CC BY
21УДК 331. 5
DOI: 10.18384/2310-6646-2023-2-35-47
CONTRIBUTION OF TAJIK LABOR MIGRANTS TO THE ECONOMY OF OECD COUNTRIES AND TAJIKISTAN
A. Rakhmonov, V. Ledeneva, Sh. Akramov
Institute for Demographic Research - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS) ul. Fotievoy 6/1, Moscow 119333, Russian Federation
Abstract
Aim. To identify the channels and scale of emigration from Tajikistan to the OECD countries, as well as to determine the contribution of Tajik emigrants to the economy of Tajikistan and the OECD countries.
Methodology. During the research two methods were used: 1) the economic and statistical method; 2) the method of conducting interviews with experts.
Results. The article discusses the scale of emigration from Tajikistan to the EERS countries, internal and external factors that caused the reorientation of the flow of labor migrants from Tajikistan to a new direction - the OECD countries in the mid-2010s. As well as the economic contribution of labor migration from Tajikistan to the economy of the host countries by the method of assessing wages in GDP and to the economy of Tajikistan itself by the method of assessing the contribution of remittances to GDP.
Research implications. The conducted research expands the idea of emigration from Tajikistan to a new direction of the OECD country. The practical significance of the study is that certain provisions of the work can be used in the work of the authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan, the OECD countries, as well as the Russian Federation, when making decisions regarding labor migration and some other areas of the economy.
Keywords: emigration, remittances, Tajikistan, OECD, labor migration, GDP, Russia
ВКЛАД ТАДЖИКСКИХ ТРУДОВЫХ МИГРАНТОВ В ЭКОНОМИКУ СТРАН ОЭСР И ТАДЖИКИСТАНА
Рахмонов А. Х., Леденева В. Ю., Акрамов Ш. Ю.
Институт демографических исследований - обособленное подразделение Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра Российской академии наук (ИДИ ФНИСЦ РАН)
119333, г. Москва, ул. Фотиевой, д. 6, корп. 1, Российская Федерация Аннотация
Цель. Выявить каналы и масштабы эмиграции из Таджикистана в страны ОЭСР, а также определить вклад таджикских эмигрантов в экономику Таджикистана и стран ОЭСР. Процедура и методы. В ходе исследования были использованы два метода: 1) экономико-статистический метод; 2) метод проведения интервью с экспертами.
© CC BY Рахмонов А . Х. , Леденева В . Ю . , Акрамов Ш . Ю . , 2023.
Результаты. В работе рассматриваются масштабы эмиграции из Таджикистана в страны ОЭСР, внутренние и внешние факторы, обусловившие в середине 2010-х гг. переориентацию потока трудовых мигрантов из Таджикистана на новое направление - страны ОЭСР, а также экономический вклад трудовой миграции из Таджикистана в экономику принимающих стран по методу оценки зарплаты в ВВП и в экономику самого Таджикистана по методу оценки вклада денежных переводов в ВВП.
Теоретическая и/или практическая значимость. Проведённое исследование расширяет представление об эмиграции из Таджикистана в новое направление страны ОЭСР. Практическая значимость исследования состоит в том, что отдельные его положения могут быть использованы в работе органов власти Республики Таджикистан, стран ОЭСР, а также РФ при принятии решений относительно трудовой миграции и некоторых других сфер экономики.
Ключевые слова: эмиграция, денежные переводы, Таджикистан, страны ОЭСР, трудовая миграция, ВВП, Россия
Introduction
The main reasons for labor migration from the Republic of Tajikistan have socioeconomic and demographic conditionally. The development of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan in the post-Soviet period is accompanied by the crisis state of its labor market. Unemployment during this period reaches 30% of the total economically active population in the republic . In addition, the low wages of the employed population, which does not cover the cost of the consumer basket, is the cause of hidden unemployment . This situation generates poverty, the level of which, according to 2009, is 39%) of the total population . This indicator is the highest in the CIS countries [5].
The labor market of Tajikistan in the post-Soviet period is experiencing a deep crisis . The reason was that in the new conditions in the country, the problems of an economic and social nature have sharply worsened Industrial enterprises ceased to function, numerous state institutions were closed, the main branch of the economy - agriculture, as well as the sphere of transport and communications - were particularly affected . Russia and other CIS countries have become the main channels of emigration from Tajikistan [6].
But, in recent years, migration flows from Tajikistan have been reoriented to new directions and regions These changes are due to several economic and geopolitical factors The fall in the ruble exchange rate and the decline in wages in rubles, the tightening of migration policy in Russia and Kazakhstan partially forced labor migrants to look for new migration directions at the head of the OECD countries [1]. As a result, the trend of reorientation of the flow of labor migrants to new directions is gradually gaining strength . Given the volume of labor resources and the importance of Tajikistan in the Eurasian migration subsystem, the reorientation of the flow of labor migrants to new directions in the near future may be fraught with significant losses for the labor markets of Russia and Kazakhstan [5]
External factors of reorientation and the scale of emigration from Tajikistan to the OECD countries
Various crises in Russia, ranging from the currency crisis to COVID-19, as a result of which migrants from Tajikistan lost their jobs or their wages were reduced, as well as new sanctions from the EU and the United States against Russia caused the reorientation of Tajik emigrants from the Russian labor market to a new direction of labor emigration in the OECD countries The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) consists of 37 States, including most EU member States, as well as the United States, Canada, Japan and the Republic of Korea . The OECD member states account for about 60% of global GDP1 . In recent years, it is the OECD countries that are becoming new areas of labor emigration for citizens of Tajikistan . In addition to the external factor, internal factors, such as the popularization of the English language in Tajikistan among young people, high wages in OECD countries compared to Russia have influenced emigration in the OECD countries [4].
2001-2019 approximately 137 . 9 thousand citizens of Tajikistan left for the OECD countries (table 1)
Table 1
The scale and channels of emigration from Tajikistan to OECD countries in 2001-2019, people
USA Canada EU Republic of Korea and Japan
Green Card Lottery Immigration visas Non-immigration visas Refugees Immigration visas Refugees Schengen visa Refugees Educational program «Erasmus» Immigration visas
Since 2001 to 2005 423 333 10771 595 1340 410 - 2478 - 543
Since 2006 to 2010 813 528 11381 594 940 319 2449 2472 - 935
Since 2011 to 2018 4790 3062 23968 3618 520 485 28362 15832 70 3217
2019 1401 1067 4487 806 - 66 5367 3424 18 -
Total: 7427 4990 50607 5613 2800 1280 36178 24206 88 4695
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data2' 3' 4 5'6' 7 8
1 List of Member OECD Countries [Электронный ресурс]. Available at: https://www. oecd. org/about/members-and-partners (дата обращения: 23 .01.2021).
2 OECD data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://stats . oecd. org (дата обрашения: 03.04.2021).
3 The Data of the Korean Statistical Information Service [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www. kostat. go. kr/eng (дата обращения: 28.03 . 2021) .
4 Data on "Schengen Visa Statistics" by Countries [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://statistics . schengenvisainfo. com/ (дата обращения: 07.01.2021).
5 UNHCR Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www. unhcr. org (дата обращения: 23 .02. 2021) .
6 Data from the Canadian National Statistics Agency [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www12. statcan.gc.ca (дата обращения: 05 01 2021)
7 Data of the State Licensed Immigration Service US Green Card Service GmbH . Green Card Lottery Winners' Statistics [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www. green-card, com/winner-statistics (дата обращения: 28.07.2021).
8 Data from the US Department of State [Электронный ресурс] URL: https://travel state gov/content/travel/en/legal/ visa-law0/visa-statistics html (дата обращения: 13 06 2021)
Tajik migrants wentto OECD soontf ses by different channels. Based on the tab. 1 , we cow conclude ihotin the Umted Etates for 2001 - 2019, citizn ne rfTaj ikjsean most of ad travekd through non-immigration visas (tourist, business, educational, etc . ) - 64 . 6%, the green card lettery - Tcefugert -b 1.1 %, immigratkm . j%. To Cauadu.immigrction visas-
40%, refugees - 52%, etc . To European countries, the main channels of migration were the Schengen visa - 51. 8%, refugees - 30 .1%, etc . For 2001 - 2019. The inflow of migrants from Tajikistan to the Republic of Korea and Japan amounted to 4695 people .
S USA 13 European countries E3 Japan H Republic of Korea 0 Canada
Fig. 1. Geography of employment and settlement of emigrants from Tajikistan to the OECD countries in 1992-2018, %
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data1.
According to the OECD, among the OECD countries, Tajiks migrated most to Western and Eastern Europe - 51%, followed by the United States - 30%, then Canada - 8%, Japan -7% and Korea - 4% . Other OECD countries, such as Australia, Israel, Mexico, and Tajiks visited the least, for various reasons, either because of difficulties in emigration channels, or because of a shortage of jobs, or because of high requirements for emigrants to the labor markets of these countries .
In the Republic of Tajikistan, in addition to private agencies, there are also many State employment agencies. This means that the state ofTajikistanitself is interested in reorienting from Russia and Kazakhstan to search for new countries for the employment of its citizens . Among the OECD countries, the Republic of Tajikistan has now concluded an employment agreement with Poland, Turkey and the Republic of Korea. 2 Compared to Russia, OECD countries are interested in attracting and retaining migrants from Central Asian countries . For example, in Germany there is a law according to which, if foreign citizens who have graduated from a university in Germany, the government will give them 18 months to find a job in the country, after searching they can get a German work visa . 3
1 OECD data [Электронный ресурс]. URl: https://stats .oecd. org (дата обращения: 15.08.2021).
2 Шодмон Я . Минтруда: всё больше таджикистанцев ищут работу в Турции и Польше [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://rus .ozodi .org/a/29761680. html (дата обращения: 15 .02. 2022) .
3 Initiatives of Germany to Attract Foreign Students [Электронный ресурс] // Accreditation in Education. Information and Analytical Journal. URL: https://akvobr. ru/iniciativy_germanii_po_privlecheniyu_inostrannyh_studentov. html# (дата обращения: 02 09 2022)
Based on this, we can say that the OECD countries may soon become new areas of labor emigration for a large part of Tajik citizens .
Contribution of migrants from Tajikistan to the economy of OECD countries
The adaptation of migrants is accompanied by some difficulties . Job search is the main one, which usually takes several months . But as a result, most migrants find jobs . Many open their own businesses, primarily those who previously had their own business [10]. In adaptation to the OECD countries, including on their labor markets, first of all, Tajik citizens are primarily helped by other compatriots who live in these countries and the Tajik Diasporas in the OECD countries [4].
Migration from Tajikistan to the OECD countries is long-term, so based on this, we calculated the share of wages of Tajik migrants in the GDP of the recipient countries . The share of wages of Tajik migrants in the GDP of the OECD countries in 2019 was 0.007% . So far, this contribution is insignificant, but as the number of migrants focused on long-term and permanent migration increases, it will grow (table 2) .
Table 2
The share of wages of Tajik migrants in the GDP of recipient countries in 2019
Country Average salary of Tajik migrant Total number of migrants in 2019, thousand people Total nominal wages of the employed population in the country's economy for 2019, USD million Host countries ' GDP for 2019, billion USD Migrant earnings as a percentage of GDP, %
per month, USD per year, USD
Germany 2474,7 29696,4 26 772,1 3,861 0,02
Russia 393,4 4720,8 2652 12519,56 1,7 0,73
Canada 2800 33600 24 806,4 1,736 0,05
Turkey 280 3360 2,64 8,87 0,761 0,0012
Kazakhstan 205 2460 39 95,94 0,181 0,053
OECD 1770 21240 90 1911,6 28,9 0,007
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data2' 2' 3' 4 5.
In this table, we have reviewed the average salary of Tajik migrants in all recipient countries based on different sources for 2019 . We calculated the average salary of Tajik migrants in Germany based on the Tajik migrant blogger "BORODA TJ", who has been working in Germany for a long time6 . For Russia, we used data from "RIA NOVOSTI"7 . For Canada, we have compiled the average salary of Tajik migrants based on data from
OECD data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://stats . oecd. org (дата обращения: 18.02.2021) .
Федеральная служба государственнной статистики [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www. gks .ru (дата
обращения: 18.08.2021) .
World Bank Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://databank.worldbank. org (дата обращения: 07.06.2021) . Data from the Canadian National Statistics Agency [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www12. statcan.gc.ca (дата обращения: 13 05 2022)
Joshua Project Data [Электронный ресурс]. URl: https://joshuaproject. net (дата обращения: 15.09.2021) . BORODA TJ. Ойлик дар Германия ва дигар саволхо [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www.youtube . com/ watch?v=JErDvrmmfg8&t=86s (дата обращения: 13 .05 .2022).
Lisitsyn P. Tajiks in Russia Receive Less than Other CIS Migrants // RIA Novosti [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https:// sn. ria. ru/20170815/1500391836. html (дата обращения: 24.06.2021) .
2
4
6
reviews of migrants from CIS countries in the field of handymen1. For Turkey, we used the reviews of several Tajik migrants who work in Turkey2 . For the OECD countries, the average wage and the total number of migrants were determined based on different sources
In our work, we first found the average monthly salary, then multiplied it by 12 months and got the average salary for the year. Then, to find the total nominal salary of the country's population employed in the economy, we need to multiply the total inflow of Tajik migrants in 2019 by the average salary of Tajik migrants for the year.
The share of wages in the country's GDP (wage intensity of GDP) is equal to the ratio of the amount of the national salary of the population employed in the economy to the size of the national GDP.
Salary intensity of GDP=1/Salary output in the economy (SOIE),
where SOIE = GDP/wages of the employed in the economy.
For example, for Germany, GDP for the year is equal to 3 . 861 trillion us dollars, wages of employed Tajik migrants in the economy = 772 1 million us dollars The salary return will be equal to 5001 (3 .861 billion / 772.1 million) USD . Wage intensity of GDP (Share of wages in GDP) = 0,02% ((1/5001) *100%) . That is, in 2019, the earnings of Tajik migrants amounted to 0 . 02% of Germany's GDP.
As a result, it was found that the share of wages of Tajik migrants in the GDP of the OECD countries is insignificant, it is 6 times less than in Russia, but the number of Tajik migrants in the Russian Federation is 20 times more than in the OECD countries All of this suggests higher incomes for Tajik migrants in the OECD countries, due to their high qualifications, and will ultimately only contribute to the growth of long-term strategies among migrants . For example, the average wage of a Tajik migrant in OECD countries is $ 1,770.
The impact of remittances from Tajik migrants from OECD countries on the economy of Tajikistan
After gaining independence, a civil war broke out in the Republic of Tajikistan, and the consequence of the civil war led to the destruction of infrastructure, factories, enterprises, as well as large outflows of refugees [2] Remittances of labor migrants have become the main revenues of the country's budget [9].
Tajikistan is one of the leading countries in the world with a high share of migrant remittances in the structure of gross domestic product For example, at the beginning of the global crisis, in 2008 (table 3), 49% of Tajikistan's GDP was accounted for by migrant remittances [4] Of course, in this situation, Tajikistan is very dependent on the external environment, the demand for migrant labor in the world labor market, the stability of the national currencies of the recipient countries of Tajik migrants in relation to the US dollar, and the foreign policy situation
From the OECD countries, Tajik migrants transferred about 1 553 billion US dollars to their homeland in 2010-2018 (table 3) .
1 Work in Canada. Jobs and Vacancies Abroad [Электронный ресурс]. URl: https://www.youtube . com/watch?v=IYpyNa-o2jQ&t=43s (дата обращения: 13.09.2021).
2 Zaxar Tj . Турцияда ойлик квартира кор чансумай [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www.youtube .com/ watch?v=KG_NDrqfVic&t=177s (дата обращения: 18.08.2021).
V4V
Table 3
Remittances of Tajik migrants from the OECD countries to the economy of Tajikistan in 2010-2018
Year Volume of remittances to Tajikistan, USD million Share of Tajikistan's GDP from remittances, % Volume of remittances from OECD countries to Tajikistan, USD million Remittances from OECD countries to GDP Tajikistan, % Ratio of inflows of remittances from OECD countries to exports of goods and services in Tajikistan Ratio of inflows of remittances from OECD countries to net foreign direct investment in Tajikistan
2010 2305,8 36 141 2,5 0,17 1,5
2011 3059,9 42 188 2,9 0,18 1,3
2012 3739,5 42 231 3,0 0,18 1,0
2013 4154,3 44 237 2,8 0,25 0,8
2014 3853,5 37 215 2,4 0,26 0,7
2015 2258,6 29 129 1,7 0,16 0,3
2016 1867,4 27 105 1,5 0,12 0,4
2017 2237,2 31 125 1,7 0,11 0,7
2018 2183,3 29 182 2,4 0,16 0,8
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data1.
In 2010-2018, an average of 2 . 3% of Tajikistan's GDP was made up of remittances from Tajik labor migrants from the OECD country
As we noted, migrant remittances play a large role in Tajikistan's GDP In 2012, 3 . 01% of Tajikistan's GDP were remittances from migrants from OECD countries .
Remittances from Tajik labor migrants from OECD countries to Tajikistan in 2010 were 1. 5 times higher than Tajikistan's net foreign direct investment .
Russia remains the main destination for the outflow of Tajikistan's surplus labor resources, respectively, money transfers mainly come from there . The peak of remittances of migrant workers to the economy of Tajikistan was in 2013, when 4,154 billion US dollars were transferred by migrant workers to their homeland2 ., which amounted to about half of Tajikistan's GDP - 49 . 2% . A lot of remittances from Tajik labor migrants also come from OECD countries, but so far the values of the OECD countries are not comparable with the data for Russia, since today a large share of migrants from Tajikistan come from Russia, but with the increase in the reorientation of the flow of Tajik migrants to the OECD countries, this share will grow and have an increasing impact on the markets labor of the host countries .
Among OECD countries (figure 2) Tajiks sent the most money home from Western and Eastern European countries (54 . 5%), followed by the United States and Canada (14 . 2% and 2 4%), followed by other OECD countries (28 9%)
The impact of remittances of Tajik migrants from OECD countries on the well-being of the population of the Republic of Tajikistan
Table 4 shows some data that give an idea of the impact of remittances on the welfare of the population, in particular, an increase in the level of average per capita income of the population, labor income, and an increase in the country's GDP, as well as a decrease in poverty.
1 World Bank Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://databank.worldbank. org (дата обращения: 28.10.2021) .
2 Ульмасов Р. У Денежные переводы внешних трудовых мигрантов [Электронный ресурс]. URL: eurazvitiye .org/ publication/20141218 (дата обращения: 03 .05 . 2021) .
■ European countries @ Other OECD countries B USA H Canada
Fig. 2. Remittances of Tajik migrants from OECD countries to Tajikistan in 2010-2018, %
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data1.
Table 4
Someso cio-economic parameters of Tajikistan in 2010-20181
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
The volume of remittances from OECD countries, millionUS dollars I'll 188 231 237 21 ¡5 119 105 120 188
Per Capita total income of the population, «somoni» per month 190,8 225,62 258,81 293,58 323,64 297,61 351,14 374,12 409,78
Poverty rate, % 39,6 42,0 37,4 34,3 32,0 31,3 30,3 29,5 27,4
Inflation rate, 6,4 12,42 5,79 5,03 6,07 5,78 5,97 7,31 3,84
Average monthly labor income of the population, «somoni» per month 77,5 154,27 174,9 202,79 231,7 244,48 252,40 272,55 290,20
Average number of Tajik migrants in OECD countries, persons 9325 9325 9325 9325 9325 9325 9325 9325 9325
1 World Bank Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://databank.worldbank.org (дата обращения: 25 .03 .2021).
TIT
End of table 1
GDP, million "somoni" 24707,1 30071,1 36163,1 40525,5 45606,6 48408,7 54491,0 61093,6 68844,0
GDP growth, % 6,5 7,4 7,5 7,4 6,7 6,0 6,9 7,1 7,3
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data 12•3•4 5"6 7•8 9•10 .
To quantify the impact of remittances from an OECD country on some socio-economic parameters of Tajikistan, we calculated the correlation coefficients presented in table 5 .
Table 5
Matrix of correlation coefficients of dependence between some socio-economic indicators in the Republic of Tajikistan in 2010-2018
Remittances Per capita Poverty Inflation Number of Tajik
from OECD total income rate, % rate, % migrants in
countries to of the OECD countries,
Tajikistan, USD population, person
million somoni
Remittances from OECD
countries to Tajikistan, 1
USD million
Per capita total income of the population, somoni -0,193 1
Poverty rate, % 0,308 -0,943 1
Inflation rate, % -0,059 -0,484 0,658 1
Number of Tajik mi-
grants in OECD coun- 0,119 -0,654 0,516 0,138 1
tries, persons
Sourse: compiled by the authors based on data in tab . 4.
Analyzing the values presented in this table, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. The obvious fact is that there is a close inverse relationship between per capita income and the level of poverty: an increase in income leads to a decrease in the share of the poor population
1 Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis Crisis [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://fred. stlouisfed .org/series/TJKPCPIPCHPT (дата обращения: 12.12. 2021).
2 World Bank data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://databank.worldbank. org (дата обращения: 28.10.2021) .
3 National Report on Human Development in the Republic of Tajikistan [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://hdr. undp. org/sites/default/files/tajikistan_rus2013 .pdf (дата обращения: 19.01.2022).
4 OECD Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://stats . oecd. org (дата обращения: 03.04.2021) .
5 The Data of the Korean Statistical Information Service [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://www.kostat. go. kr/eng/ (дата обращения: 28 03 2021)
6 Data On "Schengen Visa Statistics" by Countries [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://statistics . schengenvisainfo. com (дата обращения: 07.01.2021).
7 UNHCR Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www. unhcr. org (дата обращения: 23 .02. 2021) .
8 Data from the Canadian National Statistics Agency [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www12. statcan.gc.ca (дата обращения: 05 01 2022)
9 Data of the State Licensed Immigration Service US Green Card Service GmbH . Green Card Lottery Winners' Statistics [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www. green-card, com/winner-statistics (дата обращения: 28.07.2021).
10 Data from the US Department of State [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://travel. state . gov/content/travel/en/legal/ visa-law0/visa-statistics html (дата обращения: 13 06 2021)
2 . There is a fairly close direct relationship between the level of poverty and the level of inflation; in this case, it is obviously a mutual influence, since, on the one hand, inflation "accelerates" prices in the domestic market, which leads to an increase in the level of poverty, on the other hand, with a high proportion of the poor population, consumption decreases, which allows you to adjust inflation .
3 . Labor emigration, although to a small extent, reduces the level of inflation and the level of poverty (weak feedback), this is quite understandable, since in fact there is a decrease in tension in the national labor market due to labor emigration to OECD countries, and migrant remittances are the source of a significant share of the total income of the population .
4 . There is a weak direct link between remittances and the level of poverty.
It would seem that this is an illogical result, but in this case, the relationship may be indirect: remittances, on the one hand, contribute to reducing the level of poverty of the population, but on the other hand, they are mainly used for personal consumption of households, on the national scale, the problem of the development of the economy of Tajikistan is not solved: the growth rate of the number of jobs is significantly inferior to the growth of the population, the development of new large-scale industries does not actually occur, therefore, labor emigration is actually the only way to contain the tension in the labor market This leads us to an important conclusion about the dual role of remittances: the positive aspect is to reduce short - term risks to the development of the national economy, the negative-to maintain structural imbalances in the long term
Remittances to Tajikistan through official channels from emigrants who left for work in 2013 amounted to about 4,154 billion US dollars, which is several times higher than the republican budget1 . Accordingly, this makes the further development of Tajikistan's economy very dependent on them Transfers are mainly made in dollars, which is the reason for the high dollarization of the country's economy. In such a situation, it is difficult for the state to pursue a macroeconomic policy, since the instruments that stabilize the situation in the country's financial market are weaker than the flow of dollars transferred by emigrants Thus, on the one hand, money transfers cover the negative balance of payments balance, and, on the other hand, the National Bank of Tajikistan loses control over the process of macroeconomic and financial stability. 2
Conclusion
In recent years, migration flows from Tajikistan have been reoriented to new directions and regions These changes are due to several economic and geopolitical factors The fall in the ruble exchange rate and the decline in wages in rubles, the tightening of migration policy in Russia and Kazakhstan partially forced labor migrants to look for new migration directions at the head of the OECD countries . As a result, the trend of reorientation of the flow of labor migrants to new directions is gradually gaining strength Given the volume of labor resources and the importance of Tajikistan in the Eurasian migration subsystem, the reorientation of the flow of labor migrants to new directions in the near future may be fraught with significant losses for the labor markets of Russia and Kazakhstan
Remittances from Tajik migrants play a significant role in the socio-economic development of the country as a whole, as well as individual households, allowing them to meet their basic needs in the purchase of food, durable goods, investments in the
1 World Bank Data [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://databank.worldbank.org (дата обращения: 25 .03 .2021).
2 Рязанцев С. Трудовая миграция из Центральной Азии в Россию в контексте экономического кризиса [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://globalaffairs . ru/articles/trudovaya-migracziya-iz-czentralnoj-azii-v-rossiyu-v-kontekste-ekonomicheskogo-krizisa (дата обращения: 10.10.2021)
construction and repair of housing, and investment in the development of education for children . This is the positive impact of migrant remittances on the country's economy. However, on the other hand, we cannot ignore the negative impact of the lack of a long-term development strategy, when only current needs are actually met, and new, hightech jobs are created slowly and in insufficient numbers, not keeping up with population growth . The country is becoming a hostage to the changing external environment: demand for foreign labor, crisis phenomena in recipient countries
Despite Tajikistan's attempts to regulate labor migration more and more actively based on bilateral agreements with OECD countries, Russia still remains attractive for Tajik labor migrants The advantages of Russia are the absence of a language barrier, no need to obtain a visa and work permit, a common mentality, and prospects for obtaining citizenship . However, the rigidity of the migration policy and the fall in wages in Russia may be negative factors that will contribute to the reversal of some of the flows of labor migrants from Tajikistan in favor of the OECD countries [10]
Статья поступила в редакцию 18.01.2023.
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INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov - Cand. Sci. (Economy), Senior Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research, Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS), e-mail: abubak. 93@mail. ru; ORCID: 0000-0001-9924-5857
Victoria Yu. Ledeneva - Dr Sci (Sociology), Chief Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research, Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS),
e-mail: vy. [email protected]; ORCID: 0000-0002-9478-2917
Sharif Yu. Akramov - Cand. Sci. (Sociology), Leading researcher, Institute for Demographic Research, Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS), e-mail: sharif_akram@rambler. ru
ISSN 2072-8549
2023/№ 2
ИНФОРМАЦИЯ ОБ АВТОРАХ
Рахмонов Абубакр Хасанович - кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Института демографических исследований - обособленного подразделения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра Российской академии наук (ИДИ ФНИСЦ РАН);
e-mail: abubak. [email protected]; ORCID: 0000-0001-9924-5857
Леденева Виктория Юрьевна - доктор социологических наук, главный научный сотрудник Института демографических исследований - обособленного подразделения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра Российской академии наук (ИДИ ФНИСЦ РАН);
e-mail: vy.ledeneva@yandex. ru; ORCID: 0000-0002-9478-2917
Акрамов Шариф Юлдашевич - кандидат социологических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института демографических исследований - обособленного подразделения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра Российской академии наук (ИДИ ФНИСЦ РАН); e-mail: sharif_akram@rambler ru
Rakhmonov A. Kh . Ledeneva V. Yu . , Akramov Sh . Yu . Contribution of Tajik Labor Migrants to the Economy of OECD Countries and Tajikistan. In: Bulletin of Moscow Region State University. Series: Economics, 2023, no. 2. pp. 35-47. DOI: 10.18384/2310-6646-2023-2-35-47
Рахмонов А. Х. , Леденева В . Ю . , Акрамов Ш . Ю . Contribution of Tajik Labor Migrants to the Economy of OECD Countries and Tajikistan // Вестник Московского государственного областного университета. Серия: Экономика. 2023. № 2. С. 35-47. DOI: 10.18384/2310-6646-2023-2-35-47
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