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Выпуск 4 (44) Том - 2020
Псковский регионологический журнал. 2013-2021
ISSN 2219--7931 URL - http://prj.pskgu.ru Все права защищены Выпуск 4 (44) Том . 2020
Dynamics of foreign trade of Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region with the PRC in the context of "One belt - one road" megaproject
Лачининский Станислав Сергеевич
Saint Petersburg State University Russian Federation, Saint-Petersburg
Сорокин Иван Сергеевич
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Russian Federation, Moscow
Шендрик Александр Владимирович
Saint Petersburg State University Russian Federation, Sankt-Petersburg
Аннотация
The paper focuses on the study of foreign trade dynamics of St. Petersburg and Leningrad region as important nodal coastal regions in the Russian Baltic and China as the initiator and main investor of the "One Belt — One Road" megaproject. The purpose of the study is to show the shifts in the dynamics of mutual trade between the PRC and St. Petersburg with the Leningrad region as the main coastal regions of Russia in the Baltic region in the context of a change in the geo-economic vector of Russia and the implementation of China pan-Eurasian megaproject. Foreign trade plays an important role in the economy of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, as well as for many other mainland regions of the country. Thanks to the developed transport and logistics infrastructure, in particular, ports, warehouses and railway. These regions are large trade and distribution hubs, providing not only their own needs, but also the needs of other regions of Russian Federation. The dynamics of foreign trade is analyzed in the sectoral context in the period from 2004 to 2019. The study is based on the operational data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and takes into account the adopted industry structure. After analyzing the data, the authors come to the conclusion that at present time the trade of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region with China remains very highly specialized. The most notable are exports of hydrocarbons through trunk pipelines and local ports, import of goods of a medium and high level of processing (cars, clothing, consumer goods, products of metallurgy and chemical industry) and their redistribution to other regions of Russia.
Ключевые слова: pan-Eurasian megaproject, export, import, transport and logistics infrastructure, Russian Baltic
Дата публикации: 19.05.2021 Источник финансирования:
The paper was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (No. 19-18-00005 "Eurasian vectors of Russia's maritime economic activity: regional economic projections")
Ссылка для цитирования:
Лачининский С. С. , Сорокин И. С. , Шендрик А. В. Dynamics of foreign trade of Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region with the PRC in the context of "One belt - one road" megaproject // Псковский регионологический журнал. - 2020. - Выпуск 4 (44) C. 29-41 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://prj.pskgu.ra/s221979310011183-4-1/ (дата обращения: 10.11.2021). DOI: 10.37490/S221979310011183-4
1 Introduction. As experts from Ernst & Young note, Russia's big turn to the East began in 2014, against the backdrop of mutual sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, and now, in 2020, the growing role of China in the Russian economy is quite noticeable.
2 As the world's largest trading nation, China is responsible for about 10% of world trade1. Most of its goods are transported by sea, which means that China is the main destination and starting point for international shipping routes.
3 Future prospects are associated with consolidation of economic space of Eurasia and strengthening of trade and economic ties between Europe and East Asia. Thus, according to the OECD2, by 2050, from 0.5 to 1 million out of 20 million containers will be transported along the railways between Europe and Asia, that is, only 2.5-5 % of the total volume of supplies. According to expert's estimates, the total volume of container handling for export in the world exceeds 200 million TEU. At the same time, about 98 % of the volume of mutual supplies of the EU countries and China is served by sea transport, 1.5-2 % by air and 0.5-1 % by rail transport. In the structure of cargo transportation between the EU and China, 80 % of cargo is transported in containers3. Prospects for expanding mutual trade are associated with the fact that the average duration of delivery of the same goods from China to the EU via the EAEU railways does not exceed two weeks, while the delivery time for container cargo from China to the EU by sea reaches 60 days.
4 In this context, given the growing expansion of the PRC in the Eurasian space, St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region can be determined as the most important port-industrial and transport-logistics outpost of Russia in the Baltic region.
5 Lanzhou as a transport and logistics hub in the East, the importance of which increased with the opening of the high-speed railway in 2014, should become a potential contractor of St. Petersburg from the Chinese side. This city should become an important transit point for the created transport corridors: the Western Europe — Western China highway (Lianyungang — St. Petersburg) and the New Eurasian Land Bridge (Lianyungang — Rotterdam) railway.
6 The geostrategic role of St. Petersburg for the OBOR has already been recognized at least by the fact that it is precisely the destination of the Western China — Western Europe highway, which is planned to be completed by 20234. If the highway is still under construction, then a whole system of ports on the Baltic Sea in St. Petersburg itself and in the neighboring Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Vyborg and Bronka is already operational and is a ready-made marine component of the northern transport hub. Thus, the construction of a new modern railway from St. Petersburg to the southeast of the European part of Russia, towards the Urals, Siberia and further to China would meet the national interests of Russia. Connected with the existing lines of the Asia-Europe Continental Bridge (Transsib) and the New Continental Bridge passing through Kazakhstan, such a road would also meet the national interests of China. Access to the Baltic Sea and the existing transport network
of Northern Europe would expand the possibilities of direct trade with the countries of these regions. In the future, this modern freight highway, which can be called a north-western passage, could be extended to the North, to the countries of Scandinavia, and to the West, to the countries of Eastern and Western Europe.
7 The PRC is already showing great interest in St. Petersburg. In particular, in 2018, out of 8.2 million tourists who visited the city on the Neva rier, 1.3 million tourists came from China5. The flow of tourists from China to St. Petersburg is increasing by 10-15 % per year.
8 The volume of Chinese business is growing proportionally. Investors are interested in real estate and retail. Among the largest projects are: residential area "Baltic Pearl" in the south-west of the city6; the Russian-Chinese business park on Vasilievsky Island; the Russian-Chinese cultural center of the Hua Ren group of companies with the Nihao hotel at Tallinskaya street, worth over 1.17 billion rubles7; the Russian-Chinese Congress and Exhibition Center "Druzhba" worth 36 billion rubles. Several chains of Chinese restaurants operate in the city: Tan Zhen (9 restaurants), Mi Fan (1 restaurant), Nihao (2 restaurants), Ditai (1 restaurant), Ali (1 restaurant), Green Tea (1 restaurant), Zao Wang (3 restaurants) and others (5 restaurants).
9 A strategic project in the Leningrad Region is the construction of the Baltic Chemical Complex — a gas chemical complex as part of an ethane-containing gas processing complex, which is being implemented by the Chinese National Chemical Engineering Co. (CNCEC) and the russian RusGazDobycha.
10 The ethane-containing gas processing complex is an integrated project for the processing of ethane-containing gas produced at the fields of Gazprom; it consists of a gas processing plant, a gas chemical complex and transport infrastructure facilities and is supposed to be located in the Ust-Luga settlement of the Kingisepp District of the Leningrad region. The commissioning of the first stage of the complex is scheduled for the second half of 2023, the second stage — by the end of 2024. The total investment in the construction is about 12 billion euros8.
11 Issue overview. Recently, both in the russian and foreign scientific literature, there has been an increased attention to Russian-Chinese foreign trade [4; 8]. Of particular interest to russian researchers is the cross-border trade between Russia and China in the Far East and Siberia [10]. But still, generally, modern researchers consider the mutual foreign trade of two countries in a broader context, often within the geopolitical paradigm [9]. It should be noted that some researchers in their studies are limited to only one commodity group in the foreign trade of Russia and China [7].
12 Unfortunately, until now, the foreign trade of the two countries, at the level - "country-region" or "region-region" has been practically neglected. At the same time, the pan-Eurasian project of the PRC "One Belt — One Road" and its impact on foreign trade and mutual exports are of great interest [1-3; 5; 6].
13 Features of Russia-China foreign trade. In 2018, the Russian-Chinese trade turnover between the countries grew by 27.1 % and reached a maximum value of 107.06 billion dollars. The growth of trade turnover continues for 2 years in a row, which is significant given the decline in 2015-2016. Bilateral trade expanded at a faster pace than China's overall foreign trade (+ 12.6 %), which was the highest in history. China is the main trade partner of Russia; among the partners of the PRC, the Russian Federation ranked 11th in terms of trade volume and first in terms of growth.
14 Exports from the Russian Federation to the PRC grew at a higher pace (+ 42.7 %) than exports from the PRC to the RF (+ 12 %)9. Russia achieved a trade surplus in trade with China. The positive dynamics of Russian exports to China was influenced by the state of the world commodity markets, as well as the development of interaction between countries on state and regional level.
15 In 2019, noticeable results were achieved in the eastern direction of Russian foreign policy.
16 According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation (FCS), the trade turnover between St. Petersburg and the PRC in 2019 reached $ 7.1 billion, which is 6.6 % of the
national.
17 According to the estimates of Chinese experts, a significant role in the interaction between Russia and China is played by the efficiency of public administration and increased transparency in the use of investments. Growing efficiency of public administration in Russia may result in rising the share of goods with increased value added in the structure of the economy, and in the long term in the structure of Russian-Chinese trade10.
18 Dynamics of foreign trade of St. Petersburg and the PRC. Trade balance from 2004 to 2019 remained consistently negative, with imports significantly exceeding exports. In 2019, imports ($ 5.2 billion) exceeded exports ($ 1.9 billion) 2.7 times.
19 Foreign trade plays an important role in the economy of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. Thanks to the developed transport and logistics infrastructure, in particular, ports, warehouses and railway; the regions are large trade and distribution hubs, providing not only their own needs, but also the needs of other regions of Russian Federation.
20 In St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the foreign trade quota (the ratio of foreign trade turnover to the volume of gross regional product — GRP) significantly exceeds the average Russian level (Fig. 1). In some years (2006 and 2008) the value of this indicator exceeded 200 % in St. Petersburg. In the Leningrad Region, until 2014, foreign trade turnover exceeded the volume of GRP (the quota is more than 100 %).
250,0 %
0,0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 i 2012 2013 2014- 2015 2016 20П 201E
1 Кивало Federation ■ gt Petersburg I T лтд тН eeicb
Figure 1. Share of foreign trade turnover in GRP (GDP)
22 Such a high value of this indicator suggests that in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, foreign trade operations are carried out not only by local organizations, but also by organizations from other regions. It should also be noted that in the 2010s, the value of the indicator decreased significantly.
23 Trade relations of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region with the People's Republic of China are actively developing (Fig. 2). By the beginning of the 2010s, the volume of imports to St. Petersburg from the PRC exceeded 7 billion US dollars. Trade declined sharply in 2014-2015. Since 2015, the turnover of trade with the PRC has been steadily growing, both in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region.
24 The rapid growth of trade turnover occurred in the period from 2005 to 2008. The crisis of 2008-2009 brought down both exports and imports. After a rapid recovery, imports from China and St. Petersburg almost halved from 2012 to 2015. Since then, there has been a slow recovery, which coincided with so called "Russia's pivot to the East".
^^^StP. export ^^^ St J1, import ^^^ LR export LR import
Figure 2. Trade of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region with China (USD billion)
26 Trade with China is of great importance for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. In the 2000s, trade turnover with the PRC amounted to 14 % of St. Petersburg's GRP, while the average for Russia did not exceed 2 % of GDP (Fig. 3).
27 i6,o %
14,0 %
2004 2005 2006 2007 20GS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MIS
Figure 3. Share of trade turnover with China in GRP (GDP)
28 In the Leningrad Region, from 2014 to 2018, the trade turnover with China increased from 2.5 to 10 % of GRP, equal to the same indicator in St. Petersburg. The share of trade with China in the GDP of Russia increased from 4 to 6.5 %.
29 The high value of this indicator in comparison with the average Russian level suggests that St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region are important hubs in trade with the PRC. The regions play the role of "gates" for cooperation with Chinese companies for other parts of Russia. The importance of the Leningrad Region in this process has been growing especially rapidly in recent years
30 Mineral raw materials remain the main export category of goods of both St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region in trade with China (Fig. 4, 5). First of all, it is crude oil. In recent years, this category has occupied 70-80 % of the total export of St. Petersburg to the PRC and 80-90 % of the total export of Leningrad region. It should be noted that the supply of mineral products from the Leningrad region to China began only in 2013. This is probably due to the launch of Baltic Pipeline System-2 (BPS-2).
31
Saint Petersburg. In the 2010s, the PRC became one of the most important trading
partners of St. Petersburg. The share of the PRC in the city's import steadily exceeds 20 %. The share in exports in recent years has been in the range of 5-10 %. At the same time, there is a noticeable imbalance in trade: 1) import significantly exceeds export; 2) import is much more diversified; 3) St. Petersburg imports from the PRC mainly goods with high and medium value added, and exports raw materials and goods of low value added.
32 Trends in recent years indicate that the gap between total exports and imports will shrink, but all other imbalances may deepen.
33 Mineral products are the main export commodity of St. Petersburg in trade with the PRC from 2007 to the present. First of all, these are crude oil and petroleum products. It should be noted that in 2004-2006 the main export category was machinery and equipment, but since 2007 the supply of goods in this category has practically ceased.
34 The share of mineral products in exports to the PRC in recent years has been 70-80 %. In the period from 2013 to 2018, this product category provided almost the entire increase in exports from St. Petersburg to China. In 2019, supplies of mineral products from St. Petersburg to the PRC amounted to $ 1.2 billion. In addition, in the past few years, the supply of wood and pulp and paper products, as well as metals and metal products, has been actively growing. Currently, each of these product groups accounts for about 13 % of St. Petersburg's exports to the PRC (about $ 250 million).
35 All other product groups in aggregate make up less than 5 % of St. Petersburg's exports to the PRC.
36 Probably, in the short and medium term, St. Petersburg will remain a supplier of mineral raw materials, metals and metal products for the PRC, as well as chemical products, while importing products with high (machinery and equipment, some goods from the category of "other goods") and medium (products chemical industry, metals and metal products, textiles and textile products) value added.
37 In addition to mineral products, St. Petersburg exports wood and pulp and paper products, as well as metals and metal products to the PRC. In recent years, export deliveries in these categories have been growing and in 2019 amounted to about 13 % of exports to China each. The volume of exports of the Leningrad Region for all product categories, except for mineral products, is insignificant.
38 In 2005 and 2006, there were large deliveries of goods of the category "Machinery, equipment and vehicles" from St. Petersburg to the PRC. However, it may be determined as onetime burst and never repeated later. Probably, this could be due to the supply of weapons through the port of St. Petersburg.
39 Exports from St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region to China are of a raw material nature, the main commodity is oil. Mineral products account for the majority of exports and are the main driver of its growth in recent years.
2,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201В
H Other goods
■ Machinery, equipment and vehicles
■ Metals and metal products
■ Textiles, textile products and footwear
■ Wood and pulp and paper products
■ Raw hides, furs and products Chemical products, rubber
Figure 4. Export of St. Petersburg to the PRC (USD billion)
■ Mineral products
■ Food products and agricultural raw materials (except textiles)
41
1,4
1,0
0,S
0,6
0,2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201?
<f О ber £0 о ds »Textiles, textile pre d nets and ■ Ran' hides, furs and pro due is ■ Mineral produc Is
footwear
■ Machinery, equipment and
l"ehlCleS ■ Wood and pulp and paper Chunical products, rubber ■Food and agricultural
raw7 materials (except textiles)
■ Metals and metal products products
Figure 5. Exports of the Leningrad region to the PRC (USD billion)
8,0
7,0
43
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
i Other goods
■Machinery, equipment and vehicles
■Metals and metal products
■ Textiles, textile products and footwear
■ Wood and pulp and paper products
■ Rawhides, furs and products Chemical products, rubher
■ Mineral products
■ Food products and agricultural raw materials (except textiles)
Figure 6. Imports of St. Petersburg from China (USD billion)
0,6
2004 2005 2006 20i
■ Other goods
■ Machinery, equipment and vehicles
■ Metals and metal products
■ Textiles, textile products and footwear
■ Wood and pulp and paper products
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ■ Raw hides, furs and products
Chemical products, rubber
2016 2017 2018 ■ Mineral products
■ Food products and agricultural raw materials (except textiles)
Figure 7. Imports of the Leningrad region from the PRC (USD billion)
44 Imports of goods from China to both St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region have grown significantly over the past fifteen years. However, St. Petersburg imports goods from the PRC much more actively than the Leningrad region. Despite the presence of the largest trade ports in the Leningrad region, the volume of imports from the PRC only slightly exceeds $ 0.5 billion. At the same time, the import of goods to St. Petersburg from the PRC exceeds $ 5 billion, and in 20122013 it even exceeded $ 7 billion.
45 The main driver of growth and the largest product category in terms of value was "Machinery, equipment and vehicles". Deliveries to the Leningrad region in this category increased from 2015 to 2019 by almost 3.5 times. Both in St. Petersburg and in the Leningrad region, goods of this category by value account for more than half of all imports from the PRC.
46 There are also relatively large supplies from China to St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region of goods from such categories as "Products of the chemical industry", "Textiles, textiles and footwear" (mainly clothing and footwear), "Metals and articles thereof" and "Others goods "(mass consumer goods). But the amount of imports of any of these categories does not exceed one billion dollars.
47 Trade between St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region with China is rapidly developing in the 21st century. These regions occupy an important transit position in all Russian-Chinese trade and play the role of a major center for the redistribution of goods (hub). However, exports to China remain raw materials by more than 80 %, supplies of mineral products constitute its basis and are the main driver of growth.
48 Imports from the PRC are more diversified. The largest commodity category is machinery and equipment; supplies of goods of this category to the Leningrad region are growing especially actively. All other product categories are significantly inferior.
49 Conclusion. Summing up, we can say that at present time the trade of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region with the PRC remains highly specialized. The model could be described as follows: export of hydrocarbons through trunk pipelines and local ports; import of goods of a medium and high value added (cars, clothing, consumer goods, products of metallurgy and chemical industry) and their redistribution to other regions of Russia.
50 It can be assumed that with the development of the New Silk Road project, the role of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region as centers of transit and redistribution of goods from the PRC will expand beyond Russia to the territory of Eastern and Northern Europe. This requires coordinated efforts of business and the authorities of Russia, China and the countries of the European Union.
Примечания:
1. URL: //parstoday.com/ru/radio/programs-i99273 (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
2. Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/2050. France's Gateway Ports and Inland Connections. Meeting with Meeddm Officials, Paris, 7 May 2010. Final Report. OECD. International Futures Programme. URL: https: Www.0ecd.0rgFuturesInfrastructureto203048368193.pdf.
3. URL: //www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/ (date of access: 20.08.2020).
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6. Shanghai Industrial Investment Company acted as a land developer and full-cycle developer. On a plot of 205 hectares on the shore of the Gulf of Finland in the Krasnoselsky District, more than 2 million m2 of real estate is being built, including more than 1.5 m2 of housing. Together with the Chinese developer, the construction is being carried out by three Russian partners: KBC, Setl City and Legenda.
7. URL: //www.dp.ru/a/2019/08/04/Kitajskij_Vasilevskij (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
8. URL: //asninfo.ru/news/88585-kitayskiy-podryadchik-postroit-krupnyy-gazokhimicheskiy-kompleks-v-rayone-ust-lugi (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
9. Trade between Russia and China in 2018 grew by 27.1%. TASS, January 14, 2019. URL:>>>> (date of access: 20.08.2020).
10. URL: //russiancouncil.ru/papers/Russia-China-Report46-Ru.pdf (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
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Dynamics of foreign trade of Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region with the PRC in the context of "One belt - one road" megaproject
Stanislav Lachininskii
Saint Petersburg State University Russian Federation, Saint-Petersburg Ivan Sorokin
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Russian Federation, Moscow Alexander Shendrik
Saint Petersburg State University Russian Federation, Sankt-Petersburg
Abstract
The paper focuses on the study of foreign trade dynamics of St. Petersburg and Leningrad region as important nodal coastal regions in the Russian Baltic and China as the initiator and main investor of the "One Belt — One Road" megaproject. The purpose of the study is to show the shifts in the dynamics of mutual trade between the PRC and St. Petersburg with the Leningrad region as the main coastal regions of Russia in the Baltic region in the context of a change in the geo-economic vector of Russia and the implementation of China pan-Eurasian megaproject. Foreign trade plays an important role in the economy of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, as well as for many other mainland regions of the country. Thanks to the developed transport and logistics infrastructure, in particular, ports, warehouses and railway. These regions are large trade and distribution hubs, providing not only their own needs, but also the needs of other regions of Russian Federation. The dynamics of foreign trade is analyzed in the sectoral context in the period from 2004 to 2019. The study is based on the operational data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and takes into account the adopted industry structure. After analyzing the data, the authors come to the conclusion that at present time the trade of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region with China remains very highly specialized. The most notable are exports of hydrocarbons through trunk pipelines and local ports, import of goods of a medium and high level of processing (cars, clothing, consumer goods, products of metallurgy and chemical industry) and their redistribution to other regions of Russia.
Keywords: pan-Eurasian megaproject, export, import, transport and logistics infrastructure, Russian Baltic
Date of publication: 19.05.2021 Citation link:
Lachininskii S., Shendrik A., Sorokin I. Dynamics of foreign trade of Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region with the PRC in the context of "One belt - one road" megaproject // Pskov region studies journal. - 2020. - Issue 4 (44) C. 29-41 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://prj .pskgu.ru/ s221979310011183-4-1/ (circulation date: 10.11.2021). DOI: 10.37490/S221979310011183-4
Код пользователя: 0; Дата выгрузки: 10.11.2021; URL - http://prj.pskgu.ru/s221979310011183-4-1/ Все права защищены.
