining and quarrying. D - manufacturing. E -electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. W - water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. F - construction.
G - wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. I - transportation and storage. H -accommodation and food service activities. Z -information and communication. J - financial and insurance activities. K -real estate activities. X - professional, scientific and technical activities. R - administrative and support service activities.
L - public administration and defence; compulsory social security. M - education. N - human health and social work
activities. O - arts, entertainment and recreation.
In total, in the first half of 2019, there are 48.8 thousand large and medium-sized enterprises in the Russian Federation (here and further according to statistical data [1]). This is not so much for a large state like Russia. In the early 2000s, there were more large and medium-sized enterprises. Thus, at the end of 2003, the number of large and medium-sized enterprises reached 102.1 thousand, of which there were 60.0 thousand profitable enterprises. In the first half of 2019, large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises are the most numerous, there are 10.5 thousand of them (Fig. 1). Trade organizations are in
the second place among large and medium-sized enterprises - 7.4 thousand. Agricultural large and medium-sized organizations include 4.0 thousand enterprises. In the first half of 2019, there are 3.2 thousand large and medium-sized organizations in construction.
Thus, there is a general trend of a small increase in the number of large and medium-sized organizations in all major economic activities. As for June 2019, there is some growth in large and medium-sized organizations compared to the previous period (Fig. 1). This is manifested primarily in such economic
activities as "Manufacturing" (10.5 thousand), "Trade" (7.4 thousand), "Agriculture" (4.0 thousand), "Transportation and storage" (3.3 thousand), "real estate operations" (2.8 thousand). The number of enterprises in the "Water Supply and Sanitation" sector is slightly reduced (1.8 thousand).
In general, the share of profitable enterprises in the main types of economic activity is relatively high and does not vary very much. For the period from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2019, the overall ratio of the number of profitable organizations to the number of enterprises in a whole is reduced by only 6 percentage points: from 65.8% to 65.2%. It should be noted that an enterprise is considered profitable if its net financial result (profit minus loss) for the reporting period is positive and differs from zero. At the same time, data on large aggregated types of economic activity are summed up and the result is general for the industry.
"State administration and military security; social security" has the highest proportion of profitable large and medium-sized organizations in the first quarter of 2019 and its growth - 77.4% (in the first quarter of
2017 - 62.3%). You can find out what is the profitability of this type of economic activity in essence by studying a more detailed classification of OKVED - 2. Note that this type of economic activity is the smallest by organizations - 62 units in the first quarter of 2019 (in the first quarter of2017 - 53 units). Agriculture is in the second place among the aagregated types of economic activity by the share of profitable enterprises in the period under review -76.6% (in the first quarter of 2017 - 80.8%). The third place is occupied by trade - 73.6% (in the first quarter of 2017 - 74.9%).
The general trend of volatility in the share of profitable large and medium-sized enterprises is a progressive increase in the share of profitable organizations in each industry, thanks to the quarterly cumulative total for each year. At the beginning of the next year, the share of profitable enterprises is usually lower than in the previous quarterly period. This is probably due to the peculiarities of some industry industries, where profits appear slower and do not have time to be fixed in the first reporting periods.
Figure. 2. The Autonomy Coefficient (The share of own funds in the balance sheet currency) of large and medium-sized
organizations for OKVED - 2,%. Symbols - Fig. 1. [1].
The autonomy coefficient is an indicator of the economic independence of the enterprise and is calculated by the ratio of the amount of own funds to the total amount of sources of funds of the organization, or to the total assets. In this case, the normal limit is usually set at a level greater than or equal to 50%. The higher the value of the autonomy
coefficient, the better the financial condition of the enterprise or group of enterprises of a certain type of economic activity. In general, the economy for the period from March 2017 to June 2019, the coefficient of autonomy of large and medium-sized organizations reduced: from 51% to 49% (Fig. 2). As you can see, the share of own funds in the company's balance sheet
currency should not be less than 50%.
On the other hand, this is only a conventionally accepted boundary of recommendations, from which it is undesirable to deviate too much. An incredibly high coefficient of autonomy is observed in the "State administration and military security, social security" -99% for June 2019, where it is visible and so "all their own" and there is no need to borrow. As a rule, the proximity of the coefficient to 100% usually indicates that the pace of development of the organization or industry is restrained. By refusing to raise debt capital, organizations are deprived of an additional source of financing for the growth of assets or property that could increase revenue. At the same time, this reduces all possible risks of deterioration of financial solvency in adverse circumstances [2].
A solid percentage of own funds (or a minimum of borrowing) is noticeable in "Education" (80%), in "water Supply and sanitation" (78%), in "Transportation and storage" (67%), in "Providing
electric energy, gas and steam" (66%), in "health Care" (64%), in "Mining" (64%).
There is a very low coefficient of autonomy in the "activities of hotels and catering establishments" (23%), although there are no relatively high loans in this area. In "Construction", where the coefficient of autonomy is about the same (22%), the situation is alarming, since there is a fairly high amount of overdue debt for the industry. "Manufacturing", judging by the coefficient of autonomy (36%), can be considered a venture type of economic activity, where the bet is usually made on high profitability and turnover of production.
Investors and banks that issue loans pay attention to the value of the autonomy coefficient; and, if it is much less than 50%, the probability of repayment of the organization's debts from its own funds is also very small. Therefore, such enterprises may have problems in the future with obtaining loans and loans on favorable terms for them.
2017 □ 2018 ■ 2019
Figure. 3. The level of profitability (loss) of goods, works, and services sold by large and medium-sized organizations for
OKVED-2 in January-June,%. Symbols - Fig. 1. [1].
In the economy as a whole, the level of profitability loans and loans in the future.
of goods, works, and services sold for the same com parable period (January-June) from 2017 to 2019 increases from 7.2% to 11.8% (Fig. 3). This is quite a positive fact, since many significant aggregate types of economic activity show a steady increase in profitability, which indicates the success of the industries and the ability to get the most profitable
The aggregate level of profitability of goods, products, works, and services of large and medium-sized enterprises sold is calculated using the following formula:
Rz = (Wpr / (N + Q)) * 100% (1)
Where: Rz - the level of profitability of organizations in relation to the cost of production of
goods sold, products, works, services; Wpr - profit from sales of goods sold, works, services; N - cost of goods sold, works, services; Q - commercial and management expenses [5].
As earlier in the economic history of Russia, the leading sector of the economy continues is "Mining", where the level of profitability in January-June 2019 reaches 33.0%, while in January-June 2017 it was fixed at the level of 25.9%. The relatively high level of profitability of large and medium-sized organizations and its growth can be noted in agriculture - 20.2%. "Administrative activities and related additional services" are also ahead in terms of profitability and its increase - 16.5% for January-June 2019 (9.6% in January-June 2017). This successful type of economic activity includes the rental and leasing of vehicles, machinery and equipment, which are now showing great economic promise.
During the period under review, the level of
profitability (loss making) of goods, works, and services sold for "information and communication Activities" has slightly decreased: to 13.6% from 14.8%. Even this type of economic activity, such as "Activities in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment" ceases to be unprofitable and reaches a positive level of profitability of 6.6%.
As always, "Water supply; water disposal, waste collection and disposal, and actions to eliminate pollution" is the lowest-profitable sector in the Russian economy in January - June 2019 - 1.9%.
For us, the most important question is whether there is a relationship between the coefficient of autonomy and the level of profitability (loss) of goods, works, and services sold by large and medium-sized enterprises. To begin with, it is possible to investigate the presence of such an interaction using the data as a whole, although this will be too average a result.
Figure. 4. Influence of the autonomy coefficient of large and medium-sized organizations on the level of profitability of goods, works, and services sold under OKVED - 2 in 2017-2019. Symbols - Fig. 1.
Figure. 5. Current liquidity ratio of large and medium-sized
January-June 2017-2019;
The current liquidity ratio, which is also called the "coverage ratio", with a normal limit of 200%, is the ratio of the amount of working capital to short-term liabilities of the enterprise and shows the ability of enterprises in the industry or region to repay current (short-term) liabilities at the expense of current assets only. In general, the current liquidity ratio in Russia is relatively low and reflects the growth trend from 149.1% to 152.7%. This means, first of all, the fact that the economic activity of large and medium-sized economic entities of the state is growing with a slower increase in the short-term debt load.
At the same time, the indicator "total by type of economic activity" represents a certain average value for the entire economy and tends to grow. Sharply different and abrupt changes in the coverage ratio for mainly non-commercial and unitary activities are precisely the reasons for this in the institutional features of such industries. These are "Public administration and military security, social security" (a jump from 123.5% to 299.3%), education (an increase in the coefficient from 256.7% to 275.2%), and health care (an increase above the acceptable level from 166.9% to 200.3%). It should be taken into account that the coefficient value of more than 300% indicates an irrational capital structure of enterprises in the industry [2].
Too low current liquidity ratio also does not bear
enterprises and organizations by type of economic activity in %. Symbols - Fig. 1. [1].
positive trends. This is the case, for example, in
construction (down from 126.1% to 121.9%), in
"Providing electricity, gas and steam" (down from
132.0% to 126.6%). This is most likely to indicate a
general decrease in the amount of working capital in
the industry, i.e., economic and production activity.
In general, there are slightly different opinions about acceptable values of the current liquidity ratio. Thus, in accounting manuals distributed on the Internet, the value of the coefficient 150-250% is considered normal [2]. The teaching staff of CEMI RAS is of the opinion that less than 160-200% coverage ratio already warns investors about unattractive and risky investments in such segments
[4].
Thus, we got an idea of the quantitative dynamics of large and medium-sized enterprises and organizations and some analytical data on their financial condition, including the debt load and credit potential in the industry context. Large and medium-sized organizations are the dominant component of the entire Russian economy, which determines the main development trends. The predominant number of industries are characterized by positive results that contribute to economic growth in the state as a whole.
This article can also be useful as a historical document in the future, in which some of the exact facts of macroeconomics are photographed. The work
mainly uses aggregated statistical data, and there is no in-depth reflection on the spirit and endogenous structure of the organization. Even the actual functional definition of the organization is not presented, but only the criteria of their dimension are given. However, it can be stated that even Karl Marx himself could not provide this definition: "Although Karl Marx did not give a formal definition of organizations, his analysis of the social order contains much that relates to organizations. The key concept of Marx is practice, or practical human activity" [6]. This idea was also borrowed by the author in his remarkable book on organizations of states with established markets [3].
In the future, it is worth thinking about the ideas of R. H. Hall about an individualistic approach to the
consideration of organizations, in which "factors such as profitability, productivity and productiveness are necessary conditions for survival, and are not the goals themselves."[6].
References:
[1] The data of Rosstat - www.gks.ru
[2] Materials Online. Financial analysis. www.1-fin.ru
[3] Heydebrand Golf V. Comparative Organizations: The Results of Empirical Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1973.
[4] Vilensky P. L., Livshits V. N., Smolyak S. A. Evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects: Theory and practice: A textbook. - 5 th ed., pererab. and additional-M.: Poly Print Service, 2015. - 1300 p.
[5] Narinyan N. E. Impact of small and medium-sized business results on macroeconomics-Moscow: Vestnik tsemi, issue 3, 2019.
[6] Hall. R. H. Organizations: structures, processes, and results. -St. Petersburg: Peter, 2001. - 512 p.
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