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40Development of renewable energy in the East: problems and prospects
Abstract. World energy as a whole, particularly energy in oriental countries, has recently been going through the fast growth of alternative energy sources. This process was initiated by the growing price competitiveness of green technologies. Oriental countries vary in their possession of primary energy carriers and structure of their energy balances. Energy-deficit regions of East, South-East and South Asia are interested in the maximum development of all possible means of energy, preferably from renewable sources, to maintain the world's quickest economic growth. Regions of West Asia and North Africa, which abound in cheap and accessible fossil fuel, paradoxical as it may seem, are no less interested in the accelerated progress of new energy to remedy structural economic defects fraught with lower incomes from reduced fuel exports. Actually all oriental countries have ambitious renewable energy targets.
Keywords: Renewable energy (RE), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, feed-in tariff, small hydro power plant, energy subsidies, green energy.
World energy as a whole, particularly the energy in Oriental countries, has recently been going through major structural changes. The main of these changes is the rapid growth in the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the energy balances of most states. This process was initiated by the growing price competitiveness of renewable energy technologies, political initiatives that contributed to the expansion of this energy sector, the opening of access to sources of financing, exacerbated problems of energy and environmental security, and the growing energy demand from rapidly developing young economies.
The most important impetus to the development of renewable energy was the adoption by the UN in 2015 of the Convention on Climate Change, in which 195 countries agreed on the need to limit global warming, a result of traditional carbon energy functioning, and to reconsider the degree of support given to it.
The fast growth of RES was made possible, first of all, thanks to the very rapidly growing competitiveness. Geothermal energy and small hydroelectric power plants already are competitive, and solar and wind energy will be equal to capital expenditure to about carbon energy by 2040, and will not require subsidies1. During the period 2010-2015 capital costs in wind and solar energy have more than halved and this process, at least, does not slow down2.
RES is yet subsidized by the states. The volume of this support is increasing and by 2016 has reached $120 billion globally. However, traditional energy is also subsidized on a much larger scale (in 2016 the global volume of subsidies amounted to more than $500 billion); while the effectiveness of subsidizing
* Borisov Mikhail Glebovich - Senior Researcher, Economic Research Department, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
1 World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017, p. 443.
renewable energy is steadily increasing (subsidies in 2016 increased by 6%, and the installed energy capacities by 8%), and the return from subsidizing energy based on fossil sources falls3.
An important factor in enhancing the competitiveness of RES was the development and successful implementation of energy storage technologies. This seriously strengthened the market positions of RES, for which the irregularity of production was a serious obstacle to their further growth.
Promoting renewable energy was also facilitated by increased financial pressure on coal energy companies (especially in China and the European Union) through the introduction of carbon dioxide emission quotas. This was a serious breakthrough in solving environmental problems of energy through market mechanisms.
Renewable energy has received an additional competitive impulse to develop after the worldwide distribution of a "green" energy tariff (feed-in tariff), including guaranteed connection to distribution grids and mandatory purchase of electricity generated from renewable sources by marketing companies, a " costs plus "(the consumer fully pays for the production costs and the marginal rate of profit of the producer). This tariff, initially inaccessible to the population of poor countries, is rapidly declining due to technological progress and the growth in the number ofrelatively developed economies.
In the new energy sector $286 billion was invested in the world in 2015 (54% of this amount went to solar energy, 36% to wind power, 8% to small hydro power plants, and 2% to others), which is twice as much than energy based on fossil fuels4. At the same time, private capital accounted for about 80%, which indicates the financial attractiveness of projects. The main contribution to their financing is made by international financial companies. New financial instruments are getting spread - "green bonds", crowdfunding and so on.
The attractiveness of investing in RES will increase. The agency Bllomberg believes that from a huge amount of 10.2 trillion USD., which will be invested in the global energy sector in 2015-2040, 72% will come from wind and solar power 5. The cost of electricity from the sun will fall in the world during this period by 66% 6. By 2021 it will become cheaper than electricity generated by coal-fired plants in China, India, Japan7. During the same period, the cost of electricity generated at onshore wind farms should decrease by 47%, and at offshore ones -by 71%8. On a combination of factors, investment in new energy is becoming more attractive than investment in traditional energy. As early as 2016 60% of the newly commissioned energy capacity in the world fell on RES and this share will increase9.
3 Global Trends in Renewable Energy. KPMG. h ttps: //home.kpmg.com/.../Global...(access date: 04/01/2018).
4 World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017, p. 406.
5 Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2017 https://about.bnef.com/en/energy/energy-outlook
6 Ibid.
7 Ibid.
8 Ibid.
9 International Energy outlook http://www.eia.gov/ieo
The reorientation of investment in energy for new sources of energy production will lead to an increase in the share of renewable energy in energy balances and, especially, in the structure of electricity production. By 2040 the share of renewable energy in global electric generation should be 31% (together with large hydroelectric power stations), as much as the share of coal, while the share of large hydroelectric power stations in total generation from RES will drop from 71% in 2015 to 53% by 2040 due to the exhaustion of opportunities for extensive growth10. However, the_structure of global electricity generation will remain predominantly carbon for the foreseeable future: in 2015 69% of the generation was accounted for by fossil fuels, 19% by large hydropower plants, 6% by wind stations, 4% by solar stations, 2% by bioenergy, by 2040 the share of carbon fuel will not decrease drastically, - to 54%, the share of large hydroelectric power plants will drop to 17%, the share of solar and wind energy will make up 13%, bioenergy will remain at 2% 11. The reason is practically zero initial level of the new electric power industry and huge scale of fire generation. Even on a smaller scale, the share of RES in the world energy balance will increase (see Table 1). The reason is limited use of RE in many industries (as a source of primary energy), transport (aviation, water, pipeline) and agriculture.
Table 1
The share of renewable energy in the world fuel and energy balance (%)
2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)
Share in energy balance 8 12 16
Share in power generation 23 30 37
Share in heat power industry 9 11 15
Share in transport 3 4 6t
Share in industry and agriculture 9 12 15
Source: World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017.
The nature of the development of the RES sector in the economically developed part of the world and in the group of catching up countries, especially in the East, as the most dynamic part of it, will vary widely. Developed countries, characterized by the "withdrawal" of old energy-intensive industries, the slow growth (or stagnation) of the population and the growing energy efficiency of the economy (a faster decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP), which give priority to the ecological component of the quality of life, even on the basis of only existing energy capacities, will be able to ensure a progressive economic dynamics within the postindustrial system of productive forces. Therefore, the development of power engineering here will obviously go along the way only
10 Ibid.
11 Ibid.
to replace the new ones (wind and solar power plants) due to depreciation of old capacities (TPPs and NPPs). The states of the East, which are, in most cases, in the stage of industrialization, the construction and transport boom, characterized by rapid population growth, will not be able to meet their rapidly growing energy needs from renewable sources alone. Therefore, despite the fact that the countries of the East (Asia and North Africa) in 2015-2040 will account for about 73% of the world's investments in renewable energy sources, and renewable energy production will increase by 265% (with a total increase in power generation by 126%), the share of new energy in the energy balance will increase only from 8% to 14%, respectively12. In addition, renewable power plants occupy a large area (1 sq. Km of solar "farm", on average, it produces electricity per year corresponding to burning only 1 million barrels of oil), a relatively small capacity (average solar power of about 20 times less than the average power of the TPP) and can not meet the energy needs of large energy-intensive industries and densely populated areas. Therefore, renewable energy in the greater part of the East will develop in a single complex with all possible branches of traditional energy (with outstripping growth), or autonomously, outside the energy systems, to supply energy to remote rural areas, of which there are many in the East.
From the point of view of the availability of primary energy sources and the structure of the fuel and energy balance, the countries of the East differ greatly, but they are united by a common desire for the most accelerated development of renewable energy. The energy-deficient regions of East, South-East and South Asia are interested in maximizing the development of all methods of generating energy to ensure their fastest economic growth in the world, giving the highest possible preference to renewable sources. The regions of South-West Asia and North Africa, rich in cheap and affordable fossil fuels, are equally interested, paradoxically, in forcing the development of new energy to eliminate structural distortions in the economy, fraught with a decrease in revenues from a reduction in fuel exports. Thus, all the countries of the East set themselves ambitious goals in the field of renewable energy (Table 2).
Table 2
The share of renewable energy sources in the primary energy consumption and also in the production of electrical energy in the countries of the East
Primary energy consumption Electricity production
Share in 2015 Government goal Share in 2015 Government goal
Algeria - - 5,00% 45% by 2030
Azerbaijan 0.5% - 19,00% 20% by 2020
Egypt 20,00% 24% by 2020 1,00% 30% by 2020
12 World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017, p. 406.
Primary energy consumption Electricity production
Share in 2015 Government goal Share in 2015 Government goal
Bangladesh - - 3,00% 10% by 2020
Brunei - 2% by 2035 1,00% 10% by 2035
Vietnam 32% 38% by 2020 38,00% 50% by2020
Israel - - 8,00% 17% by 2030
India 19,00% 25% by 2040 19,00% 40% by 2040
Indonesia 25% by 2025 6,00% 50% by 2040
Jordan 5,00% 10% by 2020 3,00% 10% by 2020
Kazakhstan - - - 30% by 2030
Cambodia 36,00% 45% by 2035 46,00% 55% by 2035
PRC 2,00% 12% by 2030 20,00% 29% by 2030
Laos - - 38,00% 70% by 2030
Mauritania 4,00% 20% by 2020 8,00% 60% by2025
Malaysia - 7% by 2030 8,00% 11% by 2030
Morocco - 30% by 2036 15,00% 40% by 2036
Mongolia - 22% by 2030 4,00% 30% by 2030
Myanmar 30,00% 35% to 2035 40,00% 60% by 2035
Saud. Arabia - 15% by 2032 8,00% 50% by 2032
Thailand - 25% by 2032 12,00% 40% by 2036
Philippines 34,00% 40% by 2035 39,00% 60% by 2035
Sri Lanka 50,00% 65% by 2035 54,00% 70% by 2035
Japan 6,00% 17% by 2030 13,00% 25% by2030
Source: Renewables 2016. Global Status Report. Ren. 21 Secretariat. P., 2017
The widest field for the development of exclusively renewable energy is the numerous vast, little-developed and yet non electrified regions of the East. Decentralized, autonomous development of "green" energy in them has a number of undeniable benefits. Since the units of small alternative energy are compact
and ready for operation, there is no need for large-scale construction, delivery of overall equipment and construction materials, special construction of roads. There is also no need to connect "small" energy facilities to power grids and construction of power lines, which reduces capital costs and also losses in grids (which reach up to 20% of generated electricity). The elimination of traditional biomass from household energy supplies reduces the scale of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions.
Table 3
Status and prospects of electrification of remote areas of the East and replace them with traditional biomass for new renewable sources of energy for heating and cooking
Village electrification (%) Share of population using traditional biomass for heating and cooking (%) Share of RES in cooking and heating(%)
2015 Target 2015 Target
Bangladesh 61 100 to 2021 89 0 5 by 2025
Vietnam 97 100 by 2020 47 1 8 by2030
Cambodia 39 75 by 2030 88 0 4 by2025
N. Korea 26 90 by 2018 46 1 5 by 2020
India 80 100 by 2035 39 1 7 by 2035
Indonesia 79 90 by 2030 39 0 10 by2030
Yemen 46 - 32 0 9 by 2030
Mauritania 28 55 by 2025 80 0 5 by 2025
Mongolia 90 100 by 2025 63 0 10 by 2025
Myanmar 38 - 93 0 6 by 2035
Nepal 76 - 86 0 5 by 2030
Pakistan 73 100 by 2030 58 1 15 by 2030
Syria 93 100 by 2025 7 1 18 by 2035
Thailand 89 - 24 2 15 by 2023
Philippines 80 - 54 1 15 by 2030
Sri Lanka 94 100 by 2020 74 1 10 by 2025
Source: Renewables 2016. Global Status Report. Ren 21 Secretariat. P., 2017.
The countries of the East are already occupying an outstanding position in the world renewable energy. The PRC is the world's first investor in RES (Japan -third, India - the fifth), Mauritania - in the first place in terms of investments in renewable energy per unit of GDP (Morocco - in the fourth), the Philippines and Indonesia - in the second and third (after the USA) for established geothermal capacities, China is in the lead by the capacity of all other RES (India - the third), the first world "four" in the number of installed domestic solar panels -Bangladesh, India, China, Nepal, the first world "five" by the number of biogas plants - China, India, Nepal, Viet Nam, Bangladesh13.
China is developing alternative energy in the world's largest scale and the world's highest rates. This country accounts for 28% of global investment in renewable energy and this figure is growing. China already accounts for 37% of the world's solar power and 34% of the world's wind power, while the share of solar power plants in the country's total power generation is only 1%, and wind power is 3%14. The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) outlines the growth of wind and solar power generation, respectively, 156% and 115%15. During this time, the PRC will account for 36% of the newly introduced capacities in the world's hydropower, 40% in wind power and 37% in solar energy. At present, China accounts for almost 40% of the world's jobs at renewable energy (about 3 million out of 8 million people), the 13 th five-year plan envisages the creation of another 13 million jobs and the end of 2020 in the country it will work in the new energy industry for more than half of all those employed in this field in the world16.
As the largest consumer of energy, China is its largest importer; becoming a world "factory", this country has become the largest carbon dioxide emitter. Due to this, the forced growth of alternative energy is firmly incorporated in the strategy for further economic growth: the share of renewable energy in 15% planned by 2020 will "save" 580 million tons of coal, lead to a 18% reduction in the carbon intensity of GDP (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP), reduce the water capacity of GDP by 23% It saves almost 76 billion. US$ due to a relative decrease in imports of primary energy sources, almost 75% increase in the number of days with satisfactory air quality in major cities17.
An important place in the development of RES in the PRC is the construction of hydroelectric power plants, especially small ones. If large Chinese HPPs, which account for more than a quarter of the world's hydroelectric power, are base stations integrated into power systems, then small stations are decentralized and provide electricity to remote mountainous rural areas, while simultaneously reducing the consumption of traditional biomass (and carbon dioxide emissions), local water
13 Renewables 2016. Global Status Report. Ren 21 Secretariat. P., 2017 , p. 160.
14 Renewable Energy in China. DBS Asia Insights. November 2016. https://www.dbs.com/.../pdfController. page?pdfpath=/.../pdf/ ... (access date 03.01.2018).
15 Ibid.
16 Ibid.
supply and irrigation and reduce energy losses in grids. In 2016-2020 years China will account for about 60% of the world's small hydropower generation capacity18.
The RES sector is developing in China within the framework of a well thought-out government policy that creates favorable financial and organizational conditions for construction and the subsequent operation of power facilities. The main direction of this policy is state subsidies, but for but business and not the population (as in poor countries). This is, first of all, subsidizing the feed-in tariff, placing it in competitive terms with the tariffs of traditional energy, and subsidizing the value-added tax, creating favorable conditions for investment. The "green" subsidies by the Chinese government were sent only in 2015, about 9 bln. US$ 19.
China has become an undisputed world leader in the development and production of equipment for the new energy sector. Five of the world's six largest solar panel manufacturers, and five of the ten largest firms developing and producing wind turbines, are Chinese. Companies from China control almost 90% of the world market of lithium batteries.
Chinese companies were the first to bring the cost of renewable energy to a competitive level. This allowed them to quickly occupy the niche of the world market. By 2016, more than a third of global foreign investment in the "new" energy sector was carried out by Chinese firms (with a pronounced tendency to increase this share). Investments are sent to all regions of the world, but most of them are incorporated into the Pan-Asian project "One belt, one way". Large potential of renewable energy sources of neighboring countries is connected, in particular, to the Chinese energy sector. First and foremost, this refers to the giant hydro-power projects implemented by Chinese firms in Laos and Myanmar, with the prospect of supplying "clean" energy to China.
In a rapidly industrialized and energy-deficient India, as in China, the growing energy shortage covered by imports can be a serious obstacle to further economic growth. Therefore, here again, authorities seek to extract energy from all possible sources, preferring renewable ones, which account for more than 60% of investment in energy. India accounts for 8% of global investment in RES. According to the installed capacity of alternative energy facilities, India is on the third place in the world (after the PRC and the USA)20. As in China, accelerated development of renewable energy is an important part of state plans and program documents, and for companies operating in this field was created optimal conditions for operation and investment. In 2015, renewable energy sources provided 13% of electricity in India, and by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan this figure should increase to 18%. By 2040, this share will increase, according to the forecast of the IEA, to 40% 21.
18 World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017.
19 Ibid.
20 Ibid, p. 416.
21 Ibid, p. 465.
By 2015, the structure of generation from renewable sources in India was skewed in favor of wind farms (about 80% of the total output). The reason was the lack of space for large solar farms in the country (agricultural development of Indian territory is more than 80%), low productivity of solar stations during the summer monsoon rains and high clouds, localization of wind stations outside agricultural land (on the coast or at sea). However, in connection with the progress of recent years in solar energy sector development will follow the path of preferential development of solar energy (the territory of India concentrates 19% of the global potential of solar energy). This development will be due to the widespread introduction of autonomous solar panels installed on the roofs of buildings. Their value fell significantly and the poor Indian village began to show effective demand for them. This is extremely important for inland areas where hundreds of millions of people still live without electricity and prepare food in a traditional way, breaking landscapes and throwing into the atmosphere a large amount of carbon dioxide. The same goal has the accelerated construction of decentralized small hydropower plants. Therefore, by 2040, the structure of electricity generation from renewable energy in India, according to the IEA, will change in favor of these two sources of generation: 53% will fall on heliostations, 37% - on wind, 8% - on small hydropower stations, 2% - on other22.
Japan, provided with its own sources of energy only by 6%, until recently was not among the world leaders of renewable energy. The turning point came after the accident at the nuclear power plant "Fukushima" in 2011. Then a hasty decision was made to shut down all nuclear power plants and the country almost completely switched to carbon energy, which sharply increased energy imports. Japan for the first time in its history faced a trade deficit. This also led to the fact that electricity in Japan became the most expensive in the world, which adversely affected the competitiveness of Japanese goods. Finally, carbon dioxide emissions exceeded the quotas set for Japan.
Under the circumstances, the Japanese authorities radically revised the energy policy. According to the new plans, the degree of self-sufficiency in energy resources should increase by 2030 to 25%23. This increase will occur exclusively at the expense of renewable sources (for lack of others). The share of renewable energy in 2015-2030 will be 70% of all investments in energy24. The nuclear power plants returned to operation will be disposed of as depreciation increases and new ones will not be built. As a result, the share of nuclear energy in the energy balance will drop from 30% to 20%25.
The structure of the renewable energy sector will be dominated by hydro -an helio-stations (9% and 8% of the country's total electricity generation by 2030,
22 Renewable Energy in India: Growth and Targets. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. 13 May 2015. cseindia.org /.../ Renewable% 20Energy% 20in% 20India% 20G ... (access date 03.012018).
23 Japan Energy Plan. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/.../ energy_plan_2015.p ... (access date 03.01.2018).
24 Ibid.
respectively, and the growth will be 1.5 and 7 times respectively in 2013). The share of wind and geothermal generation will be respectively 2% and 1% (growth compared to 2013, 4 times). By combustion of renewable biomass in 2030 will be generated 4% of energy (increased 3-fold compared with 2013)26.
With a slowly declining population and with rapidly growing energy efficiency, the total energy consumption in Japan will hardly increase, and its structure will on change in favor of RES. The sector of thermal energy will undergo only technological improvements (burning in a supercritical mode, carbon capture and storage, etc.). This will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 by 22% compared with 2013 27. The Republic of Korea has lagged behind the rest of the developed countries in the development of renewable energy. This sector provided in 2015 only 1% of total energy consumption and 2% of electricity generation in the country. The development of energy in South Korea has long been on the path to maximizing the return on capital and operating costs that only thermal and nuclear power plants could provide. Almost deprived of its own energy resources, the country came out on top in the world in terms of importing primary energy per capita, entered the first five world's top importers of oil, liquefied gas and coal and firmly ranks second in the world (after Australia) for carbon dioxide emissions per capita28.
Growing financial and environmental costs prompted the authorities to review in 2014 the National Energy Plan (National Energy Master Plan). In accordance with it, by 2035 it is planned to raise the share of RES in the energy balance to 11% 29. This increase will be due to a decrease in the share of thermal power. However, the main direction of progress in the country's energy economy will be the development of nuclear energy. Its proportion increases to 30% in power generation in 2015 to 54% in 2025 30. South Korea is the only country in the world where nuclear power not only dominates, but also plays an increasing role in the fuel and energy balance. The accident at the Fukushima NPP, unlike the other developed countries, did not affect government plans in this area.
Within the framework of the mentioned plan, stimulating conditions for the development of renewable energy have been created in the country. In addition to the feed-in tariff, this is the "Renewable energy portfolio" - a program that obliges electricity supply companies to supply at least 10% of electricity to the consumer from renewable energy sources by the year 2024, the carbon dioxide emissions trading scheme introduced for the first time in Asia, a program of state payments to companies that have achieved reduce its emissions31.
26 Japan Energy Plan. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/.../ energy_plan_2015.p ... (access date 03.01.2018).
27 Ibid.
28 Phillip Riley. The Future is Renewable. South Korea. May 2017. phillipriley.com.au/wp.../2017/.../IDR-Report-South-Korea.pd ... (access date 11/01/2018).
29 Ibid.
30 Ibid.
In Southeast Asia, the continuing energy-intensive industrial growth requires an accelerated (twice the world average) energy development. It is only the large centralized capacities of traditional energy that can provide the growing needs of industry. They will continue their development based on relatively cheap regional coals and gas. Along with this, in the region there is a large array of remote, inaccessible island and mountain areas, the integration of which into the power system is technically complicated and costly. This is the widest field for the development of alternative energy.
In the region, all types of RES are widely represented. Indonesia and the Philippines account for 40% and 20% of the world's geothermal potential, respectively. Indonesia and Malaysia, being the largest producer of palm oil, provide a wealth of accompanying biomass (15% of the territory covered by the Malaysian oil palm plantations)32. The rest of the region also occupies a leading position on the "exit" of renewable biomass from a unit of area. All countries (except Singapore) have the largest and still little developed hydro potential. The potential of solar and wind energy is also very high.
As in other fast-growing regions of Asia, Southeast Asian energy will grow using all possible options with an emphasis on renewable sources. According to the forecast of the IEA, investments in energy will be in the region in the period 2016-2040360 billion dollars, of which about 70% will be spent on renewable sources33. The agency forecasts an increase in the share of RES in the energy balance of Southeast Asia in the period 2016-2040 from 6% (without traditional biomass) to 23% 34.
In all countries of the region, the necessary conditions for the development of renewable energy have been created: feed-in tariff was introduced, a legal basis has been created, and access to financing has been ensured. The region is of great interest to investors: the total value of renewable energy projects being implemented in Southeast Asia amounted to $23 billion in 201535.
The development of alternative energy is also stimulated in Southeast Asia by an environmental factor. The nature of the region is extremely sensitive to the changing climate. Its further change promises disastrous consequences for many territories. Therefore, all states voluntarily committed themselves to a quarter reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the region by 2030. This can only be achieved by limiting and technical improvement of carbon energy, replacing traditional biomass with electricity and maximizing the use of "clean" energy sources.
The Southeast Asian countries are developing "green" energy, based on local "comparative advantages". Common features are the reduced importance
32 Renewable Energy Rises Across Asia. IRENA. Quarterly, 2017. sun-connect-news.org/.../IRENA_ Quarterly_2017_Q4.pdf (access date 11/01/2018).
33 World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA. P., 2017, p. 415.
34 Ibid, p. 432.
35 Outlook for Renewable Energy from an Asian Perspective. Asia Clean Energy Forum 2016. ADB, Manila, 9 June 2016. https://d2ocOihd6a5bt.cloudfront.net/.../1-Jason-Waldie- ...
of wind energy, the decline in the share of traditional biomass (from 24% in 2015 to 7% by 2035) and its replacement by modern RES36. Countries set themselves a different in scope and structure of the task. Power shortages the Philippines and Thailand have developed ambitious plans to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation, respectively, to 50% by 2040 and to 40% by 203637. Singapore and Brunei in the foreseeable future will remain almost entirely "carbon" (however, the densely built up and densely populated Singapore does not lag behind the general trend: here is completed the construction of a unique vertical solar power plant worth $3.45 billion, a wind station with a volume of investments of $0, 5 billion, and even a few small capacities on local biomass38). Indonesia plans to develop all types of renewable energy. This country will have 40% of investments in RES in the region in 2015204039. Rich in water resources, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos will develop mainly small and large hydraulic energy based on foreign investment with promising supplies of electricity for export. There are plans to turn Laos into a "battery" of South-East Asia within the framework of the unified ASEAN energy system being created. Analysis of long-term plans for the development of energy in the countries of the East shows that RES has begun to acquire the status of the most promising source of energy everywhere. This was promoted by the growing competitiveness of alternative energy technologies, the need to address the problem of environmental safety, numerous political initiatives that stimulate the development of green energy, and unhindered access to project financing. As a result, new markets for centralized and distributed electric generation based on RES appear in all regions of the East.
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