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МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ НАУЧНЫЙ ЖУРНАЛ «СИМВОЛ НАУКИ» №11-1/2016 ISSN 2410-700Х
Контроллинг в современной экономической теории и практике сложное синтезированное понятие -это не только контроль, но и управление через согласование целей. Поэтому контроллинг следует понимать как подсистему управления производственно-хозяйственной деятельностью, осуществляемую на основе соблюдения установленных отраслевых положений, стандартов и нормативов, постоянного регулирования и мониторинга деятельности на каждом уровне управления (руководства), представляющем собой общее поле взаимодействия контроллинговых систем.
Для того, чтобы полнее использовать имеющиеся возможности и своевременно реагировать на появляющиеся негативные тенденции, необходимо построить систему раннего обнаружения отклонений от предполагаемого развития событий. Это необходимо для определения специфических для каждого предприятия ключевых факторов и индикаторов системы. На первой стадии целесообразно ограничиваться определением проблемных ситуаций и целевых показателей, а также поиском важнейших факторов, оказывающих на них влияние. Цель данного этапа - расчет доминирующих зависимостей, в наиболее значительной степени определяющих развитие событий в рамках общей проблемной ситуации. В экономическом аспекте это означает анализ учета затрат по функциям и процессам или учет процессуальных издержек, который позволяет разрабатывать и осуществлять проекты по сокращению уровня затрат и производить противодействующее их росту планирование.
Эффективность методологии контроллинга напрямую зависит от организации внутреннего контроля как технического, так и финансового, осуществляемого на всех уровнях управления. Поэтому осуществление контроллинга производственно-хозяйственной деятельности предполагает одновременное действие комплекса контроллинговых систем, основывающихся на результатах внутреннего аудита по направлениям: финансового, технического, сбытовой и инвестиционной деятельности, охраны труда.
Типичный вопрос, который должен постоянно стоять при осуществлении контроллинга производственно-хозяйственной деятельности: «Как дело пойдет дальше?» Решение задачи, следовательно, заключается не в том, почему произошло ухудшение или почему возросли расходы, вопрос стоит так: «Можно ли достигнуть цели и какие средства для этого необходимы? Можно ли последовательно провести намеченные мероприятия? Может стоит подкорректировать курс? Кто в этом поможет? Сможет ли обойтись запланированное дешевле, чем думали раньше?»
Ответы на эти вопросы могут быть получены только после тщательного исследования тех или иных направлений производственно-хозяйственной деятельности конкретного предприятия или акционерного общество в целом. Это предполагает контроль состояния на основе непрерывного мониторинга или надзора, инспектирования или аудита вышестоящими уровнями управления, а также на основе самоконтроля и самоаудита, проводимых на уровне предприятия или его подразделения собственными руководителями и специалистами в рамках выполняемых ими задач и возложенных обязанностей.
© Штурлак Н.Г., 2016
УДК 336.27
Ch.Enkhbayar
National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia P.Bayansan National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
GOVERNMENT BOND ISSUANCE AND THE POSSIBLE RISKS
Abstract
This paper introduces Mongolian Government external and domestic bond issuance since 1990's and its impact on Government debt and possible risks, based on the statistics. The National Statistics Office (NSO),
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Ministry of Finance (MOF), Bank of Mongolia (BOM) and Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) were the data providers for the research. The study revealed that the country is under great risk of external debt burden, which would cause economic recession.
Keywords:
Stock exchange, Government external and domestic bond, government debt, government external debt Financing. Funded by High-Level Research Project Funding of the National University of Mongolia.
Introduction
Mongolia is one of the countries that went through socio-economic transitionary periods since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Therefore, terms such as financial market and stock exchange came into public use only in 1990's. Since then the country is aiming to develop and stabilize its internal stock market and external stock exchange, while providing sufficient financial source for the economy and government budget. Mongolia has been successfully issuing and trading stocks, bonds securities and providing guarantees' on the internal and external stock markets. However, the use of all these financial resources not publicly open and it remains unclear in certain areas, which puts the economy under the risk of high debt burden.
1. Government Bond Issuance on Domestic Stock Market Until the late of 1987, Mongolia and its economy was under direct influence from the Soviet Union (Rossabi, 2005). During this time, the Soviet Union was the only biggest importer and monetary supporter of the country. However, starting from 1987, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country started going through transitionary cycles. The centrally planned economy system transferred into a market system, while the Soviet Union ceased all kind of support to Mongolia. The country started facing difficulties in government budget financing. The government had a very few tools to use for covering the budget deficit, an external loan from international donor organization and internal loan from the country's Central Bank, the Bank of Mongolia (BOM).
In 1991, the new Parliament amended the Constitution and Civil Acts, which permitted citizens to own properties. Meantime, the first stock exchange market was also developed in the same year. In 1996, the government introduced a new tool to cover budget deficit and initiated its first Concessional Bond trade, which equaled up to 15 billion tugriks (Mongolian currency) on Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) Market. At the end of the 1997 through 1998, another 40 billion tugriks Bond was traded on the interbank market. If look at the commerce structure of the MSE market from 1996 to 2014, share trade composed 59.6% of total stock trade, while government bond trade was consisted of 36.7% and company's bond exchange was 3.7% (see figure 1).
350,000 300,000
I
250,000 ll.
200,000
# # # # # r r # >f # P # # # # f
Я ■ Я Govt Shares Company
Figure 1 - The Trade at the Mongolian Stock Exchange 1996-2014
(million MNT) Source: MSE and Mongolbank
As it was mentioned earlier, the government didn't sell its bond through MSE market during 1997 through 1998 and 1999. Starting from 2000 until 2002, the government actively sold out bond, which constituted 90% of all trade transactions that recorded on the MSE market. From 2003 the trend started slowing down and in 2006 no
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government bond was traded on the stock market. In December of 2014, the government issued its short term (3 to 12 months) securities on the stock market that accessible for individuals and corporates. Even though the government bond and securities sold through the MSE market, most part of the trade went through the BOM (see figure 2).
Figure 2 - The total Government Securities' amount traded at Mongolbank and MSE Source: The Securities trade information of Mongolbank and MSE,
And the reason behind it was most likely government stock sales regulation and banking sector of Mongolia holds the biggest size in financial market, which has large potential to buy bonds and securities.
Since 2012, the government security trade stabilized and through 2012 to 2015 total of 200.4 billion tugriks equivalent government security was traded on the open market. From 2015, the government ceased issuing and trading long term (10 years) bonds, due to its lower demand on the market. Thus, most government stocks are short term and about 52% of trading goes through the BOM.
2. Government Bond Issuance on Foreign Stock Market
The loan was the only part of the government external debt until 2011. However in 2012, the Parliament gave permission (Parliament Resolution No.52) to the government for trading mid and long term bonds by stages within 2 years (2012-2014) on the external stock market, which equals to 5 billion tugriks. For a developing country like Mongolia, this was a door opening opportunity for obtaining external financial resources. In another hand, the settlement of interest rate and payment of the first bond issuance will determine ratings for the external bonds in the future.
International bond rating agencies rated the Chinggis bond, which was the first external government bond, as B1/BB-/B+ and 5 to 10 year bonds with 5.125% to 4.125% coupon rate was traded on the Singapore's stock market in 2012. The foreign currency that came through bond trading impacted on moderating hard currency, reduced swing in the economy and improved trade balance of the country.
In December 2013, the government of Mongolia and the Japanese International Cooperation Bank co-guaranteed the 10 million and 10 years Yen of Samurai Bond that traded on the Japanese Stock Market. During last few years Government external debt structure has changed from loan into debt notes (See figure 3).
100% 50% 0%
0%
100% 100%
2011
2012
Foreign loan
2013
Bond Guarantee
2014
2015""
Foreign Bond
35% 34% 31% 31%
16% 16% 26% 26%
49% 50% 44% 44%
31%
17% 52%
2017"
Figure 3 - Government External Loan Structure Source: Development Bank of Mongolia, www.dbm.mn Comment: ("")-forecast indicator
Г
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In 2015, the government traded Dim Sum bond, valued of 1 billion Yuan with 7% interest rate, which changed into 5.9% interest rate on USD due to its swap negotiation. Dim Sum bond (see table I) was issued in order to offset budget cash deficit and to reduce the domestic bond interest rate, which is increasing the government's debt service cost.
Table I.
Mongolian External Bond Information /million USD/
Securities issuer Amount Coupon Mature date Remaining period Secondary market price Secondary market interest
1 Government 500.0 4.125% 2018.01.05 2 year 1 month 91.249 8.991%
2 Government 1,000.0 5.125% 2022.12.05 7 year 1 month 80.517 8.939%
3 Government /Dim Sam by Yuan/ 161.2 5.960% 2018.06.30 2 year 6 month 93.040 10.583%
4 DBM /Government Guaranteed/ 580.0 5.750% 2017.03.21 1 year 4 month 95.500 9.553%
5 TDB /Government Guaranteed/ 500.0 9.375% 2020.05.19 4 year 6 month 96.250 10.449%
6 MMC 600.0 8.875% 2017.03.29 1 year 4 month 35.000 117.784%
Source: Ministry of Finance of Mongolia, 2015
Government Securities trade has reached at its highest level since 1996. This is related to the improvement of law and regulations and the increase of investors' demand on government securities. From 2012 to 2015, 96% of total trades were transacted through the BOM. However, in the first half of 2015, 30% of total trades of government securities were completed through the MSE market. This shows the expansion trend of the stock market in Mongolia and the growth of investors demand.
3. The Impact of Government Bond Issuance on the Government Debt
Government debt issue has been raised for last few years in every country. Global debt has grown by $57 trillion as of 2015 and no major economy has decreased its debt-to-GDP ratio since 2007 (Richard Dobbs, 2015). It is usually defined that higher the Government debt, lower the economy. However, Japan, the world's fourth largest economy (as measured by GDP), has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 227%. This is the highest such ratio in the world. The U.S. has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 101% which seems rather modest in comparison (Patton, 2014). Then what about our Government debt? Will our indebtedness lead us to the higher economy or vice versa?
Government debt increased at its highest in 2012 since 2010 by 49% from the previous years' or by 3,767.59 billion tugriks. This raise was formed because of the issuance of 2,088.15 billion Government Securities in 2012 and the issuance of 807.4 billion amount of Government Guarantee. According to the debt structure as of August 2015, external loan outstanding was 30 % or 4,138.4 billion, domestic securities outstanding was 22% or 3,061.7 billion, external securities outstanding was 24% or 4,642.8 billion, loan guarantee was 19% or 2,744.9 billion tugriks, advance payment for tax was 2% or 153.0 billion, and the concession outstanding to be paid by budget was 3% or 225.3 billion. The concession outstanding to be paid by budget was estimated to be included in the debt structure since May, 2015.
Between 2010 and 2015, external loan outstanding has increased by 13.95%, domestic securities by 40%, external securities by 22% and debt guarantee by 31% on average (Figure 4).
Figure 4 - Average Growth of External loan outstanding
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A government domestic security outstanding has reached 2,964.1 billion tugriks at the end of 2014 and has projected to reach 3,061.7 tugriks at the end of 2015. Interest rate of Government domestic security has increased significantly since the second half of 2014 and this is related to the tight monetary policy pursued by the BOM and some sub-programs' expiration. In other words, during the tight monetary policy, the amount of cash was reduced and bank liquidity also started to shrink.
Moreover, banks bought a large amount of 3-5 year government securities in 2013 when they had high liquidity. Because of the above reasons, the competition at the Government securities market has decreased and rates of return of government securities have increased. Furthermore, BOM's decision to increase the policy rate from 10.5% to 12% in July 2014 and to 13% in June 2015 has also affected on this change.
According to the Fiscal Stability Act Amendment of January 20th, 2015, Government debt (PV) to GDP ratio shall not exceed 58.3% in 2015 budget, 55% in 2016, 50% in 2017 and 40% starting from 2018 fiscal year. Government debt outstanding in nominal terms reached 12,629.7 billion tugriks at the end of 2014 and the outstanding indicated in PV was 10,535.1 billion tugriks and 48% of GDP. But as of August 31st 2015, government debt outstanding in nominal terms was 13,928.8 billion tugriks and the outstanding indicated in PV was equivalent to 47%. At the end of this year, the Government debt outstanding is projected to be 58% and 54.4% in 2016 (Ministry of Finance, 2016).
On the Debt Sustainability analysis from the IMF has concluded that the public debt to GDP ratio was higher than our estimation as shown in figure 5.
Figure 5 - Public Debt to GDP Ratio Source: IMF, Mongolia: Debt sustainability analysis
Even though IMF has concluded the public debt to GDP ratio would be higher in few year, it is expected to show a great fall starting from 2017 (figure 6).
Figure 6 - Public Debt to GDP Ratio Source: IMF, Mongolia: Debt sustainability analysis
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According to other countries' debt indicators (see table II), while Government debt to GDP of some countries dependent on oil and have huge resources of natural resources reach 1- 10%, 100%-200% of GDP of highly developed countries, such as Japan, Italy, USA and Singapore, covers the Government debt.
Table II
Total Government Debt to GDP Ratio
The lowest Dec/14 The highest Dec/14
Saudi Arabia 1.60 Japan 230
Brunei 2.60 Greece 1l5
Oman 4.80 Italy 128.5
Libya 6.10 Portugal 129.l
Afghanistan 6.60 7.14 Ireland 123.20 102.2
Equatorial Guinea l.60 Belgium 104.4
Uzbekistan 8.70 United States 101.7
Algeria 8.l6 Bhutan 98.4
Swaziland 9.90 Singapore 103.2
Source: Trading Economies, 2015
According to the total government debt to GDP ratio (table II), Mongolia was at level 56 out of 174 countries and it is above the average which means the debt ratio is relatively high.
4. Conclusion
In 1991, the new Parliament amended the Constitution and Civil Acts, which permitted citizens to own properties. Meantime, the first stock exchange market was also developed in the same year. In 1996, the government introduced a new tool to cover budget deficit and initiated its first Concessional Bond trade, which equaled up to 15 billion tugriks (Mongolian currency) on Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) Market. Since 2012, the government security trade stabilized and through 2012 to 2015 total of 200.4 billion tugriks equivalent government security was traded on the open market. From 2015, the government ceased issuing and trading long term (10 years) bonds, due to its lower demand on the market. Thus, most government stocks are short term and about 52% of trading goes through the BOM.
Government debt increased at its highest in 2012 since 2010 by 49% from the previous years' or by 3,767.59 billion tugriks. This raise was formed because of the issuance of 2,088.15 billion Government Securities in 2012 and the issuance of 807.4 billion amount of Government Guarantee. On the Debt Sustainability analysis from the IMF has concluded that the public debt to GDP ratio was higher than our estimation as shown. According to the total government debt to GDP ratio, Mongolia was at level 56 out of 174 countries and it is above the average which means the debt ratio is relatively high.
5. Suggestion
1. If the amount of external bond is increasing more than the domestic ones, it is already time to give attention to it. Since 2012, a number of external bonds have been issued but because of non-transparency of the purpose of issuance and use to the public, the risk of repayment is increasing. Thus, the information needs to be publicly open and clear for developing its risk management.
2. The country is issuing new bond for debt payment of another bond, which increases the Government debt rapidly and leads into the recession. The country needs debt and risk management.
3. Mongolia has successfully issued a bond in the international market and set the Mongolian benchmark interest rate to the world. However, because of the decreasing number of foreign investment, increasing number of external debt and the impact of political risks, in last few years the credit rating of the country has been decreasing. Stable political and economic environment are the vital part of foreign investment attraction, which Mongolia needs to provide.
МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ НАУЧНЫЙ ЖУРНАЛ «СИМВОЛ НАУКИ» №11-1/2016 ISSN 2410-700Х
References
1. Annual Report of Mongolian Stock Exchange (2014)
2. Development Bank of Mongolia. (2015). www.dbm.mn
3. Dulamsuren. D. (2000). Securities Market Maturity Development.Ulaanbaatar
4. Government Securities trade information of Mongolian Stock Exchange (June, 2015).
5. Patton, M. (2014, 9 18). The U.S. Debt: Why It Will Continue To Rise. Forbes.
6. Richard Dobbs, S. L. (2015). Debt and (not much) deleveraging. McKinsey Global Institute
7. Rosabi M. (2005). From Khans to Commissars to Capitalists. Modern Mongolia. California: University of California Press. Retrieved from ttp://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/j.ctt1ppngd
© Энх6аaр H., EaaHcaH n. 2016
УДК 339.9
Яценко Сергей Сергеевич
магистр
Институт экономики и управления (структурное подразделение) ФГАОУ ВО «Крымский федеральный университет имени В.И. Вернадского»,
г. Симферополь, Российская Федерация E-mail: [email protected]
РАЗВИТИЕ ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ РОССИИ
В МИРОВУЮ ЭКОНОМИКУ
Аннотация
Рассматривается необходимость усиления инновационной деятельности в современном глобализированном мире, роль инноваций в организации и ведении внешнеэкономической деятельности и повышении международной конкурентоспособности.
Ключевые слова
Мировое хозяйство, инновации, инновационная деятельность, научно-технический потенциал, глобализация.
Современные тенденции мировой экономики характеризуются интеграцией финансовых, политических и социальных процессов. Становление информационной эры формирует новую систему ценностей, где государство утрачивает свое влияние в пользу рынка. Этот процесс называется глобализацией, и сегодня решающим фактором в конкурентной гонке является инновация. Для современного этапа развития мирового хозяйства информационные технологии играют роль факторов экономического роста. Основой повышения глобальной конкурентоспособности в XXI веке становятся технологические инновации, внедрение и широкое распространение которых невозможно осуществить без развития экономики и общества, основанных на знаниях [1, с. 90]. Глобализация и активизация кооперации бизнеса диктует новые условия существования и конкуренции в мировом хозяйстве.
В нынешнем глобализированном мире, который в принципе пережил мировой экономический кризис, но продолжает сталкиваться со значительными социальными, экономическими и экологическими проблемами, экономика «подталкивает» правительства к поиску новых подходов в определении направлений инновационной политики, которая бы предусматривала динамику и изменения [2].
Инновационная деятельность сама по себе как форма исследования появилась не так давно, хотя активность в этой отрасли наблюдалась на протяжении всей истории. В настоящее время в статистике произведенного ВВП во всех странах уже существует графа «доля инновационного продукта».
