Научная статья на тему 'IRAN-SAUDI RECONCILIATION: IMPACT ON THE SITUATION IN THE REGION'

IRAN-SAUDI RECONCILIATION: IMPACT ON THE SITUATION IN THE REGION Текст научной статьи по специальности «Политологические науки»

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Saudi Arabia / Iran / diplomatic relations / Arab-Israeli conflict

Аннотация научной статьи по политологическим наукам, автор научной работы — Vladimir Kirichenko

The article reveals the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. Diplomatic relations were interrupted in 2016 after the destruction of Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran by protesters against the execution of the famous Shiite theologian Nimr al-Nimr in the kingdom. Also, a significant part of the article is devoted to the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which began on October 7, 2023. The reaction of the main regional actors to this event is considered.

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Текст научной работы на тему «IRAN-SAUDI RECONCILIATION: IMPACT ON THE SITUATION IN THE REGION»

22. Unay H. Sirnrsiz Dunyadan Duvarli Dunyaya: Goge Kar§i In§a Edilen Sinir Duvarlari Uzerine Turkiye Merkezli Bir Degerlendirme, Insan Hareketliligi Uluslararasi Dergisi, 2 (1), 2022, P. 10-37.

23. Lesthaeghe R. The Second Demographic Transition: A Concise Overview of Its Development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(51), 2014, P. 18112-18115. - URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420441111.

24. Borjas G. J. Assimilation and Changes In Cohort Quality Revisited: What Happened To Immigrant Earnings In the 1980s. Journal of Labor Economics, 13(2),1995, P. 201-245. https://doi.org/10.1086/298373.

Received: 11.12.2023. Accepted for publication: 28.12.2023.

VLADIMIR KIRICHENKO. IRAN-SAUDI RECONCILIATION: IMPACT ON THE SITUATION IN THE REGION

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Iran; diplomatic relations; Arab-Israeli conflict.

Vladimir Kirichenko,

Research Associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS, e-mail: [email protected] © V. Kirichenko 2024

Citation: Kirichenko V. Iran-Saudi Reconciliation: Impact on the Situation in the Region // Russia and the Moslem World, 2024, № 3 (325), P. 75-89. DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2024.03.06

Abstract. The article reveals the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. Diplomatic relations were interrupted in 2016 after the destruction of Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran by protesters against the execution of the famous Shiite theologian Nimr al-Nimr in the kingdom. Also, a significant part of the article is devoted to the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which began on October 7, 2023. The reaction of the main regional actors to this event is considered.

The relations of such major regional players as Iran and Saudi Arabia impact on the situation in the Middle East.

In March 2023, representatives of Iran and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on the renewal of diplomatic relations. Due to the fact that China actively assisted in establishing contacts between the countries, the agreement was signed in Beijing after lengthy negotiations.

Diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh were interrupted in 2016 after protesters who were against the execution of the famous Shiite theologian Nimr al-Nimr in the kingdom destroyed Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. However, 6 years later, in an interview with Atlantic in September 2022, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that it is necessary to build relations with Iran as with a neighboring country [Iranian Foreign Ministers..., 2023]. In June 2023, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal ibn Farhan Al Saud visited Tehran, where the parties discussed the normalization of relations [Turak, 2023]. Describing progress in relieving tensions between Riyadh and Tehran brokered by China during his visit to the Saudi capital, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian declared during a joint press conference with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan: "Relations between Tehran and Saudi Arabia are on the right track and we are witnesses of progress," and also called the negotiations successful.

In Damascus, these agreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia were called an important step towards strengthening security and stability in the Middle East [Kogalov, 12.03.2023]. It should be noted that even at the summit in May 2023, Saudi Arabia advocated the return of Syria, a key ally of Iran, to the Arab League [Iran's foreign..., 2023].

One of the consequences of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was the exchange of prisoners (March 2023) between Houthi rebels*, with ties to Iran and the Yemeni

* Houthis - the group is named after its founder and former leader Hussein al-Husi, (1960-2004), adherents of the Zeidite branch of Shiite Islam.

government, which enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia. The exchange was long hope, especially as many prisoners reported being abused and tortured by Houthi rebels [Matsko, 2023].

Lebanon's Hezbollah expressed satisfaction that the agreement, in their view, ended Iran's international isolation and Saudi Arabia's seemingly unwavering commitment to US policy.

Lebanon's acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and Migration, Abdallah Bou Habib, said that "the trilateral Iran-China-Saudi statement and the agreement of Tehran and Riyadh to resume diplomatic relations will have a stabilizing effect on the entire course of events in the region," adding that "this step gives great hope for a way out of the crisis for Lebanon, which throughout its history has been a victim of regional disputes and cruelly paid for them" [Kogalov, 12.03.2023]. Hence Tehran and Riyadh intensified diplomatic contacts, exchanged views on current events in the Middle East, and coordinated their actions to support other Arab states.

On October 7, 2023, members of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) attacked Israel. After that, the Israeli army began shelling the Gaza Strip, which led to civilian casualties [WP: Saudi prince..., 2023].

On the same day, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia called the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict unprecedented and called on the parties to de-escalate and protect civilians [In Saudi Arabia..., 2023]. In turn, the Iranian government called the Palestinian attack on Israel "a powerful response to criminal actions" [Iran supported..., 2023].

On October 12, 2023, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held a telephone conversation, the topic of which was the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In particular, Raisi and bin Salman discussed "the ongoing military escalation in the Gaza

In 2004, the Houthis revolted against the Yemeni government. In 2011, they took an active part in the events of the Arab Spring. In 2015, they managed to capture the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, and actually assert their power in Yemen.

Strip" [Western News..., 2023]. The prince noted that Saudi Arabia is making "maximum efforts to interact with all international and regional parties" to stop the war [Western news..., 2023].

Bin Salman stressed that Riyadh will defend the "Palestinian issue" in order to achieve "a comprehensive and just peace that guarantees the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people" [Western news..., 2023]. Both the crown prince and the president of Iran said that "the crimes of the Israeli regime and the green light of the United States for atrocities can lead to destructive instability" [Prince of Saudi..., 2023].

It is revealing that at the meeting of US Secretary of State Blinken in Riyadh with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, held on October 15, 2023, the Secretary of State emphasized the problem of Israeli hostages, and the Saudi party, in turn, drew attention to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza [Bhadrakumar, 2023]. At the same time, according to The Washington Post, the crown prince made Blinken wait several hours for a meeting, which was supposed to take place in the evening of October 14, but bin Salman did not appear on it until the next morning [media: Saudi prince..., 2023].

On October 12, 2023, Israel attacked the airports of Damascus and Aleppo, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported. Both airports came out of action [Israel inflicted..., 2023]. It is worth believing that the strikes were carried out due to Israel's fears about arms supplies to Syria from Iran. On October 14, 2023, Saudi Arabia suspended negotiations on the normalization of relations with Israel amid its war with Hamas. This was a blow for the United States, since it was they who promoted the Kingdom's peace treaty with Israel [AFP learned..., 2023].

Perhaps one of the reasons that prompted Hamas and Islamic Jihad (an organization banned in the Russian Federation) to attack Israel on October 7, 2023, was the desire to crumb the deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. These groups want relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize solely assuming the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is believed

that it was this circumstance that prompted the radical Palestinians led by Hamas to launch such a desperate attack on Israel [Hamas..., 2023].

On October 15, 2023, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with the political leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas Ismail Haniya in the capital of Qatar, Doha. Following the meeting, Hamas representatives said that Abdollahian and Haniya "confirmed the continuation of cooperation to achieve the goals of resistance of the Palestinian people" [Iranian Foreign Minister..., 2023].

On October 17, a terrible tragedy occurred in Gaza, when 471 people died as a result of a missile blow against a hospital. In Israel, they claim that the rocket was Palestinian, and in Palestine -that it was Israeli. The opinions of the international community are divided. For example, US President Biden supported the Israeli version. Russian military experts (General E.P. Buzhinsky) believe that Hamas did not have such missiles. The Russian Foreign Ministry demanded satellite images from Israel, proving that the rocket didn't belong to it. Moscow considered the incident proof that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas should be stopped immediately [Belenkaya, 2023].

The authorities of several countries, such as Turkiye, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, condemned the strike on the hospital and blamed Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed the hope that "the international community, especially the UN and the Security Council, will fulfill their obligations to investigate quickly the scale of this war crime and bring criminals to justice" [Kogalov, 18.10.2023].

•k^c-k

After the aggravation of the situation between Israel and Palestine, Hezbollah fired at the border areas of Israel, and Israel attacked southern Lebanon. In mid-October 2023, the Yemeni Houthis also announced their readiness to take the side of the

Palestinians. In the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other cities of the country, mass demonstrations were held in support of the Palestinians, which were organized by the Houthis [Yemeni Houthis announced..., 2023].

On November 3, 2023, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in his first speech since the war began said that a broader regional escalation could not be ruled out if Israel continued its war in Gaza. In his lengthy speech, Nasrallah said that "all scenarios are open on our Lebanese southern front" and that "the situation on the Lebanese front will depend on what happens in Gaza," urging Israel to stop its attacks on the besieged sector to avoid a regional conflagration.

Nasrallah said Hamas' attack on October 7, 2023 on southern Israel was "100 per cent Palestinian" and expressed support for the Palestinian group, but didn't declare all-out war on Israel as many feared [All scenarios..., 2023]. Such a restrained position can be explained by the reluctance of the Hezbollah leader to lure Lebanon into large-scale hostilities, which could be a disaster for the country. Meanwhile, the exchange of strikes between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in areas bordering Israel continues.

November 12, 2023 was the most difficult day on the border of Lebanon and Israel since the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Intense clashes were observed between the IDF and the Lebanese Hezbollah near the settlement of Mays al-Jabal (Lebanon). Hezbollah representatives carried out a series of attacks and mortars from MLRS on IDF positions, after which the Israelis responded with incendiary ammunition.

In November 2023, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said that "a full-fledged war is already underway on the country's northern border." He also threatened Hezbollah with an attack on Beirut [Intensity is growing..., 2023].

In December 2023, Israel inflicted a blow on the roof of a house next to the funeral of a Hezbollah member in the southern Lebanese city of Aita al-Chaab. [Israeli Strike..., 2023]. On January 2,

Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Aruri was killed in an Israeli strike on a suburb of Beirut. Al-Aruri was deputy head of Hamas' political bureau and one of the founders of the armed wing of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, part of Hamas [Who was..., 2024].

Saudi Arabia's armed forces went on increased readiness state after unsurvivable clashes with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who also tried to fire a missile over the kingdom toward Israel, according to people familiar with the matter.

At the end of October 2023, four Saudi soldiers were killed in a battle with Houthi forces in the mountainous southwestern province of Jazan on Yemen's border. The incident occurred against the background of the exacerbation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The death of the Saudis is the first known loss of the country's armed forces since a preliminary ceasefire with the Houthis that was reached in April 2022. The world's largest oil exporter tried to negotiate an end to the war with the Houthis, which began in 2015.

Earlier, the Saudi defense forces intercepted a missile in Saudi Arabia launched by the Houthis towards Israel [Dagher, 2023].

On November 11, 2023, a joint Summit of the League of Arab States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation were held on the situation in the Gaza Strip. In opening remarks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for an immediate end to military operations in Gaza and the release of all prisoners [WP: Saudi..., 2023].

"This is a humanitarian disaster that proved the failure of the international community and the UN Security Council to end Israel's outrage of international humanitarian law and prove the double standards accepted by the world." - said the Crown Prince [Saudi Crown Prince..., 2023]. According to the Crown Prince, the only way to achieve peace in the region is to "end the Israeli occupation and illegal settlements, restore the established rights of the Palestinian people and create a 1967 state with East Jerusalem as its capital" [Saudi Crown Prince..., 2023].

On October 22, 2023, the American base Ain al-Assad, located in Syria, was attacked by Shiite armed groups belonging

to the Islamic Resistance of Iraq. The base was subjected to missile strikes.

Earlier, on October 19 and 20, the Ain al-Assad base had already been attacked by drones launched by Shiite groups. Also in October 2023, UAV attacks on the Harir military airfield in the vicinity of the administrative center of Erbil (Iraq) and on the American base Camp Victoria (the area of Baghdad International Airport) were defeated. At the same time, representatives of Shiite formations made a statement that "American troops must immediately leave the region, otherwise their bases will be constantly attacked" [media: they inflicted in Iraq..., 2023].

Therefore, in November 2023, the US Army inflicted a defeat on two targets of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and pro-Iranian groups in eastern Syria [Otradnov, 2023]. After that, when hitting the US base "Koniko" in Syria, the American military was killed. Also, three drones attacked the Al-Shaddadi base in the province of Hasaka in northeastern Syria. Shiite groups claimed responsibility for the attacks [media: during attack..., 2023].

On October 19, 2023, Yemen-based Houthi rebels announced that they had taken control of a cargo ship in the Red Sea en route to India, proposedly belonging to an Israeli businessman. Israeli media described the ship as British-owned and Japanese-operated, with no Israeli citizens on board. However, the ship's owners are associated with Ray Car Carriers, which was founded by Israeli businessman Abraham Ungar [Houthi Rebels..., 2023]. It concerns the cargo ship Galaxy Leader with a crew of 22 people on board [Houthis decided..., 2023].

Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarie explained that the operation was in response to ongoing human rights violations committed by the Israeli occupying forces against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and called on the international community to end Israeli aggression against Gaza.

Houthi rebels have carried out operations since October 7 not for the first time. Over the past month and a half, the group

has launched several missile strikes and drone operations against Israeli targets.

Their involvement was also acknowledged by Hezbollah's regional ally Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in a speech he delivered on November 3, 2023, where he praised the Houthis for their support of the Palestinian resistance.

The Houthis announced that they planned to attack any ship belonging to Israel or its supporters in the Red Sea, and confirmed the continuation of their operations until the Israeli aggression in Gaza and the West Bank stopped [Houthi Rebels... , 2023]. Houthi attacks led to the fact that the traffic of ships through the Suez Canal decreased by at least 30 per cent [Due to Houthi attacks..., 2023]. In addition, the revenues of the Israeli port of Eilat fell by 80 per cent for a month. Israel's economy has suffered from Houthi attacks. Also, the situation in the region affects the prices for transportation from Asia to the Mediterranean. Due to fears of attacks, shipping companies do not use the route through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but prefer to put ships around Africa. As a result, Israeli shipping customers have to wait longer for delivery and pay $50 extra for 20-foot containers and $100 for 40 and 45-foot ones [Still Ahead..., 2023].

In December 2023, the container ship Maersk Gibraltar was attacked by the Houthis. The attack was carried out using a drone. The Houthis said they would continue to impede the movement of ships to Israel until it lifted the blockade of the Gaza Strip [Yemen's Houthis said..., 2023]. Later it became known that the United States are considering the issue of possible strikes on groups in order to secure shipping in the Red Sea [USA with allies..., 2023].

On December 19, the United States announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guard in the Red Sea. Its goal is to protect the water area from Houthi attacks on merchant ships [the United States announced..., 2023].

On December 31, the Maersk Hangzhou ship was subjected to another Houthi attack. After that, American helicopters sank

three rebel boats, killing several of their crew members. The fourth boat managed to get away [US army attacks..., 2023].

•k^c-k

From November 24, 2023 to December 1, 2023, a truce was in effect between Israel and Hamas. Due to this, it was possible to exchange over 200 hostages and prisoners. The truce expired on December 1 at 8:00 Moscow time. After that, the IDF announced the continuation of fighting in the Gaza Strip. The truce was extended twice - on November 27 and 29.

•k^c-k

After the expiration of the official truce, the parties did not announce its extension. At 8:06, the Israel Defense Forces announced the resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip, accusing Hamas of violating the ceasefire [Israel resumed..., 2023]. The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East contributed to the strengthening of defense ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. On November 30, 2023, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, in a telephone conversation with the Minister of Defense of Saudi Arabia, Prince Khalid bin Salman, said that the country's Armed Forces were fully ready to develop military ties with Saudi Arabia [Iran fully..., 2023].

•k^c-k

On December 6, 2023, Russian President V. Putin met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Riyadh. During the event, cooperation in trade, economic and investment spheres, as well as interaction in multilateral formats were discussed. The parties also discussed the prospects for the North-South International Transport Corridor. Following the meeting, Prince Salman said that the positions of Russia and Saudi Arabia

coincide, including in terms of an approach to solving a number of international problems, for example, in the Gaza Strip. The prince agrees that Israel must immediately stop bombing the Palestinian territories [Saudi Prince Al-Faisal..., 2023].

It is noteworthy that on December 7, 2023, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi visited Moscow and met with the President of the Russian Federation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian noted on his social networks that the talks between the presidents also affected the situation in Palestine. The minister wrote on social networks that: "The parties during the conversation emphasized the need for an early cessation of hostilities, an end to the massacres of civilians in the Gaza Strip and its suburbs, an end to the forced resettlement of civilians under the guise of" evacuation "and the immediate opening of a humanitarian corridor through the Rafah point, for the unopposed delivery of a large consignment of humanitarian aid throughout Gaza" [What became most important..., 2023].

On December 25, 2023, during an Israeli airstrike in southern Syria, General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Sayed Razi Mousavi [Hezbollah is called... , 2023] was killed. He was a senior military adviser to the IRGC in Syria. After this event, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that the Israeli regime would definitely pay back for the criminal act of killing the general [Raeisi: Israel will..., 2023].

In conclusion, it should be noted that the intensification of Iranian-Saudi contacts could become the beginning of stabilization of the situation in the region, but a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict significantly complicated the situation in the region. It is worth noting that Muslim states, despite solidarity with the Palestinians, are in no hurry to get involved in a large-scale conflict with Israel and the United States.

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Received: 09.01.2024. Accepted for publication: 24.01.2024.

OLGA BIBIKOVA. THE SITUATION OF PALESTINIAN REFUGEES LIVING IN ARAB COUNTRIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST (Part 1)

Keywords: Palestinians; refugee camps; UNRWA; HAMAS; problems of adaptation and identity.

Olga Bibikova,

PhD(Hist.), Senior Research Associate, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, INION RAN

e-mail: [email protected]

Citation: Bibikova O. The Situation of Palestinian Refugees Living in Arab Countries of the Middle East (Part 1) //

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