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(Saransk) conference: XVI Makarkin scientific readings. Innovative tendencies, socio-economic and legal problems of interaction in the international space Saransk, March 26, 2016. Organizers: Mordovian Humanitarian Institute.
УДК 001.201
Sokolova A.
students Sattorova R.
students Byambazh A. students
2 course, Faculty of International Finance Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow Соколова А. В. студент 2 курса Сатторова Р.А. студент 2 курса Бямбажав А. студент 2 курса факультет "Международные финансы " Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФ
Россия, г. Москва ANALYSIS OF THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY
Annotation. This article examines Russian and foreign models of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an organization , which are used both for long and short terms. The feasibility study of models was carried out on the example of a particular enterprise, a comparative analysis of their use is presented and the models most suitable for forecasting the probability of a given enterprise in the future are identified.
Keywords: bankruptcy, forecasting, comparative analysis.
Financial analysis of enterprises plays a great role nowadays, since competitiveness of a company, its profitability, ability to attract borrowed funds and, in general, future existence depends on overall financial condition of a given enterprise .
During financial crisis, many organizations are experiencing problems, and in such circumstances, forecasting the likelihood of bankruptcy is crucially important. Detection of unfavorable directions of an enterprise development, identification of factors leading to bankruptcy, and timely detection of need to forecast it can allow management of an organization, that has financial difficulties, to identify the reasons and develop a program to improve the financial condition of a company and to overcome the financial crisis and avoid bankruptcy.Nevertheless, there practically no methods that would predict the unfavorable outcome with a high degree of reliability.
Before considering various methods for assessing the likelihood of bankruptcy, it is necessary to get acquainted with the very concept of "bankruptcy". According to the Federal Law No. 127-FZ "On Bankruptcy" dated 26.10.2002, bankruptcy is understood as the inability of the debtor to fully satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations, payment of severance pay and (or) remuneration of labor Persons, who are working or have worked under an employment contract, and (or) inability to fulfill the obligation to pay mandatory payments [1].
Worldwide, most often under bankruptcy is understood the financial crisis, that is, when a firm cannot fulfill its current obligations. In addition, the enterprise may experience both economic crisis and management crisis. Proceeding from this, different methods of forecasting the probability of bankruptcy can actually predict various types of crises.
In the Russian and foreign economic literature several different assessment methods and mathematical models are proposed to check the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises.
If we consider foreign models of assessing the risk of bankruptcy, then we should consider the following circumstances:
1) In native publications, where exist difficulties of translation and efforts are made to "adopt" models to unstable, periodically changing Russian reporting , as well as a number of concepts, interpreted differently be authors, various terminology and the procedure for calculating the factors that are considered in models are used.
2) Foreign models of assessing the financial condition of a company may not always be suitable for assessing the bankruptcy of Russian enterprises, so they must be used really carefully. Foreign models were based on the data of the organizations of those states where they were created, so they may not fully reflect the real financial condition of the Russian enterprise due to such differences as: inflation factors, different capital structure, differences in information and legislative base.
3) In this article, we consider the models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of the following foreign authors: E. Altman and R. Tuffler. Just to compare Russian and foreign models of bankruptcy forecasting, we will take the following Russian authors: O. P. Zaitsev, G. V. Savitskaya, and G.V. Davydova and A. Yu. Belikova (scientists of the Irkutsk State Economic Academy).
4) More often, majority of models for bankruptcy forecasting usually include from two to seven key indicators that characterize the financial condition of an enterprise. The general view and methodology for calculating bankruptcy forecasting models are presented in Table 1.
Models and calculation formulas Indicators
2-factor model of the Altman Z-score: Z= - 0,3877 - 1,0736*K1 + 0,0579*K2 K1 - Current assets / Current liabilities; K2 - Loan proceeds / Total liabilities
5-factor model of the Altman Z-score: Z=1,2*K1+1,4*K2+3,3*K3+ 0,6*K4+1,0*K5 K1 - Working capital / Total assets; K2 - Retained earnings / Total assets; K3 - Earnings before interest and taxes / Total assets; K4 - Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities; K5 - Sales / Total assets.
4-factor model of Taffler and Tisshaw Z=0,53*K1+0,13 *K2+0,18 * K3+0,16*K4 K1 - Profit before tax / Current liabilities; K2 - Current assets / Total liabilities; K3 - Current liabilities / Total assets; K4 - 'no credit' interval=[(quick assets-current liabilities)/daily operating expenses].
4-factor model of Davydova and Belikova (scientists of the Irkutsk State Economic Academy): Z=8,38*K1+K2+0,054*K3+ 0,64*K4 K1 - Working capital / Assets; K2 - Net profit / Capital; K3 - Sales revenue / Assets; K4 - Net profit / Cost of goods sold.
6-factor model of Zaytseva: Z=0,25*K1+0,1*K2+0,2* K3+0,25 *K4+0,1 *K5+0,1 * K6 K1 - Net loss / Capital; K2 - Accounts payable / Accounts receivable; K3 - Current liabilities / Cash + Short-term financial investments; K4 - Net loss / Sales revenue; K5 -Current and long-term liabilities / Capital; K6 - Total assets / Sales revenue.
5-factor model of Savitskaya: Z=0,111*K1+13,239*K2+ 1,676*K3+0,515*K4+3,8*K 5 K1 - Working capital / Current assets; K2 - Current assets / Non-current assets; K3 - Sales revenue / Average value of capital; K4 - Earnings before interest and taxes / Average assets; K5 - Capital / Balance currency.
Table 1 - Model for estimating the probabilities of enterprise bankruptcy.
For an illustrative example of the use of various methods for estimating the probability of bankruptcy, we chose "VotkinskyZavod" trade house. This enterprise is engaged mainly in the production of oil and metalworking equipment, as well as electrical household goods and consumer goods.
As the information base of the research, the company's accounting statements for 2013-2015 were used. [3]. The results of estimating the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise are presented in Table 2.
Table 2 - Estimating of the probability of bankruptcy of "VotkinskiyZavod" trade house.
Models Probability of bankruptcy
2013 2014 2015
2-factor model of the Altman Z-score Low Low Low
5-factor model of the Altman Z-score High Medium Low
4-factor model of Taffler and Tisshaw Low Low Low
4-factor model of Davydova and Belikova
(scientists of the Irkutsk State Economic Low Low Low
Academy)
6-factor model of Zaytseva High High High
5-factor model of Savitskaya Low Low Low
Based on the table above, it can be seen that most of the model for estimating the likelihood of bankruptcy showed a stable financial condition of the enterprise. However, there are also models that show that the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise to be high. Provided that we take the overall average as basis, we can say that "VotkinskyZavod" trade house is a financially stable enterprise.
The financial condition should be characterized not only by the qualitative side, but also have a quantitative dimension. The latter can be realized with the help of a rating valuation of financial condition, which is based on the theory of financial analysis of enterprises in the material production sphere under conditions of market relations.
Zimin N. E. gave the following definition of rating: "Rating is a method of comparative evaluation of several industry, region or competitor enterprise activities"^, 95].
The basis of the rating is a generalized characteristic of enterprises according to a certain system of indicators, which reflect their financial conditions.
To calculate the final estimating of the financial condition of the enterprise, the estimated coefficients that characterize the solvency and financial stability of the organization are calculated, and then the points are scored based on the coefficients obtained. Depending on the significance of each coefficient for evaluating the financial condition of the enterprise and the standards, scores for the valued of the coefficients and the weight of their changes are determined. Calculated by the actual values of the estimated coefficients, the sum of points allows us to determine which class of financial condition the enterprise belongs to.
Class boundaries for estimating the financial state of an organization on a point system are presented in Table 3.
Table 3 - Class boundaries of organizations according to the criteria for assessing the financial condition.
Class boundaries according to the criteria
1st class 2nd class 3rd class 4th class 5th class
From 97,6 to 100 points From 67.6 to 93.5 points From 37 to 64,4 points From 10,8 to 33,8 points From 0 to 7,6 points
1st class - includes absolutely solvent, fairly profitable organizations with a strong and stable financial position, in addition, having a rational structure of property sources.
2 nd class - includes, as a rule, profitable organizations with financial indicators close to optimal, therefore they can be considered as organizations of a normal financial state, nevertheless, for some factors, some lag is allowed.
3rd class - this class includes those organizations whose financial condition is estimated as an average.
4th class is an organization with little or no profit, so their financial condition can be considered unstable. Therefore, any relationship with them has a significant financial risk, besides, the profits of such organizations are sufficient only for compulsory payments to the budget.
5th class is insolvent and unprofitable organizations. They are absolutely unstable from the financial point of view, are in a crisis condition and cause only losses.
Next, we will conduct a rating evaluation of the company we are analyzing. The results are shown in Table 4.
In general, for the analyzed period, the financial condition of JSC "Trade House" VotkinskyZavod "slightly improved and it passed from the class of organizations with an unsustainable financial condition to the class of medium-sized enterprises. Consequently, we can state that in the near future bankruptcy of this organization does not threaten.
Table 4 - Rating evaluation of the financial condition of JSC "Trade House" VotkinskiyZavod ".
Indicators 2013 2014 2015
Actual value Number of points Actual value Number of points Actual value Number of points
1. 1. Absolute liquidity ratio 0,007 0 0,057 0,51 0,003 0
2. 2. Coefficient of critical evaluation 0,368 0 0,476 0,52 0,516 1,32
3. Coefficient of current liquidity 1,149 2,47 1,451 11,53 1,657 17,71
4. Share of working capital in assets 0,868 10 0,836 10 0,803 10
5. Coefficient of supply of SOS 0,113 0,89 0,153 2,09 0,233 4,49
6. Coefficient of capitalization 3,358 0 2,423 0 1,599 0
7. Coefficient of financial independence 0,229 0 0,292 0 0,385 4,4
8.Coefficient of financial stability 0,237 0 0,418 0 0,509 2
Total points, class of financial condition 4 13,36 4 24,65 3 39,92
Comparing the results of the rating evaluation with the deterministic factor models,it should be noted that the four-factor model of R. Tuffler, the five-factor model of G.V. Savitskaya and four-factor model GV. Davydova and A.Belikova correspond more to the estimation of the probability of bankruptcy for the analyzed organization.
Thus, it should be noted that not all of the bankruptcy forecasting techniques analyzed are uniquely applicable to all economic entities and in order to make a real assessment, an integrated approach is needed.
Sources of information:
1. Федеральный закон от 26.10.2002 № 127-ФЗ (ред. от 29.12.2015) "О несостоятельности (банкротстве)" (с изм. и доп., вступ. в силу с 29.03.2016) /Federal Law No. 127-FZ of October 26, 2002 (as amended on December 29, 2015) "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" (as amended and supplemented, effective as of March 29, 2016)
2. https://www.debt.org/bankruptcy/
3. Мазурова И. И., Белозерова Н. П., Леонова Т. М., Подшивалова М. М. Методы оценки вероятности банкротства предприятия: учеб. пособие. СПб: СПбГУЭФ, 2012,54 с./ Mazurova II, Belozerova NP, Leonova TM, Podshivalova MM Methods for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise: Textbook. Allowance. SPb: SPbGuEF, 2012.54 p.
4. Центр раскрытия корпоративной информации URL: http://www.e-disclosure.ru/ (дата обращения: 1.04.2016) ./Center for Disclosure of Corporate Information URL: http://www.e-disclosure.ru/ (reference date: 04/04/2016).
5. https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/filter--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
6. Зимин Н. Е., Солопова В. Н. Анализ и диагностика финансово-хозяйственной деятельности предприятия: учебник. 7-е изд. М: КолосС, 2007, 384 с.
6. Zimin N. Ye., Solopova VN Analysis and Diagnostics of the Financial and Economic Activity of the Enterprise: A Textbook. 7 th ed. M: Koloss, 2007, 384 p.
7. Донцова Л. В., Никифорова Н. А. Анализ бухгалтерской (финансовой)
отчетности: практикум. 5-е изд. М.: Дело и Сервис, 2015, 160 с.
7. Dontsova L. V., Nikiforova NA Analysis of accounting (financial) reporting: practical work. 5 th ed. Moscow: Case and Service, 2015, 160 p.
8.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/i.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x/full
УДК 94(575.2)
Tashbayeva G. Y. assistant of department "History of Uzbekistan" Namangan Engineering Pedagogical Institute
Uzbekistan, Namangan city Yuldashev Otabek
Student of Namangan Engineering Pedagogical Institute
Uzbekistan, Namangan city Ташбаева Г.Ю. ассистент
кафедра «Истории Узбекистана»
Юлдашев О. студент
Наманганский инженерно педагогический институт
Узбекистан, г. Наманган AMIR TEMUR: SOURCE OF POWER AND DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
FUTURE
Annotation: In this scientific article, Amir Temur and his activities, virtues are considered
Key words: history, struggle, culture, national, europe.
АМИР ТЕМУР: ИСТОЧНИК СИЛЫ И РАЗВИТИЯ БУДУЩЕГО
Аннотация: В данной научной статье рассмотрены Амир Темур и его деятельность, добродетели.
Ключевые слова: история, борьба, культура, национал, европа.
As the first President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov noted, "The perception of Amir Temur's identity means the perception of history. To understand Amir Temur means to understand ourselves. To exaggerate Amir Temur means to strengthen our faith in the great future of the country, relying on our roots deep in history, on Our culture and power ... The image of our great ancestor will constantly evoke in our people a sense of pride, give us strength and aspiration ..."
After achieving independence, as a result of the tremendous work to restore historical justice and national pride of our people, a rich historical heritage and names of many great ancestors were revived. A special place in their row is occupied by the symbol of courage, courage and wisdom, national pride of our people Sahibkiran Amir Temur.
A wide range of issues related to military campaigns, life and activities of Amir Temur, was reflected not only in the studies of representatives of the domestic oriental and historical schools, but also in foreign literature. That's what
