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ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ МЕЖДУ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМ РОСТОМ И КАЧЕСТВОМ ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫ В ПРОВИНЦИИ ХУБЭЙ (КНР)
THE RESEARCH OF HUBEI PROVINCE (CHINA) ECONOMY GROUTH INFLUENCE ON ENVIRONMENT QUALITY
JIo Цзуань / Luo Juan Уханьский текстильный университет (КНР)
В статье, основанной на теории экологической кривой Кузнеца (ЭКК), в качестве объекта исследования выбрана провинция Хубэй; осуществлен анализ влияния экономического развития на состояние окружающей среды с использованием экономических данных по провинции Хубэй за 2000 - 2011 г.г. Анализ показывает, что индексы зависимости качества окружающей среды от уровня экономического развития в провинции Хубэй имеют разное выражение. Так, тенденция зависимости сбросов сточных вод от уровня экономического развития имеет U-образную форму; экологическая кривая Кузнеца, выражающая уровень отработанного газа, имеет N-образную форму; количество твердых бытовых отходов увеличивается линейно с увеличением показателя объема ВРП на душу населения. Качество окружающей среды не улучшается с увеличением уровня доходов. Одновременно с быстрым ростом экономики провинции Хубэй происходит ухудшение состояния окружающей среды. Для того чтобы достигнуть гармонизации и устойчивого развития окружающей среды необходимо усилить политику в сфере защиты окружающей среды и обратиться в сторону циркулярной экономики.
Ключевые слова: провинция Хубэй, экономический рост, качество окружающей среды, экологическая кривая Кузнеца.
1. Introduction.
Kuznets curve is used to analyze the relationship between the level of per capita income and distributive justice degree and is offered by economist Simon Kuznets, the 1950s Nobel laureate. This research shows that income inequality first escalate and then decrease with the economic growth, it is an inverted "U" curve relationship. In 1991 Americans worried about the fact that free trade would deteriorate Mexico environment and affect on the United States status at NAFTA negotiations. The U.S. economists Grossman and Krueger first studied the influence of per capita income on environmental quality and pointed out that there was the same interrelation between pollution and per capita income .The pollution increased with GDP rising in the low income levels, and declined with GDP rising in the high income levels. In 1993 Panayotou defined interrelation between environment quality and per capita income as
Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for the first time [1; 2]. The EKC reveals when the quality of the environment begins to degrade with revenue increase; when income levels rise to a certain extent the environmental quality will be improved when revenue increase .The interrelation between income and environment shows an inverted "U" shape.
2. The development of economy and environment quality in Hubei Province.
2.1. The development of Hubei Province economy.
Hubei Province is located in the center of China, the total area is 186000 square kilometers, and the total population is about 57 million. The transportation and communication are very convenient here. Wuhan City is the capital of Hubei Province and is the center of high-speed railway. Hubei Province is rich in natural resources. Changjiang River which is the world's third largest rivers is here. Hubei Province is one of China's important industrial and agricultural
bases. Industry has formed eight pillars including automobile, metallurgy, machinery, electric power, chemical, electronic information, textile, building materials industries. Hubei Province is one of China's major grain producing areas. The high level of scientific research and production capacity of photoelectron information, new materials, bioengineering and new medicine, aerospace, laser and computer software development and other high-tech fields have certain advantages [3; 4].
Hubei Province has good development opportunity. The province's GDP in 2011 reached 1.963226 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.2 %. The per capita GDP of Hubei province was 34,232.99 yuan in 2011.
(1) Economy Scale. Hubei Province GDP was in the process of rising as a whole from 2000 to 2011 and changed from 427.632 billion yuan in 2000 to 19632.26 billion yuan in 2011. The per capita GDP changed from 6293.41 yuan in 2000 to 34,232.99 yuan in 2011 and reached about $5294.68 especially in 2009.Theory and experience shows that the per capita GDP exceeded $ 3,000 is the "watershed" between traditional society and modem society which marked the economy enter a new stage of development.
(2) Industrial Structure Changes. The value of primary, secondary and tertiary industry was respectively 256.93 billion yuan, 981.876 billion yuan and 853.804 billion yuan in 2011. The increasing rate was respectively 4.4 %, 17.9 % and 19.1 %. The proportion of three industrial structures was 18.7:40.5:40.8 in 2000. And it became 13.1:50.0:36.9 in 2011. Three industrial structure had undergone a major change. At the beginning of 2004 the second industry further accelerated the share of GDP over the tertiary industry, the evolution of industrial structure was from "321" to "231".
(3) Industry Changes. Hubei Province industrial GDP was 124.324 billion yuan in 2000 and 853.804 billion yuan in 2011. The proportion which industrial added value accounted for the region's GDP called industrialization rate, an important indicator for industrialization degree measuring. Hubei Province industrialization lev-
el was 35.1 % in 2000 and 43.5 % in 2011. Due to historical reasons the industrial structure of Hubei was major in industry for a long time. Since the reform and opening up light and heavy industrial structure was adjusted but the heavy industrial characteristics were still evident. The proportion of light and heavy industry structure was 38.8:61.2 in 2000 and became 33.6:66.4 in 2011.
2.2. Hubei Province environment quality.
At the beginning of industrialization
economic development industrial model in Hubei was basically found on the resource-based, high material consumption, high energy consumption, heavy pollution and heavy chemical industry. The extensive mode of industrial production caused high consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution. Industrial waste water emissions were respectively 1.067 billion tons in 2000 and 1.044 billion tons in 2011. The industrial waste gas emissions were 567.4 billion cubic meters in 2000 and 2.284 trillion cubic meters in 2011. The amount of industrial solid waste production achieved 28,178,000 tons in 2000 and 75,957,900 tons in 2011. Looking at the situation from 2000 to 2011 industrial emissions and industrial solid waste amount was at rapid growth to the emissions of industrial waste. Meanwhile, as a water-rich province, Hubei also inevitably faced a serious problem of water pollution.
3. Research methods.
3.1. Indices selection and data source.
In order to make model we need economic and environmental indicators as research and analysis objects selection. In this article we focus on the dynamic interrelations between major industrial pollutant emissions and economic development, so we select industrial waste water, industrial waste gas and industrial solid waste data. Real GDP per capita is selected as economic indicator. All data are from Hubei Province Statistical Yearbook over the period of time from 2000 to 2011.
3.2. Model selection.
There are three kinds of EKC models of environmental pollution and economic growth interrelations:
(1) Linear equation: y = Po + Ax + e >
(2) Quadratic equation:
y = P0 +pxx + pxx2 +£;
(3) Cubic equation:
y = p0 +PxX + P2X2 + P3X3 + £ .
Here: y is environmental index; x -GDP per captia;e- error term; /?,, /?2,p, -estimating parameter.
yj - water waste emissions; y2 - gas waste emissions; y3 - solid waste emissions.
In order to remove data heterscedastic-ity we take the logarithm for j',, y2, y3 and use lnj-’j, In y 2 ,ln y 3 for equation model.
As the model estimation results will appear one of seven following kinds:
© Pl = P2 = p, = 0, which shows that economic growth and environmental indicators have no relation, and the graph is a horizontal straight line;
© p2 = pi = 0 , Px > 0, which shows the
economic growth and environment have positive correlation, and it is on the rising stage to inverted "U " type curve;
© p2 = P3 = 0 , px < 0, the economic
growth and environment have negative correlation , and it is on the decline stage to inverted "U" type curve;
© Px > 0,P2 < 0, p, = 0, inverted "U" curve interrelation;
© P1 < 0,p2 >0,P3 = 0, "U" curve interrelation;
©Px > 0,P2 < 0,/?3 >0, "N" curve interrelation;
® px <0,P2 > 0, P^ < 0, inverted " N "
curve interrelation.
3.3. Modeling and analysis.
3.3.1. At first, we give Hubei Province real GDP per capita and three types of industrial waste graph from 2000 to 2011:
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200S 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1. Real GDP per capita of Hubei Province from 2000 to 2011 (Unit of measurement: yuan)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Waste water Waste gas Solid waste
Graph 2. Three industrial waste of Hubei Province from 2000 to 2011 (Unit of measurement : waste water (million tons); waste gas (million standard cubic meters); solid waste (million tons))
From the graph 1 and graph 2 we can see that: (1) economic development of Hu-
bei Province maintains high growth and small fluctuation rates; (2) solid waste discharge experiences a period of slow growth, the growth increases rapidly since 2008, but its long-term growth rate is significantly lower than of industrial waste gas emission;
(3) waste gas emissions grow rapidly since 2009; (4) industrial waste water discharge amount is more volatile, first it began to re-
duce year by year from 2000 to 2007, and then began to grow gradually in recent years.
3.3.2. For more careful Hubei Province economy growth and environmental quality research we use Eviews 6.0 software to analyze economic and environment indicators and get three modeling results [5].
Table 1
Variables Model R2 R2 F P
lnx and lnyj (1) 0.070257 -0.022717 0.755663 0.405071
(2) 0.815851 0.774929 19.93674 0.000493
(3) 0.836028 0.774538 13.59625 0.001658
lnx and lnyj (1) 0.907156 0.897872 97.70795 0.000000
(2) 0.908582 0.888267 44.72444 0.000000
(3) 0.965130 0.952054 73.80828 0.000000
lnx and lnyj (1) 0.907156 0.897872 97.70795 0.000000
(2) 0.908582 0.888267 44.72444 0.000000
(3) 0.965130 0.952054 73.80828 0.000000
From Table 1, it can be seen: for the emissions of waste water we choose model
(2); for the emissions of waste gas we choose model (3); for the emissions of solid
waste we choose model (l).Then we get Graphs 3, 4, 5 and Models (I), (II), (III).
11.6
11.4
8.5
9.5
10
10.5
11
Inx
Graph 3. 1пУ1 = 27.58-3.361nx +0.174(lnx)2 (I)
8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11
Graph4. lny2 =-705.49 + 223.691nx-23.36(lnx)2 +0.81(lnx)3 (□)
8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11
I ПХ
Graphs. lny3 = 2.55 + 0.611nx (III)
For the model (I) is the situation ©:/?j < 0,/?2 > 0,/?3 = 0: the relations between lnxand lnyj is "U" curve. When income levels is low, the discharge of industrial waste water reduces with income rising; when income is at high levels waste water pollution becomes serious with income rising.
For the model (II) is the situation ©: J3X > 0,/?2 < 0,/?3 > 0: the relations between lnxand lny2 is "N" curve. When income level rises ceaselessly environment quality is worse firstly, then it improves and becomes worse again.
For the model (III) is the situation ©: A > 0 , /32 = /?3 = 0 : lnxand lny3 has a
monotonically increasing relation, environment becomes worse with income rising.
4. Conclusion.
Kuznets curve of three industrial wastes in Hubei Province shows different curve shapes, and it is not consistent with the traditional inverted "U" shape.
The curve of industrial water emissions and GDP per capita shows that industrial water emissions first decrease, then rise. Hubei Province doesn't maintain good water quality; water environment is facing an adverse development. Hubei Province has abundant water resources, so it provides a unique conditions for self-purification of waste water, but it also makes enterprise awareness of water sources protection relatively weak. Many enterprises want only to discharge industrial waste water exacerbat-
ing the pressure on the environment. In addition to all Hubei Province is also an old industry base; economic development is characterized mainly by high input, high consumption and low efficiency. These circumstances increase Hubei Province pollution.
The industrial waste gas curve shows "N" shape; with the per capita income level increases emissions firstly increases and then decreases gradually. It is still in the ascent. Pollution of industrial solid wastes is at the rising stage of EKC and not yet reached a turning point.
According to the economic and environment indicators of Hubei Province from 2000 to 2011 environmental pollution in Hubei Province is still serious; the importance and urgency of environmental protection become increasingly prominent. In order to promote the coordinated development of the economy and the environment of Hubei Province we suggest the following:
(1) Government should speed up the adjustment of industrial structure in Hubei Province and establish the industrial system for circular economy.
(2) Government should increase investment in environmental protection funds,
recommend new technologies of pollution control and improve the utilization of industrial waste.
(3) Government should strengthen the pollution supervision and improve scientific and effective supervision system. According to industry characteristics government must develop the corresponding discharge index and make periodic inspections.
REFERENCES
1. David I. Stem. The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve [J],World Developments, 2004, (8).
2. Gene M G, Alan B K. Economic Growth and the Environment [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(6).
3. Xiao Lazhen, Xiang Xiaoxiang. The Study of EKC Relationship between Economy Growth and Environment Quality of Hubei Province [J], Statistics and Decision, 2010, (4).
4. Li Dongxia, Yang Yujie. The Study of Relationship between Economy Growth and Environment Quality of Hubei Province for 20 Years [J], Journal of Xiao-Gan University, 2011, (5).
5. Gao Tiemei. Econometric Analysis and Modeling-Eviews Application and Example[M], Bei-jing:Tsinghua University Press. 2006.
Рукопись поступала в редакцию 30.12.2012.
THE RESEARCH OF HUBEI PROVINCE (CHINA) ECONOMY GROUTH INFLUENCE ON ENVIRONMENT QUALITY
Lao Juan
In the article, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, Hubei province (China) as the research object is pointed out; economic measuring analysis of economic development influence on environment quality on the basis of Hubei province economic data from 2000 to 2011 is carried out. Analysis shows that the environmental influence indexes of Hubei province have different expressions. The dependence trend of waste water emissions and level of economic development have the "U" shape; the EKC of exhaust gas has "N" shape development trend, solid waste increases with the GDP per capita rate increase. The environmental quality is not improved as income level increased. When Hubei Province economy is in rapid growth, at the same time the environment is in deterioration state. In order to achieve coordination and sustainable development of environment and economy in Hubei Province we must intensify environmental protection and turn to circular economy.
Key words: Hubei Province; economic growth; environmental quality; Environmental Kuznets Curve.
