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CHINA'S INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA
G. Jumadilova, Zh. Amzenova, S. Serzhznkyzy, Zh.Bagitzhanova L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University jumadilova82@mail. ru
The interests of the People S Republic of China in Central Asia was comparatively analyzed, the strategically important interests were defined.
Key words: Central Asia, China, Strategic Interests, Geopolitics, Analysis.
The political significance of Central Asia as the geopolitical center of the Eurasian continent (Heartland) is increasing due to the shift of the center of gravity of the global development to the Asia-Pacific region. This unique, large region and China are closely linked to historical and geographical reasons. In recent years China has been dynamically developing cooperation with this region. Over the past decade, China has been closely cooperating with Central Asian countries, particularly its neighbors. The range of Chinese interests includes security, politics, and economic and cultural development.
In Beijing, Central Asia is believed to play a strategic role in securing national security in China. Along with Russia, this region has been operating the function of background for China, in particular, the US focus of military attention on the Pacific Ocean is causing Beijing's concern and le to the rise of competition between the two centers of power in the region. Based on the analysis, the "problem tree" analysis was used to present China's interests in Central Asia in a clear and comparative way. As a result, China's interests were grouped as follows:
The interests of China in Central Asia
Table 1. Matrix on China's interests in Central Asia
Territorial Economic Military Geopolitical The interests of third countries Resource Fight against terrorism Result
Territorial X +/- +/- 0 0 +/- 0 2
Economic 0 X +/- + +/- + +/- 4,5
Military +/ +/- X +/- +/- x X 3
Geopolitical + + +/- X +/- +/- +/- 5
The interests of third countries 0 +/- +/- +/- X 0 +/- 2
Resource +/ + X +/- + X 0 3
Fight against terrorism 0 +/- + +/- +/- 0 X 2,5
The results of the Matrix on China's interests in Central Asia
Territorial 2
Economic 4,5
Military 3
Geopolitical 5
The interests of third countries 2
Resource 3
Fight against terrorism 2,5
1. Geopolitics: Located in the center of Eurasia, enhances the strategic importance of Central Asian states for China; Strengthening Chinese influence in the region;
2. Economic: The most dynamic direction of foreign trade and economic partnership; investment activities - the ability to influence the economy of the CA countries (mainly in the fields of oil, mining, telecommunications, transport infrastructure); use of transit potential of the region;
3. Resource: rich in natural resources - Kazakhstan - oil; Turkmenistan - gas;
4. Military: Avoidance of military alliances against China
5. Combating Terrorism and Extremism: Afghanistan - Strengthening of the Taliban Movement (For example, the 1992 war in Tajikistan); Uzbek Islamic Movement (UIS) and the Islamic Movement of Hizb-ut-Tahrir aim to set up a Caliphate from Mongolia to the coasts of the Caspian Sea. This project also includes the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous center.
6. Third States interests: US interests; Russian interests;
7. Territorial: border security - the West Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Territory (XUAR).
One of the strategic prerequisites for the policy of the Chinese state in Central Asia is the agenda of the PRC's domestic policy - the development of western regions of the country.
This has many political and geopolitical reasons. China's western regions are much closer to Central Asia than others. For example, three-quarters of Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region's trade is coming to Kazakhstan. The Chinese program documents pay special attention to the development of western regions of Central Asia. To achieve these goals, Beijing is ready to use many of its tools and intruments. "The practical measures and excellent prospects of the Silk Road Economic Belt together with the Silk Road of the XXI Century" were issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry and states "we should use the unique geographical advantages of Xinjiang as a way to the West through deepening partnerships and exchanges with Central Asia, South and West Asia, building a transport network, business logistics and culture, education and science centers."
China's economic presence in Central Asia is systematic and comprehensive every year. China is pursuing its economic policy in three main directions. One is foreign trade. Foreign trade is one of the most dynamic areas of economic cooperation between Central Asian countries and China. The top three importers of the Republic of Kazakhstan are Russia, China and the United States in October 2017. In October 2017, goods imported from China to Kazakhstan amounted to $ 3789,727.0 thousand [1]. Kazakhstan's commodity turnover as of October 2017 amounts to 6 675 375,20 thousand US dollars, including: import - 2 661 500,20 (39,9%), export - 4 015 875,0 (60,1%) [2]. Kazakhstan's exports to China are chemicals, raw materials, petroleum products and oil, and imported goods and equipment, iron and steel products, construction materials, consumer goods, etc. According to Chinese statistical data, the trade turnover between China and Kyrgyzstan in January-October 2017 has increased by $ 1 billion 289.4 million (1.5 times). Total exports to China amounted to $ 48 million, while imports - $ 1 billion 241.4 million [3]. The Kyrgyz trade is dominated by the export of raw materials and the import of finished products in the Chinese market. According to Eler Ganiev, Minister of Foreign Economic Relations, Investment and Trade, at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Uzbek-Chinese Intergovernmental Commission in March 2017, the trade turnover between Uzbekistan and China is expected to reach up to 10 billion by 2020. In particular, commodity turnover between Uzbekistan and China in March 2017 exceeded 4.2 billion [4]. The foreign trade between Tajikistan and China is small compared to other countries.
Based on this, the following conclusions may be drawn. While Kazakhstan maintains such tendencies in the foreign trade structure with China, it is difficult to export raw materials and export dependence on Chinese goods because cheap Chinese goods do not allow the development of the national processing industry and production of finished products. Talking about Kyrgyzstan, the imbalance in export and import operations, in particular the negative trade with China, will increase its dependence on China as its main trading partner. Considering that the development of Western territories, in particular the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and the entry into the markets of Russia and continental Europe (Eurasia), relate to China's economic interests, its trade expansion will only grow.
As for exports, China has become a major market for products from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Thus, China's share in Turkmenistan's exports is currently 68%. Moreover, it should be noted that Ashgabat exports to China consist only of transportation of hydrocarbons. As for Kazakhstan, its export to China is 15%. Oil and gas transportation is predominant, but in general, Kazakhstan exports are much more diversified than Turkmen exports. China is the second major export partner for Uzbekistan.
The lending system plays an important role in ensuring China's accession to Central Asian markets. These projects are relatively low-interest financing, but the peculiarity of such loans is the use of Chinese materials, equipment or labor. Additionally, conditions such as
transferring shares in a business, applying a sharing agreement, are imposed. The use of these practices will maximize the use of Chinese production resources and the share of business in the business will gradually widen China's economic presence in certain sectors of the Central Asian economy.
As an opportunity to influence the economic policies of the Central Asian countries, I would like to mention one more investment activity. Direct investment of China into the economies of Central Asian countries can not be called a serious one. It should be noted that China is rapidly increasing its investment presence in Central Asia. First of all, it concerns the oil and gas industry and the mining industry. Along with the interest in energy, the PRC draws on the economy of Central Asian countries, such as telecommunications and transport infrastructure. In implementing its regional projects, Beijing uses a wide range of tools, channels and financing schemes. The majority of the funding is allocated on a bilateral basis (direct investments, loans, soft loans, grants), and other financial resources through international financial institutions and organizations (ADB, SCO). The latest example of Beijing's broader action in Central Asia was the expansion of intensive economic cooperation between China and Kazakhstan. During the SCO summit in Astana on June 8-9, 2017, the parties signed 22 commercial agreements worth $ 7 billion. According to the agreement, China is ready to invest in the development of agro-chemical cluster of Kazakhstan and a number of projects in the free economic zone in the Atyrau region. In addition, Chinese Hydrochina Corporation and Samruk-Energo Kazakhstan Holding signed a memorandum on the construction of a small hydroelectric power plant and a wind power plant construction project in Almaty region. Some time ago, in mid-May, during the first visit by the head of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirzoev to Beijing, several economic agreements worth $ 20 billion were signed. These agreements envisage the cooperation between the two countries in the gas and chemical and hydropower sectors, as well as the construction of a synthetic liquid fuel plant and a mid-term contract for the supply of natural gas to China.
Another priority for China is energy security. That is why Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are rich in energy resources, have a great importance for the state. China's energy sector includes: minerals, oil, gas, exploration, pipelines, roads, routes, etc. For Beijing, which seeks to diversify its sources of resources, the importance of one of the stocks of raw materials such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and Russia in Central Asia is growing. In terms of China's imports of oil, Central Asia is limited in comparison with the Middle East. According to BP's annual report, as of the end of 2015, Kazakhstan's proven oil reserves are estimated at 30 billion barrels (global share of 1.8%), and 0.9 trillion cubic meters of gas (0.5% in the world share). About 70% of Kazakhstan's oil reserves are concentrated in the western regions, including Kashagan - one of the largest oil fields discovered during the last 40 years, the 9th in the world. It is difficult to define the actual oil production in Kazakhstan owned by the Chinese, however, according to Forbes.kz, the schedule of oil companies with Chinese participation in the territory of Kazakhstan will be shown. Many oil industry experts recognize the truth of this chart.
Table-1. Chinese companies operating in Kazakhstan and Chinese shares in these companies [6].
Company name Chinese share Company name Chinese share
OJSC CNPC-Aktobemunaigas 94,47% PrikaspianPetroleumKompani LLP 100%
JSC Mangistaumunaigas 50% SagyzPetroleumCompany LLP 100%
JSC PetroKazakhstanKumkolResorses 67% Embavedoyl LLP 100%
JV Kazgermunai LLP 50% AdayPetroleumCompany LLP 50%
JSC TorgayPetroleum 50% JSC RD KazMunaiGas 11%
Bozachi Operating LLP (Bozachi Severny) 75% KazahoilAktobe LLP 25%
OJSC Karazhanbasmunay 50% Karakudykmunay LLP 50%
JV KuatAmlonMunai 100% JV Arman LLP 25%
JSC CNPC-AiDanMunai 100% Zhambai LLP 12,5%
Sazankurak LLP 100% Lancaster Petroleum JSC 87,96%
Potential Oil LLP 100% Emir Oil LLP (in process) 100%
As can be seen from the table above, the share of Chinese companies in the top 22 companies is 100%, and in eight more than 50%.
As for Turkmenistan, CNPC announced on May 24, 2016, that the company transported through the Central Asia-China main gas pipeline network in 2009-2016 with a total volume of 138.6 billion m3 of natural gas [7].
Central Asia-China line of gas pipelines, crossing the borders of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, crosses Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and crosses the Chinese border at Horgos checkpoint. It consists of 3 parallel lines with a combined capacity of 55 billion m3 / year. It is planned to complete the 4th network by 2020.
In the first quarter of 2016, China transported 10.6 billion m3 of gas through the Central Asia-China pipeline. [7] Turkmenistan plans to consider China as its main partner in the gas export market and to increase its exports. In 2017, Turkmenistan plans to increase gas exploration by 9% to 83.8 billion m3, including 48 billion cubic meters of gas exports. [7]
China's interests in Central Asia are widening due to the spread of religious extremism and terrorism. Afghanistan is of particular concern. Terrorist groups and drug traffickers in Afghanistan remain a major threat to the Central Asian region. Despite the efforts of the international community, Afghanistan is one of the main refugees for international terrorists. At the same time the actions of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan are causing great concern.
Two religious groups are active in the Ferghana Valley: the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Hizb ut-Tahrir groups. Hizb ut-Tahrir is trying to establish a caliphate that extends from Mongolia to the coast of the Caspian Sea. According to this scheme, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region also includes the caliphate. There are reports that Uyghur separatists will be trained in Afghanistan, with a total area of 25 kilometers. In general, terrorist movements can be a major cause of instability in Central Asia and in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
There are also external players in the Central Asian region. Particular attention should be paid to the US policy aimed at eliminating the PRC as a major military, political and economic competitor at the regional and global levels. China and Russia, through the mechanisms that do not involve the Central Asian states, to try to control and, thus, to isolate players other than the regional integration processes. As for the position of Russia as one of the major players in the region, cooperation between the region and Russia will be focused on strengthening security, oil and gas and water energy projects in the energy sector, strengthening integration institutions of the EAEU. It is also one of the priorities of Russian policy - to ensure stability in the region, to maintain mutually beneficial, friendly relations and to prevent unions and associations that are contrary to Russian interests. It would be a mistake not to mention the European Union among other geopolitical players who are interested in the region. The European Union is partnering with the countries of Central Asia, establishing partnerships and
partnerships in many areas. It should not be forgotten that the region plays a crucial role in the resource potential of the EU and the diversification of energy supplies.
One of the most important issues in Chinese projects is border security. It has two key issues: maintaining the stability of frontier territories, ensuring security and economic prosperity of the peoples of the region, as well as by promoting peace and stability on the border, a friendly and good neighborhood policy.
The security issue in the western Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), which is home to China's Uighur minority, is alarming. Uighurs have sought autonomy and independence for several decades. The uprising was suppressed, and autonomy supporters were declared separatists. Today, the Uighurs do not hesitate to get the idea of gaining independence and they expect the Central Asian countries to support their problems. According to statistics, currently more than 300,000 Uighurs live in Central Asia, of which 210,000 live in Kazakhstan, 46,000 in Kyrgyzstan and 30,000 in Uzbekistan. The joint efforts of the Uighur Diasporas to implement the idea of autonomy living on both sides of the frontier are a matter of concern to the Chinese government because of the risk of collapse in the country. China hopes that the signing of the Treaty on the Strength of Peace and Good-Neighborly Relations between the SCO Member States will limit and stop Uighur diaspora's desire to support Central Asian countries.
To determine the most important interests of China in the region, a matrix was determined by the levels of impact on one of the problem solving. According to the analysis, one can see the geopolitical interests of China in all of its activities in Central Asia. Among the most important issues in the region are economic and resource interests. However, the main reason behind these interests and the underlying cause is that there is a strategic geopolitical purpose.
Links
1.http://stat.gov.kz/getImg?id=ESTAT209847
2.http://stat.gov.kz/getImg?id=ESTAT105723
3.http://ru.ce.cn/
4. https://stat.uz/ru/
5. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf
6.https://forbes.kz/process/probing/v_rk_rabotayut_22_neftyanyie_kompanii_s_kitayskim_uc
hastiem
7.https://neftegaz.ru/news/view/149466-Kitay-poluchil-1386-mlrd-m3-gaza-iz-Turkmenistana-po-seti-gazoprovodov-Tsentralnaya-Aziya-Kitay
