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and Southeast Asia, including South Korea and China. It is impossible to imagine a state which is not built into the system of world economic relations in the global economy. However, the degree of relationship may be different. This dependence on the world can be reflected in a number of areas in Russia, including provision of the country with strategic goods (food, medicine, technology, components for cars). The main partners in the country's trade balance are: the EU countries (42.2% of imports and 53.8% of total exports), APEC (34.3% of imports and 18.9% of exports); The EAEC (13% of imports and 14% of exports).
The largest of them are China and Germany. The dependence is not uniform in the Russian regions of the economic sanctions of the West. There are several areas where the industry can expect some decline. The sanctions for the Russian oil and gas companies on the export of technologies can complicate maintenance of the current rate of resource extraction on dwindling oil fields in West Siberia. But steel companies and mining companies can get the benefit of the introduction of sanctions.
The author of the abstract - V. Schensnovich
2016.10.002. O. KARPOVICH. ON THE FEATURES OF RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL POSITION IN THE MODERN WORLD // "Vestnik Rossiyskoy natsii", Moscow, 2015. № 6. P. 206-214. The abstract of the article.
Keywords: globalization, global economic space, convergence, economic and cultural integration, knowledge economy, innovative upgrade, geopolitical conflict, geopolitical competition, socio-demographic component, population decline, the postbipolar world.
O. Karpovich,
D. Sc. (Politics), Professor, Head of the Centre
for Comparative Legal Studies (USA and Canada Institute,
Russian Academy of Sciences)
The author relies on the assumption that the modern world -a world of global competition, and each country aspiring to the role of a great power to be competitive in the geopolitical, geo-economic, socio-demographic and geo-cultural forms of struggle.
According to the author, the leading trend in the development of international relations is the strengthening of the economic component of competition in the context of globalization, which is expressed primarily in rivalry of national economies.
Globalization is a dominant and complex process, involving political, economic, cultural, informational, technological components and identifying the contours of the global economic space. Competition between states in the geo-economic sphere increases with the development of globalization and convergence, the formation of a single world market. These processes make a state dependent on the competitiveness of its national economy, more and more.
Uncompetitive countries lose their military and political potential the lag in the standard of living increases, such countries become socially and politically unstable. Defeat in the geo-economic war is a prerequisite for the loss of sovereignty, becoming a "failed state", the authorities are unable to control its territorial integrity, as well as demographic, social, economic, etc. situation. In 2005 the American magazine "Foreign Policy" and the NGO "American Peace Fund" introduced index of failed states.
The most important factor ensuring the success of the processes of globalization is technological progress, dissemination of modern information and communication technologies, creation and development of the global Internet. Scientific and technological revolution was a powerful catalyst for the
development of the unifying trends, convergence, economic and cultural integration of different countries and peoples since the 1960s.
The key point determining the development of the world economic space in the 21st century is the innovative nature of the economy. Vector of contemporary development in many countries is shifting more and more towards an innovative model of functioning of the economy, based on the use of rapidly growing intellectual resources. The rapid increase in population and the increase in the social significance of the so-called "creative class" are observed almost everywhere. The "new economy" or "knowledge economy" is based on creativity and knowledge, 9/10 world of scientific knowledge has been created over the past three decades.
Therefore, the author writes, the growing influence of the world economy on the socio-economic development of Russia will take place against the backdrop of tightening global competition, increasing the role of innovative development factors in the leading countries, and restructuring of the world economic order. The role of the external economic policy increases substantially as one of the most important factors of socio-economic development of Russia, the innovative upgrade and improving the competitiveness of its economy, as well as the implementation of national priorities and resolution of key social challenges.
The main geopolitical conflict of modern times appears the struggle between the United States competing for the world hegemony, and independent geopolitical actors that defend their right to be independent and play their own role in world politics.
The main resource of geopolitical competition are armed forces, nuclear potential, military and political blocs, government involvement in international organizations, influence on geopolitical processes, the international authority of the state. An important role is played by the degree of activity of the state in solving the main problems of world politics, its involvement in the
resolution of political conflict, implementation of mediation, participation in peacekeeping operations.
The author notes that there are significant benefits of the five powers - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France, ensuring the predominance in the political competition. These powers act as intermediaries in the major geopolitical conflicts and participate in peacekeeping operations more frequently than others as, first, they have the status of permanent members of the UN Security Council and thus have a decisive impact on global policy, secondly, they have the greatest military potential, and third, they have nuclear weapons.
The author points to the increase in the socio-demographic component of global competition. Today, the world population stands more than 7 billion people, it can reach 9 billion people by 2045, according to forecasts. The birth rate is below the required for simple reproduction of the population in developed countries, the total fertility rate in developing countries is more than 4 hildren per woman.
Life expectancy is increasing in most regions: it is 67.2 years on average worldwide, 76.5 years - in developed countries and 65.4 years - in developing countries, but only 54.6 in the least developed countries (where there is serious negative impact of HIV / AIDS). In the future, the world's population will grow old, and even more people will live in cities than at present. Increase of population will be observed mainly in the cities of developing countries. By 2050, 70% of the population is likely to live in cities.
There is a population decline in Russia, due to the low birth rate and high mortality due to the demographic crisis, intensified social problems, low population density, which may provoke a violation of the country's territorial integrity and the normal functioning of the Russian economy. However, Russia is still among the top ten largest states' population. A significant number of migrants, entering the country each year, is the evidence of its attractiveness, especially for the population of the post-Soviet
countries, the author notes. There was a positive trend in the birth rate and mortality fall in the demographic situation in recent years.
We must recognize that international relations in the postbipolar world have become more unpredictable, complex and contradictory. A place of one global conflict has been occupied by a variety of cultural and civilization conflicts.
The main conflict between civilizations is the confrontation of the West, striving for world hegemony, and other civilizations, defending their independence. Examples of such processes are the Ukrainian crisis of 2013-2015, as well as Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism - the emergence of ISIS.
The author notes that the leading role in today's global competition takes not a direct use of armed force, but an indirect one, the so-called methods of "soft power". "Soft power" includes the country's mass culture, understood as a collection of important for the society: values, standards and lifestyles, national achievements; political ideology, including the basic ideas (for example, classical liberalism), models (the same market economy), the interpretation of the world and national history; "people's diplomacy" of non-governmental organizations and ordinary citizens.
Over the last 15 years Russia has managed to regain position of the world economic leader, to restore the competitiveness of the national economy, lost after the collapse of the USSR and the fall of the economy in the course of unsuccessful reform of the socioeconomic sphere of the country. The budget deficit has been eliminated, the external debt has been paid, significant reserves have been accumulated.
Natural resources, huge reserves of oil and gas play an important role in the Russian economy. At present, Russia has become an energy superpower, playing a leading role in the global energy market, along with the OPEC countries. However, the development of raw material economy will inevitably lead to the dependence on imports of goods and technology, retaining the role of a raw material appendage of the world economy.
The military potential has a leading role in the global political competition. Modern world-system is unstable, the degree of conflict in international relations and security threats on a global scale are increased. More than half of the total increase military expenditures fall on the U.S. share, and the total military expenditures of NATO countries make up 2/3 of the world military expenditures. The U.S. and its allies are seeking to secure a dominant position in the military sphere. Constantly increasing rate of growth of China's military spending is impressive.
In the 1990s, Russia has lost many of the ideological orientations, allowing the Russian society previously to resist attempts of destruction and assimilation successfully from other civilizations. Until the 19th century Orthodoxy was this ideological core, in the 20th century - communism. If in the next few years Russia will not make a modernization breakthrough in key areas, it will have the unenviable fate: The country is not only ceases to play any significant role in international relations, but it can be divided into spheres of influence among the more fortunate geopolitical competitors.
The author outlines the geopolitical threats to national security of Russia, which are related to expansion of the West, hybrid warfare and "color revolutions".
The author of the abstract- N. Ginesina
