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2017.01.020. A. MANOILO. "SOFT POWER" OF TERRORISTS //
"Strategia Rossii", Moscow, 2016, № 5, May, P. 5-60.
Keywords: terrorist groups, "soft power" system of ideology and propaganda, "worldwide Islamic caliphate," ISIS, "Taliban", "Al-Qaeda", "Dzhabhat en-Nusra", "Muslim Brotherhood", "soft Islamists" Islamism, Islamic modernism, " Crusaders"
A. Manoilo,
Dr. Sc. (Political) Professor, Political Science Department, Moscow State University,Member of the Scientific Council of the Russian Federation Security Council
The author describes the main Islamic terrorist groups in accordance with the tasks, he describes the use of appropriate models of "soft power", and malso examines the possible development of the situation in Syria.
The main ideological goal of ISIS is to create a quasi-state entity "worldwide Islamic caliphate", copying Muslim autocracies of the Middle Ages and living on medieval canon. This idea is not modern at all, it does not lead to the creation of the state, capable to compete with existing national formations, and therefore short-lived.
A state doctrine of the Taliban consists in a simple formula: "The country without crusaders", without assuming any change of state borders of Afghanistan, but only a change of the form of government and political regime. "Al-Qaeda" denies the sovereignty of the nation-state and does not recognize the demarcation lines drawn "by crusaders" to determine the territorial boundaries of nation-states, arguing that the terrorist network of "Al-Qaeda" is extraterritorial, by definition.
One of the main factors of stability of terrorist groups is the system of ideology and propaganda (as well as the smuggling of oil and cultural values), which is called more and more
often "soft power" of Islamists in recent years. Recruiters of ISIS, "Taliban", "Al-Qaeda" in their activities involve not only the Muslim youth, but also new converts among the Christians due to the well- organized ideological, agitation and propaganda activity.
Islamists of ISIS, "Al-Qaeda" and other groups can lead an armed struggle against the entire Western world over the years through their own model of "soft power", replenishing resources at the expense of support from political parties, movements, associations, diaspora communities, legally operating worldwide and sharing their views and political positions. They compensate for combat casualties, hire professionals to information warfare and cyber-intelligence, economy, oil production and exploration of mineral resources, public administration and local government.
This is especially true for the association of "Muslim Brotherhood", which actively involves highly educated intellectuals, university professors, leading scientists, analysts, representatives of national political elites in its ranks. They are used as agents and distribution channels of "soft power" for the development of new models of ideological influence on individual and mass consciousness of citizens in the different countries.
Concepts such as social justice, equality, absence of caste, clan, tribal differences, fraternity, mutual help and mutual support, i.e. collectivism is actively used in the ideology of all these Islamic groups.
Young people are taught that they will live even in a tough, but fair world, where there is the same justice for the rich and for the poor, and for warlords, and ordinary mojaheds. It is sufficient to leave home and go to war on the side of ISIS in Libya, Syria or Iraq.
Not only young people from the lowest, poorest sections of society, but also the children of wealthy parents go to ISIS, they give all their possessions in the ISIS property under
the influence of emotional impulse, supported by "soft power", and become as poor as mojaheds who came from distant villages. None of the political scientists can explain this phenomenon properly.
The author suggests that officials of the party "Baas" have developed a pseudo-revolutionary ideology for ISIS, taking many of ideology of the "Baath", the Arabic revival and pan-Arabism. It is no coincidence, as many administration officials of Saddam Hussein and his military have been educated in the Soviet Union. Propagandists of ISIS often say that they have replaced the Soviet Union in the struggle for justice, equality and brotherhood in the world.
In 2006, when ISIS was formed on the basis of the Iraq "Al-Qaeda" cell and under participation of the CIA, twelve Sunni groups consisting of former soldiers and officers of the army of Saddam Hussein and former officials of the party "Baas" entered its ranks.
The author writes that "soft power" "of Taliban" consists of three levels, as it was. There are ideological foundations and ideological concepts for each of them. This is due to the fact that there are three different generations of leaders in the "Taliban", and they have different values and world views.
The older generation is represented by the warlords, who fought with the Soviet Union, and then with the Northern Alliance. They were uncompromising in relation to the enemies; as "foreign invaders" and their opponents within the country. Today, they realize that their life has passed in the battle, and there was no opportunity to enjoy the wealth and high position, they are quite peaceable, restraining the enthusiasm of the younger generation of warlords.
The second generation is the field commanders who joined "Taliban" during the fight with the Northern Alliance, but prior to the invasion of the U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan. The basic ideology of this generation is patriotism. They believe that the war will end, when the last foreign soldier leaves the land
of Afghanistan; or be killed. Ideology and "soft power" of the second generation of the Taliban are of a distinct national character of the state. They are in irreconcilable hostility to the jihadists of ISIS and other similar groups, for which national interests, sovereignty and borders of any state are nothing, but the global jihad is the only purpose of their existence.
The third generation of fighters are born and brought up in a permanent war of all against all in Afghanistan, who joined "Taliban" movement after the start of the fight against KFOR. They are jihadists who believe ISIS to be an example of true Islamic state. Members of the older generation of "Taliban" commanders are an annoying hindrance to them, which should be eliminated.
These features of the generations define ideology and "soft power" of "Taliban" that can not but interfere with each other even within the same movement. In contrast to "Taliban" and ISIS, "Al-Qaeda" is a terrorist organization, based on the network principle and consisting of separate, independently operating terrorist cells. They have a high degree of freedom in the choice of strategies, tactics, goals, targets and forms of terrorist attacks.
The ideology of "Al-Qaeda" is based on two main principles. The first is the fight against the infidels and foreign invaders, which they call "Crusaders." The second principle is to ignore state borders and other formal separation barriers, defining the modern world order. The terrorists do not accept the nation-state as the main actors of international relations.
"Al-Qaeda" is a transnational corporation, which aims to transform the political world. There are its own corporate values at the core ideology of the "Al-Qaeda" to ensure the cohesion of all the participants in the network, regardless of the geographical distance of its cells and the control center. Only then the ideologies of pan-Islamism, jihadism, the struggle with the onset
of the Christian world - with those "Crusaders": Russia, the U.S. and the EU - are appearing on the background.
"Muslim Brotherhood" is a terrorist group, which many politicians and experts like to call "soft Islamist" for some reason. "Muslim Brothers" prefer to buy local elites and do the same thing by proxy.
"Muslim Brotherhood" is based on its own corporate values in the model of "soft power", being a geographically distributed network of the terrorist organization as "Al-Qaeda". The most important of them, after the imperative of "the unity of all the faithful Muslims", is the reliance on a high level of intelligence and education of among the leadership; on the production of management decisions by using their own resources, "think tanks" where intellectuals accumulated from across the Muslim world. "Muslim Brotherhood" works through sympathizing representatives of political, scientific and financial elite, which representatives are holding the real levers of control of these or other countries.
"Muslim Brotherhood" has its own foreign policy concept, where nation-states and international organizations are integrated. The leading role in this concept is given to the form of the participation of "Muslim Brotherhood" in the formation of the global agenda and in solving international problems with which it plans to fight creating its own "volition coalitions."
The Russian Federation has to fight with these models of "soft power" of various terrorist organizations on different fronts, both virtual and very real, like the war in Syria. At the same time Russia is using its own model of "soft power" in counter-ideological struggle against Islamist groups, based on the firm determination to defend the legitimate right of peoples to choose their own destiny and leaders. Russian "soft power" is also based on the concept of justice, but fundamentally different from what it meant by Islamists.
The author believes that the armed conflict in Syria will continue for a very long time. The complexity of the Syrian situation is that the influential world powers have been involved in it - the U.S., Russia, the EU and regional leaders. Their vital interests diverge significantly in the region. The main thing for Russia - a quick victory over international terrorism, the destruction of ISIS and other terrorist groups and the restoration of peace; for the Syrian people - the ability to live peacefully, to raise children, vote freely for the future of the country; for the U.S. - the destruction of ISIS is not a priority, more important - to remove Assad, using ISIS and other "opposition" at first, and then make its European allies to deal with the terrorists. That is the strategic goal of the U.S. - to send Syria along the Libyan way.
Syria may be facing the threat of a color revolution that will be developed under the classical scenario. If Assad will receive a majority of votes in the elections (the author believes that it will be, as the population in the territories liberated from ISIS, will vote for Assad unanimously), the "moderate opposition" will challenge the election results, declare their non-recognition, and a color revolution will grow into armed rebellion rapidly. Then there will be a civil war and the Syrian army will keep the front line against the terrorist international of jihadists from around the world. That is the same as is happening now in Syria. However, there is hope that Russia will destroy the plans of enemies of the Syrian people again.
The author of the abstract -- N. Ginesina
